Monday’s Racing Tips – Mumford can work some magic on his chase debut at Stratford

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Fair to see the French selections didn't live up to what I was expecting.

Believing ran her usual race, and I think it might be time to give up on her over 5f as she had little to argue with today, with only herself to blame. She appeared to not have the pace in early stages to get herself a prominent position, and when she was running on late, she didn't have enough track to catch up. In my opinion, she has to go up in trip and run over 6f.

Shin Emperor was woeful in the Arc and apparently didn't handle the preliminaries well, and like Leopardstown he was keen throughout most of the race, leaving him with no chance of winning.

Ylang Ylang was the worst of the three. She is not living up to what connections thought she could turn out to be, and even with Ryan Moore keeping the faith in her on multiple occasions, she simply isn't that good.

As stated in recent weeks, with Cairnzy being more busy now and chipping in with selections when he can, it makes sense to track Rizzel's Profit/Loss

(July) -11.5pts

(August) +12.828pts

(September) -3.505pts

October so far -0.436pts

Rizzel's Tips

Rebel Intentions 14/1 Each Way – Stratford 2.42

Whenever possible I am going to be punting on the jumps meetings from here on out, as this is the type of racing I prefer and seem to do better at. My first selection of Monday is Rebel Intentions in this conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle.

This looks like a muddling race as quite a few in this do have a chance of winning based on old pieces of form, but not many of them come into the race with good form or a run under their belt. Eurkash will definitely be short in the market as his trainer is in great form, as is the rider, but I won't be getting sucked into backing him again, especially over hurdles as he has a woeful record in this sphere. I eventually thought that Rebel Intentions was worth a shot on his seasonal reappearance as he has proven himself capable of winning a race at this level, when winning a Class 4 (0-120) at Ascot, which was definitely a stronger race than this.

He is running off a 1lb higher mark than his Ascot win, which makes him a dangerous horse to look past, as that is definitely the strongest piece of form from any of these horses in the last 12 months. Since that win, he has been very inconsistent with another good effort at Ascot on the run after his win, once again in a Class 4 race but over slightly longer than today's trip. After that run, he has put in some stinkers, but based on his runs at the start of his campaign from August to November, his form read 1213, and as we're now in October I think the time to catch him might be now.

He won on his seasonal reappearance last year from a 106-day layoff, so seeing him turning up to this race without a run isn't a huge concern. The ground also shouldn't be a problem for him as his win at Ascot was on soft, and I think the track could also be in his favour too as his first win of last year came at Fontwell which is a tight track, and then he ran well at Plumpton the time after, which is another tight track.

Out of any, I actually thought Current Mood was one of the likeliest dangers as she has fallen down the ratings in fast style over the last few seasons.

Mumford's Magic 4/1 – Stratford 3.52

Dan Skelton has hit the ground running in the new jumps season, especially with his chasers who have been operating at a 28% SR. I think backing chase debutantes blind is generally a bad tactic, but Dan is no stranger to improving a horse when sending them chasing and his debutantes over fences are normally very clued up so I am more than happy to take a chance on Mumford's Magic.

Ballycamus bring the best form into the race at the top of the weights, but he seems to be on a tough enough mark off 122 and running on soft ground whilst carrying 12st 2lbs makes this a very tough ask despite it not being the strongest of races. Post Chaise has done his winning over further, so the stamina advantage he will have on the rest of the field will be nice but I think he lacks the speed, especially in a small field where it will likely be tactical. The Boola Boss seems more at home on good ground and Balkardy is more than capable of turning up, and I am surprised to see the price of 20/1 for him, so watch the market on him as that seems massively overpriced, but watching the market is normally the thing to do with that stable.

So with what has been said above it left me thinking this could be a nice opportunity for Mumford's Magic to make a winning chase debut. He has some decent pieces of form over hurdles, enough to suggest he is on a decent enough mark of 108. He was 3rd/6 on soft ground behind Minella Double at Hexham and then 2nd/13 at the same track but on heavy behind Great Pepper. The form of the latter race has been franked as the winner went on to win with ease on his next start and is now rated 121.

Dan Skelton must think that this lad was on a decent mark when running off 110 as he was pitched into a Class 3 at Sandown. He didn't run well on that day, but the intent of them chucking him into such a competitive race is a good insight that they rate him higher than his current handicap mark of 108.

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