Unfortunately, Cairnzy's Thursday runner at Wincanton, Drash On Ruby was a faller with a few hurdles to jump. She was going okay at the time but tumbled three from home, so it's hard to say whether she would've won, and that is a guessing game. She will come again and hopefully, that fall won't dampen her love for jumping an obstacle.
Rizzel's tips
Valadon 16/1 EW – Exeter 3.10
For Friday's racing, I have picked out a couple of horses at decent odds. My first selection is Valadon who runs in the 3.10 at Exeter in an extended 2m handicap hurdle Class 4.
On paper, this looks like a very competitive race, as long as King Of The Lake is feeling fatigued from his recent win just a week ago. The horse I've just mentioned is going to be a short price as his handicap mark hasn't been altered yet and Chad Bament is showing what a good claimer he is and with him removing 7lbs from his mount, he is the one to beat. However, I thought that Valadon was worth a punt towards the bottom of the weights as he is still a very young horse and he did show some good level of form last season when he was a juvenile hurdler.
Harry Fry's five-year-old hasn't gotten off to a great start from his two starts this season, but reverting back to Exeter might be able to unlock the potential we saw from him last year where he managed to win two times from his first three starts. Juvenile form is always up for debate and a lot of the time when they transition out of that level and go into open company, their handicap marks are often overinflated. Based on his two runs this year, the same comments could be applied to my selection, but if you go back to when he beat Wreckless Eric last January, that form line looks tremendous. The runner-up is now a 127-rated horse and has been running very well in some decent handicaps, for example, finishing second in a Class 3 at Cheltenham in December, as well as finishing 3.5L behind the winner in a £57k handicap at Windsor earlier this year. Back in fourth place at Newbury was Dameofthecotswolds who has also improved massively this year and is now rated 125, which is 22lbs higher than when she raced against Valadon.
I' ‘ve mentioned that Exeter has been a good venue for Valadon in his short career to date and that's because he got his first win on his second run at this track. On his first run he finished as runner-up to Salver who has since become a very useful Grade 2/3 hurdler and is currently rated 148.
Ardera Cross 50/1 EW – Ayr 4.40
It is a surprise that Ardera Cross is still racing at the age of fourteen, but it goes to show that connections still firmly believe he can compete at his level and do himself justice. In my opinion, this race isn't that strong and I think we can see an upset here, and that's why I've gone with Ardera Cross who will hopefully turn back the years and show the younger horses how to jump a fence around Ayr.
It's not ideal seeing a horse have more letters in their recent form than numbers, but that's why my selection is the price he is. He has been pulled up on his last three starts, so he has it all to prove, but if there was ever a track he was going to bounce back at, it's Ayr. Though his strike rate at this track is 22%, I still think you can call him a course specialist as he has racked up eight wins at this track over the years.
It's not a great surprise to see me say that he is well-handicapped, but he is and that's the bare facts of the matter. He is now rated 84, which puts him 10lbs below his last winning mark which came in January of last year. I think there are a couple of strong contenders in this race, but other than that, I think the others have a fair bit to prove as well, so if worst case scenario he runs into a place, I'll be more than happy, but obviously my intentions are to land a big priced winner.
Ardera Cross seems to be a spring horse. He has put in his winning runs in February or Match in recent years, with the occasional January win, so with the ground drying out slightly, we might see him enjoying his racing a bit more. Sean Quinlan is a good jockey booking on him as he has won on him twice before, as well as a couple of runner-up placements with Sean in the saddle. Hopefully, Sean will go from the front on the old boy and get him into a lovely rhythm and if he does, then it'll be interesting to see if they can catch him.
