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We got Day one off to a flyer with Old Park Star winning the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in strong staying fashion.
I feared the worst when the leader just kept finding and was going better than most. He was punted off the boards throughout the day and the day prior, and was much better than I thought he was.
Old Park Star isn't a two miler, and will likely go up in trip and be better in a few years' time over staying chase trips. When he came off the bridle, it wasn't a surprise to see him battle. There was a little scrummage late in the race, did it make a difference? of course it did, but I still think he would've won, as the others had more than enough time to bridge the gap.
Bossman Jack 7/1 (0.75pt EW, 4pl) – Cheltenham 1.20 (Turners Novices' Hurdle)
Once again, I am getting involved in the opening race of the day. I saw many respected people in the game saying if you think day one is hard, wait till you look at day two. Based on this first race, we could be in for a very difficult day, as this looks like a wide-open Turners.
There is some solid form from Grade 1 races in the UK and Ireland, and that's where the majority of people will sway towards. In what appears to be an open race, I wasn't scared to take a chance on Bossman Jack.
Based on how Dan Skelton has started the festival, I think you've got to respect this runner massively. Dan has only had one winner so far, but Mydaddypaddy ran well in the Supreme (much better than I thought he would). The Mighty Cell ran well in the old Fred Winter, and The New Lion ran a creditable race in the Champion Hurdle. Madara was impressive in the Plate, so it is clear as day that he has his stable in fine order.
Bossman Jack has it all to prove, as he has been kept to maiden and novice company, which is not an ideal route for a Cheltenham novice's Grade 1. Dan is a smart guy, and he could have easily sent this lad down the handicapping route off a mark of 134, but he's opting to go big for this Grade 1.
The last two races he won were egg and spoon races, and he was third on his hurdles debut. It turns out that the form of the debut run isn't bad at all. The runner-up was fourth in the Supreme, and the winner looks like a very smart horse and could've easily gone well in the Supreme if he had gone there. Bossman Jack gained +14 lengths from his jumping that day, and on his other two runs, he also put up impressive numbers in the jumping department.
This is a step up in trip for him, and a significant five furlongs extra. We don't know whether he'll want that, but his pedigree points towards him being better for it. He is related to Gidleigh Park, a very smart horse on his day, and the others in the pedigree from the dam's side gives me plenty of hope that this is the right decision to go up in trip.
It looks like some people in the game see it how I do, as he has come down from 18/1 to 7/1 in the last 24 hours.
Romeo Coolio 2/1 (1pt) – Cheltenham 2.00 (Brown Advisory Novices' Chase)
This selection isn't one I'm normally fond of, especially at the price, but I think he is the classiest horse in the race.
I've always thought that Romeo Coolio was a stayer, and we'd see the best of him when he went chasing over the longer trips.
He has done the majority of his running over two miles this season and has done it in workmanlike fashion. He defied Kargese last time out in a tight finish, and it didn't look like he was going to get up, but his stamina got him out of the fire. That form has been upgraded with the runner-up winning the Arkle on day one. She was fortunate to win, as the runner-up made a bad mistake at the last, but she was running a huge race either way.
When you look at the form of these horses, I think Romeo Coolio's is the best. His form over hurdles behind Kopek Des Bordes and The New Lion in last year's Turners is great form, and he was second in the Champion bumper the year before.
It's a bold move going up to 3m 1f from 2m 1f last time out, but if he stays, he wins.
GambleAware
No Drama This End 1.20 Cheltenham 11-4 skybet, Betfred and Boylesports, free bet offer applies.
Romeo Coolio 2.00 Cheltenham 9-4 skybet
Double on skybet brings it to 11.19-1
Double also gives you a free £10 bet
Good luck everyone let’s bash the bookies!
1.20 No Drama This End
I backed King Rasko for this after the DRF as I thought he’d have the most improvement to come out of that race but looking at the supreme result you have to assume that the Irish novices are just a poor bunch as England had 4 runners in the race and came 1234.
Looking at the English form NDTE comes out well on top and simply has to be the bet.
2.00 Wendigo Ew 4 places
Romeo Coolio is running in the right race but has yet to race this distance on the track. This should have been the plan all along as he still has to prove he stays so I couldn’t back him based on that.
Wendigo has no stamina worries. Will love the ground and rwas running a cracker in the AB here last year before being badly hampered 2 out but still managed to stay on for 5th. He also had a nice prep run lto.
Kocktail Divine should have gone to the Jack Richards as he’s so well h’capped so I was surprised when HDB chose to put him in here instead. I don’t think he’ll stay up the hill but if he does he has a big chance
2.40 Forty Coats / Kopec De Mee both ew
Minefield of a race but Kopec comes here having just had the one start this campaign when falling at the last when well beaten. Can’t help feeling he’s been kept quiet for this as was last year’s winner for the same stable. Been well found in the market but would be gutted if he won and I had nothing on.
Forty Coats was 4th in the Turners last year 14L behind the yellow clay but gets 17lbs off him today so must have every chance of turning the form around
3.20 Dessertmore House
The fav will be tough to beat but I think the 8lb rise he’s received from the English h’capper may have tipped the balance in Dessertmore’s favour.
4.00 Quillixios Ew
If Majborough produces what he did at the DRF it’s a no contest race but from a betting point of view Quillixios looks great value. He’s been kept fresh for this but he’s won 3 of his 4 starts fto over the last 4 years so I’d say they’ve done this purposely to give him the best chance possible
4.40 Addragoole Ew 5 places
On known form and revised marks he has the beating of In The Pocket, Western Diego and Release The Beast but you’re always wondering if In the Pocket is another JP plot job unfortunately we’re just not to know that.
5.20 Keep Him Company Ew
Just can’t see him out of the 3 from what I’ve seen so far
BOL and well done to any winners yesterday. It’s a tough festival but so far anyway very enjoyable
WTF was Cobden doing on No Drama. Awful ride
At least King Rasko won but I backed him at 8s and he wins at 11/1. That will teach me for jumping the gun
Same again on Romeo Coolio, favourites getting smashed today
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5.20…Keep Him Kompany @ 11/4
Money back Top 3 Bet365
Looks like Elliot has been aiming for this race going by his comments BUT a hell of a race to call so I’m taking the mondy back offer again
GL
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MAHONING VALLEY – Race 4…A Ok @ 11/2.
TAKE money back Top 3 offer Bet365 @ 7/2
Tough day at the office today but I learnt something at least.
Avoid Elliott runners