For this year's Cheltenham Festival, we have opted for a couple of different articles from those you will have seen.
This year, we are putting a selection up for each handicap race of the festival. I will be keeping these down to one selection per race, and if I like another, they will likely be in the Lucky 15 bet.
Cheltenham 2026 McCoy Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle | 2.40 pm – Glen To Glen 9/1 (0.5pt EW, 6pl)
Studying the form for this race is always very difficult, as for the most part, they don't race against each other. Trying to decipher which form line is best is a hard task, so I wanted to focus on the stats and trends for this race to help find a selection.
Joseph O'Brien's Glen To Glen came out on top after being in the list for a lot of recent trends. The trainer has done well in this race, shown by winning it the last two years, as well as Band Of Outlaws winning it in 20219.
Some of the key trends that Glen To Glen fell into were:
- No winner had previously raced at Cheltenham
- Seven of the last nine were from the top 12 on the racecard (10th/22)
- None of the last 13 had won more than two hurdle races (won 1)
- Ex-flat horse
Obviously, backing a horse blind on stats and trends doesn't feel right. But, knowing how good Joseph has been in this race, it looks likely that this has been the long-term plan since acquiring him. He hasn't raced since the start of December, but with just three runs needed to get a handicap mark, they've felt no pressure to run him again.
He was a decent flat horse when trained by Jim Bolger, being rated in the 80s off a handful of runs. The quicker ground should be fine for him, as he was decent on a much quicker surface on the flat.
Cheltenham 2026 Ultima Handicap Chase | 3.20 pm – Knight Of Allen 16/1 (0.5pt EW, 6pl)
When backing a horse that is racing at the bottom of the weights and is out of the handicap, you're always prone to the horse being outclassed. There is every possibility that it will be the place for Knight Of Allen, but I think he has proven himself against solid horses in the past.
The trip is an unknown, but he stays 2m 7f and was plugging away at the finish on heavy ground at Newbury, behind a horse I deem to be well-handicapped and a different best on heavy ground.
Prior to that run at Newbury, he was fourth over the extended 2m 4f at Cheltenham. He was carrying a penalty and giving weight away to horses a lot higher rated than him, which made it an impossible task. In all fairness, he ran well and only struggled to go the pace at the trip on quick ground.
I think this ground will be ideal for him, and I think the extra yardage can be a plus. He carries 10st 2lbs around, and if his jumping can remain accurate, which it usually is, I think he has a much better chance than what the odds suggest.
Cheltenham 2026 Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase | 4.40 pm – McLaurey 9/2 (1pt)
Obviously, every handicap at the Cheltenham Festival is a tough race to pick the winner from, but I don't think this is going to be one of the better handicaps in terms of quality turning up.
The main problem with that statement is that many will have had races like this in their mind for months, and their main aim is to get their horse in the best shape and on the best handicap mark possible. If we see money arrive on an out-of-form horse, it's not going to be a surprise.
I often get lured into backing Emmet Mullins horses, as he is one of the best at doing what I've just mentioned. Sometimes backing his horses works, and the horse is miles ahead of the handicapper, and other times you get your fingers burnt. I've been on the receiving end of both. However, as I firmly believe this race isn't to get a fantastic standard, I am happy to take a chance on McLaurey, who comes to this race with the form of 4,3,7 and 4.
It's interesting that Mark Walsh has picked him over the top weight, Down Memory Lane. The Gordon Elliott horse has a much better level of form and is definitely the safer option, but McLaurey is unexposed as a chaser, especially at this distance. There is definitely a high level of ability with this horse. He has shown that by winning a 74K prize over hurdles last February in a Listed handicap, winning as the favourite that day. We won't get cracking odds on him, due to the trainer and owner combination, but I think there's a strong chance he is ahead of the handicapper.
Cheltenham 2026 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Handicap Chase | 5.20 pm – Iceberg Theory 8/1 (0.5pt EW, 5pl)
This race is very different to what it used to be. The amateur riders used to be the only jockeys available in this race, and it didn't used to be a handicap. Therefore, we had some very good horses turning up, but it makes it a better betting race, as you can find some value.
Paul Nolan's horse was the one that I wanted to get involved in. Paul is a trainer who goes under the radar for these types of races, as he's not the usual Irish powerhouse trainer who sends horses across. He is a very good trainer, and can pop up in races like this, as we saw in the Kim Muir last year.
His runner is 2/3 over fences and is evidently a better jumper of a fence than a hurdle. His sole defeat over fences came to an odds-on favourite, and he was running on strongly over 3m 2f. Since then, he has won both of his races over much shorter trips, which is good, as I think he needs the extra yardage he faces today.
The form of his wins has been franked, and the quick-ish ground will be to his favour, with his best runs coming on good and good, good to yielding, and yielding ground.
GambleAware