Tips for Grand National

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We're now into Grand National week. On Thursday, the Randox Grand National Festival will take place at Aintree Racecourse, where both those in attendance and those watching on television will be treated to three days of premier jumps racing.

As far as ante post tips go, this is late in the day, but the final declarations are still a few days away, so what the hell. Let's get stuck in and see if we can sniff out some early (just about) value ahead of Saturday's Aintree extravaganza.

Ante post Tips: Our top 5 favourites for the 2024 Grand National

Horse Odds Win probabillity

Meetingofthewaters

12/1

7.7%

Limerick Lace

25/1

3.8%

Adamantly Chosen

50/1

2%

Vanillier

10/1

9.1%

Mr Incredible

14/1

6.7%

Meetingofthewaters – 12/1

  • Ireland
  • Seven-year-old gelding
  • Carries 10st, 7lbs
  • Trained by Willie Mullins
  • Looked ready for this sort of test when third in big handicap at Cheltenham last time out

The seven-year-old Meetingofthewaters is the closest of the Willie Mullins group to his much-fancied stablemate I Am Maximus in the early betting and there's probably a reason for that. In fact, I'd argue that he should be a little bit closer and likely will be come the off.

This horse has barely put a foot wrong this season. He won well at Cork back in November, before winning the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in late December. That win was impressive, prompting the handicapper to hit him with a chunky rise in the weights. He blundered and unseated at the first when again going at Leopardstown in February, but he showed that such an occurrence had no ill-effects when finishing third in a red-hot handicap chase at Cheltenham last month. If staying the trip here, he's got a clear chance from the same mark.

It's also worth noting that in recent times, those who've done well in the Ultima at Cheltenham have gone on to run well in the Grand National. In fact, each of the last two winners of this contest have come into the race off the back of good performances in that race, so we probably should not ignore the fact that this horse ran a blinder in third.

Limerick Lace – 25/1

  • Ireland
  • Seven-year-old mare
  • Carries 10st, 7lbs
  • Trained Gavin Cromwell
  • Won five of last eight starts over fences

Gavin Cromwell's runner bids to become the first mare to land this prestigious prize since 1951 and if being ‘well in' at the weights has as big a part to play as it did for Corach Rambler last year, then she may just do it. The seven-year-old is currently rated 7 lbs higher in the handicap than when the weights for this race were released, which in theory means that she's a better horse than the weight she'll be carrying suggests.

In the silks of famous owner and legendary punter JP Mcmanus, Limerick Lace has impressed of late. She ended 2023 by winning a Listed chase at Doncaster in fine style, looking like a horse with loads more to give, which she proved when winning the Mares' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last month. She also gone well over three miles before, keeping on in second in a very decent handicap chase at Navan back in November, so I really wouldn't rush to write her off going up in trip here. With 25/1 currently available, she's my idea of a decent each-way bet.

Adamantly Chosen – 50/1

  • Ireland
  • Seven-year-old gelding
  • Carries 10st, 8lbs
  • Trained by Willie Mullins
  • Won when going beyond three miles for the first time recently

Another Mullins-trained runner, Adamantly Chosen may just be slipping under the radar a little in the early betting. Like Limerick Lace, he too is ‘well in' at the weights. He's due to go up after this, so it wouldn't be much of a surprise if he runs well from what may turn out to be a lenient mark. After all, his win when stepping beyond three miles for the first time at Down Royal was decisive. He looked to have loads in reserve that day, shaping as if further would suit. Soft ground is also clearly his bag, so there are no concerns there, while he again has that Mullins factor, which cannot be ignored.

Vanillier – 10/1

  • France
  • Nine-year-old gelding
  • Carries 10st, 11lbs
  • Gavin Cromwell
  • Second in Grand National in 2023

Second in this race last year, Vanillier should realistically have a decent chance of reversing the form with Corach Rambler, who is now carrying lots more weight.

Also trained by Gavin Cromwell, the eight-year-old will have been aimed at this race once again, and it's always nice to have at least one horse with previous National form on side. He was well beaten by Willie Mullins current leading charge (I Am Maximus) at Fairyhouse last time out, though this ultra test of stamina is much more up his street, as he's proved on several occasions, so don't be surprised if he once again gets round and is there pitching at the death.

Mr Incredible – 14/1

  • Ireland
  • Eight-year-old gelding
  • Carries 10st, 10lbs
  • Trained by Willie Mullins
  • Has run some huge races in big staying events, including last time out in Midlands National

There's lots to like about Mr Incredible, not least the fact that he's trained by Willie Mullins. In addition to his two winners in this race, National Hunt's god-like figure has saddled seven placed horses, while he's had more horses finish the race in the last 20 renewals than any other trainer who has a runner this year.

Certainly unlucky not to have yet scooped a big prize over fences, the eight-year-old has run some crackers, especially last time out when he was beaten less than two lengths into second in the Midlands National. That effort is some of the best recent form on offer, let's face it. That was also his first run in 336 days, so there's every chance that he'll step forward in terms of both fitness and race readiness. At early odds of 14/1, as far as I'm concerned, he's definitely one to be with each-way.

What are Ante Post tips on the Grand National?

Typically speaking ante post tips are tips that are published before the final declarations for a race are made. In other words, these are tips that are made while the race is still some way away, such as weeks or even months before the off. Of course, with ante post bets, there's always the risk that your horse won't end up being declared to run, but that's all part of the ante-post game. Bettors tend to choose ante-post bets in an attempt to get bigger odds than they would if they waited until nearer the time of the race.

How do we go about choosing Grand National tips?

Of course, there's no exact science, especially when it comes to the Grand National. Backing the winner of a run-of-the-mill jumps race is hard enough, so finding the winner of this incredibly tough contest is very, very difficult.

Above all, I'm looking for horses that stand out at the prices rather than simply looking for the most likely winner. Aside from that, we look at a variety of factors, such as which horses appear ‘well in' at the weights, which horses may have been aimed at this race, how trainers have performed with similar-looking runners in the past. We're also looking to see if horses fit certain race trends. There's lots that goes into arriving at a Grand National Ante Post tip, but above all, we've dug deep into the form book, put the time in and worked hard to find horses that look nicely priced ahead of the world's most famous steeplechase.

FAQ about Grand National Ante Post Tips

Who is the favourite for the Grand National in 2024?

Corach Rambler, who won the race a year ago, is the early favourite for the 2024 Grand National, and a strong favourite at that.

Who are the most successful trainers?

Of those involved this year, over the last 20 renewals of the race, Gordon Elliott is the most successful Grand National trainer with three previous wins. Lucinda Russell comes next with two Grand National wins, while Willie Mullins, Jonjo O'Neill, Venetia Williams, Henry De Bromhead, M F Morris, Martin Brassil and Emmet Mullins all have one win each.

Related Topic: Racing Tips
1 Comment
  1. double carpet 2 months ago

    Ground conditions have to be taken into account big time as its looking like it will be soft at best so worth looking for mud larks who stay all day.

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