I think we were mightily unlucky not to see Bossman Jack go much closer in the opening race on day two.
It could be pocket talk, but I thought he was coming with a winning run before walking through the final hurdle. That knocked the stuffing out of him, and all momentum went. Prior to that, he had run the most, as was wide throughout. I honestly believe he would've gone close to winning.
On the other hand, one of my worst decisions at a Cheltenham Festival was backing Romeo Coolio. I got caught up thinking his form was strong, and it still might be, but it was always a tough ask at his first attempt over three miles. In all fairness, we didn't get to see if he stayed, as he left his jumping shoes back in Ireland. For a 3 x Grade 1 winner this season, he jumped like a complete rookie.
Place De La Nation 22/1 (0.5pt EW, 4pl) – Cheltenham 1.20 (Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle)
On paper, you'd like to think that Bambino Fever has the race all sewn up, and all she has to do is jump safely, and she'll win. That is definitely the most obvious case, and she could arguably be at a backable price, around EVS. She was beaten on her hurdling debut, but turns out the winner could be fairly useful, and she was also conceding race fitness.
After giving every horse a fair chance and studying the form equally, I found myself leaning towards Place De La Nation. She was also behind Oldschool Outlaw (in a different race), the same horse that beat Bambino Fever. That might make you question, why do you think she can reverse the form? Cheltenham is the answer.
On just her second run for Willie Mullins, Place De La Nation found herself in the Triumph Hurdle at odds of 100/1, under Danny Gilligan. She ended up finishing in fifth spot, putting in a much better performance than was expected. It turns out the level of horses in that race was actually quite good.
Poniros has been run well in Grade 1's this year, including a solid 3rd in February and 6th in the Champion Hurdle, both runs producing RPRs of 155. The runner-up (Lulamba) was third on day one's Arkle, and looks like he could be a very smart horse over fences when upped in trip. Too Bossy For Us (7th) was 6th in the Supreme on Tuesday. Mondo Man (9th) won the Imperial Cup last weekend.
I really like the angle of her being a second-season novice, and she has already run well in a Grade 1 at this track before. I think she is being massively overlooked and should be hitting the frame at the very least.
Ma Shantou 6/1 (1pt) – Cheltenham 3.20 (Stayers' Hurdle)
I put up Ma Shantou on the antepost article about a month ago, and he was 8/1 that day. Currently, he is 6/1, so if he stays this or goes off shorter, then we've found the value.
Despite already having him antepost, I'm going back in on him again. I've just got a feeling that we've not seen the best of this horse yet, and I think he can win Emma Lavelle another Stayers' Hurdle after Paisley Park delivered the goods a few years ago.
I don't think this horse hits the flat spots like Paisley did, but I think connections hold him in the same regard. He has taken a similar route to Paisley, shown by winning the Cleeve Hurdle. He didn't just win the Cleeve Hurdle, he battered the field that day by seven lengths. Stats aren't everything, but the last three horses to have won the Cleeve Hurdle by seven lengths or more have gone on to win this.
There are some big names in this race, and it looks like a cracking renewal. I don't think it's as strong as it looks. There are a lot of unknown stayers in this, and the ones who aren't unknown at the trip or Grade, are getting old and are prone to a younger horse.
GambleAware