Well, it’s fair to say that Thursday’s Nap certainly ran better than very chunky early odds indicated that he would, with Inedit Star picking up some lovely place money in third. A pleasing result indeed.
| Aintree - 17:15 |
Old Gregorian |
20/1 (each way, 5 places) |
Moving on to Friday’s action, ahead of which I’m interested in the final race at Aintree. Like most races at meetings of this nature, it looks competitive, but down towards the foot of the weights, I cannot help but be drawn to Old Gregorian, who recently ran as if he’d have a big handicap of this nature in his locker before long when running on for third in a valuable contest at Kelso.
Lucinda Russell’s six-year-old remains reasonably lightly campaigned, and based on that most recent effort, where he did little wrong, I’d be surprised if a mark of 123 turned out to be his ceiling.
Gets his optimum race conditions on this occasion
Aintree is typically referred to as a flat track, but there are some undulations and it’s fair to say that strong travellers do well here. From out the back, this lad travelled into the race nicely at Kelso last time out , which bodes well, as does his record on left-handed tracks of his nature, where he has three wins and one second (from four runs) to his name.
I also think it’s interesting that Connor McCann stays in the saddle after Kelso. A similarly quiet ride would likely go down well at Aintree, while it must be said that this rider has a decent record on similar types for Lucinda Russell having previously ridden 32 horses in bumpers or hurdles, on good-to-soft or better, carrying less than 11-3. From those 32, he’s ridden ten winners, placing with a further nine, achieving a win/place strike rate of 59%, which isn’t easy to ignore.
Interestingly, most of the recent winners of this contest have come from down near the foot of the weights, which is exactly where this runner sits given the claim of his rider, while Russell, who has been in decent form of late, has won this contest before.
Quite simply, I think we have another one here that is entitled to do better than the early odds suggest. Unfortunately, he’s not a 50/1 shot like yesterday’s runner, but there’s still more than enough juice in odds of 20/1 for me to get involved each-way. Those looking for value at a decent price should do the same.
Based on a £10 level-stakes example, the Nap of the Day (after 109 Naps) has a running P/L of -£39.00 (since switching to being published here (10/09/2024) rather than on the ‘Nap of the Day' page).
For those interested, here’s a monthly profit and loss breakdown (again based on a £10 level-stakes example):
September 2024 = +£34.00
October 2024 = +£6.00
November 2024 = +£15.00
December 2024 = +£50.00
2024 Overall = +105.00
January 2025 = -£120.00
February 2025 = +£20.00
March 2025 = -£79.00
GambleAware