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Not exactly a no-show from yesterday’s Nap with Red Treasure running reasonably in third, but she likely hit the front too soon and the writing was on the wall more than a furlong from home. Isn’t the first such performance and it certainly won’t be the last. A new week now begins.
| Wolverhampton - 20:00 |
Arenas Del Tiempo |
8/1 |
On Monday, we turn our focus to the all-weather meeting at Wolverhampton, where ahead of the penultimate race, Arenas Del Tiempo looks on the large side at early odds of 8/1.
Following a 118-day break, the mare returned at Lingfield last time out, finishing second (of 9) in a race not dissimilar to this, suggesting that her time is near. She’s gone up 2 lbs in the weights for that encouraging effort, but remains below her last winning mark and with that under her belt, she ought to make her presence felt tonight.
Can clearly get competitive at this level
The mount of Joe Leavy, who takes off a handy 3 lbs tonight, is no stranger to running well at this level, winning one and placing in two of her previous Class 6 contests.
Not to be ignored is the fact that this runner was performing credibly in Class 5 contests around this time last year, finishing third at Windsor and second at Epsom. If recreating that sort of form on tapeta debut, she won’t be far away, that’s for sure.
Well drawn, the mare, who has won better races than this on the turf, should get a decent position here, while the likely pace of this contest, with Dubawi Time expected to make the running, should suit. She should be able to attack the chief protagonists from off the pace, tactics that have worked well previously. Trainer Suzi Best also has an eye-catching strike rate of 33.33% (in the last year) when putting Joe Leavy in the saddle. The pair have a 66.66% win/place strike rate during that time. Could this be another shrewd booking of the apprentice from Best? It might just be.
All in all, the six-year-old has plenty in favour here and simply ticks more boxes than early odds of 8/1 would have us believe, leaving value available for early bettors.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day running profit is +£44 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
Why does a horse get a penalty for finishing 2nd? Is it not only when they win?
My guess is that the handicapper felt her mark was too lenient and has thus nudged her up. It’s not officially a penalty, her rating has just been adjusted as there has been enough time between her last run and this race for that to happen. She was beaten by a runner that may be perceived as being easily ahead of its mark, while she finished over two lengths ahead of the third horse, who was clear of the rest. First time that she’d run on the surface for a good amount of time, perhaps prompting the assessor to feel that she would be too generously handicapped if left alone.
Not good today ?