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When I saw both Thursday selections drift in the market, I thought of the worst outcome.
The Ryan Potter horse, who drifted out, was a bit of a shock. With Ryan having a very good record in the race, seeing his runner with Sean Bowen in the saddle drift massively was strange.
It turns out the drift was correct, but he did shape better than his odds suggested. He jumped well and only got tired just before two from home.
However, the small drift on Pilsden Pen was wrong.
Jeremy Scott managed to get his horse ready to fire first time out this season, and Lorcan Williams gave him a brilliant ride. It was crucial that the horse was on the right stride over the last couple of fences, and Lorcan played a big part.
Astronomic View 9/2 (1pt) – Exeter 3.05
This marathon race is a strange race, as not all are proven over the trip, and the ones that are aren't in great form.
Art Decco won this race twelve months ago and is on an okay handicap mark, so he would be the safe option. Unfortunately, I don't do safe options, and I am going to take a risk on Astronomic View.
Straight away, I noticed Sue Gardner's daughter wasn't riding. Lucy normally rides the majority of Sue's horses, but this year, she hasn't ridden too many, and I think she is struggling to make weight for a lot of these rides. Sean Houlihan has ridden the most for Sue this year, so it's nothing to worry about.
Astronomic View is not guaranteed to stay the trip, but he is an interesting runner. He has won over 3m 2f in the past, and did it nicely. The other times over 3m didn't go to plan for the vast majority, but they are happy to try it again, which gives me confidence.
Belle Brise 16/1 (1pt) – Sedgefield 3.20
Tom Ellis has made a nice transition to professional horse training from the PTP world. He is getting the backing of some good owners, and I think he is a talented trainer.
He is 2/4 with his runners at Sedgefield, and whenever a smaller yard go on long journeys like today with Belle Brise, it always stands out.
We have a Skelton runner, who won on bumper debut, so they were always going to a short price. The level of that win doesn't look outstanding, and the others in the race haven't produced a top level performance either.
My selection was poor on bumper debut, and wasn't fancied to run well. However, he has a good jumps pedigree, and maybe isn't going to excel in bumpers, but why would they travel to Sedgefield if they didn't think she was going to run well?
This is the sole ride for Jack Andrews, and the only runner of the day for Tom Ellis.
If this horse was going to be a long-term project, and they weren't fussed about bumpers, surely they would have kept him to the local tracks rather than spending plenty on fuel and making it a wasted journey.
At odds of 16/1, I am more than happy to take a chance.
GambleAware