Finding winners at the Cheltenham Festival 2025 isn’t just about luck—historical trends can reveal valuable betting insights. From the Champion Hurdle to the Gold Cup, certain patterns emerge year after year, helping punters make informed choices.
In this guide, we break down key statistics for major races, including age trends, ratings, and past performances, giving you an edge over the bookies.
Our beginner's guide to Cheltenham betting
Whether you're looking for trends in the Champion Chase, Stayers' Hurdle, or a big handicap like the Ultima, these stats will help you refine your selections for the four-day racing spectacle.
Unfortunately, we can't cover every single race at the Cheltenham Festival 2025, so we've picked out a couple of big handicaps and the Champion races for you to delve into.
Champion Hurdle
- Twenty-nine of the last 35 winners were aged six or seven years old (12 of the last 17)
- The horse that went off as favourite has had a 75% strike rate in the last 12 years. This is hardly a surprise, given that the field sizes are often very small and we've had some monsters win the race, like Honeysuckle, Constitution Hill, and State Man.
- All but one of the previous 12 winners won last time out (Jezki, 2014), and 35 of the last 41 won last time out, which supports this statistic even further.
- Though ratings mean very little as it's not a handicap, 10/12 winners were 161 or higher.
- Eleven of the last 12 winners were already winners at Cheltenham, so course form is key!
- Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race nine times, including four of the last eight years.
Though it looks highly unlikely that a big shock will happen in the Champion Hurdle this year as Constitution Hill is in the G.O.A.T bracket for hurdlers, Espoir D'allen did manage to win at 16/1 in 2019, so stranger things have happened.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
- According to trends, you can be slightly older and win the Champion Chase, with 30 of the last 38 winners aged between seven and nine.
- Favourites haven't had the best of times in this race, with them operating at a 42% strike rate, but they did hit the frame of being in the top 3 92% of the time (last 12 runnings)
- You can get away with not winning on your previous start with 6/12 winners not being successful on their previous start.
- Ten of the last 12 winners have been rated >162.
- Past champions do well – 14 horses have won the CC more than once
Stayer's Hurdle
- Fourteen of the last 20 won last time out.
- Three of the last seven winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season.
- Nineteen winners since 2000 returned in single figures.
- Avoid horses that didn’t finish either first or second last time out.
- A five-year-old is yet to win the race.
- Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice.
- Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since 1986 (one from 70) – 2023 year’s winner Sire Du Berlais.
Gold Cup
- Twenty of the last 25 winners ran in the Savills Chase (Leopardstown) or King George (Kempton) that season.
- Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won the last six between them. Mullins and jockey Paul Townend won four of the last six runnings.
- All of the last 25 winners were aged nine or younger.
- No winner older than 10 years old since 1969 (0 from 77).
- Horses rated 166 or less are only six of the last 52 runners.
Ultima Handicap Chase
- Eight of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 10lbs & 11st 8lbs.
- Ten of the last 12 winners were aged seven to nine.
- Ten of the last 12 winners had a rating of 140 or higher.
- Every winner of the last 12 renewals had at least one previous run at Cheltenham.
- The Ultima has been a graveyard for the favourites, with just two being winners from the last 12.
County Handicap Hurdle
- Trainer Dan Skelton has trained four of the last nine winners.
- Running in Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdle has been very profitable, with 10 winners having run in that race since 2002.
- Winning last time out ISN'T a must. – 13 of the last 18 winners did not win last time out.
- Nine of the last 17 winners returned 20/1 or bigger.
- Nine of the last 12 winners carried 11st 1lb or less.
- Since 1960 only five winners carried more than 11st 2lb.
- Eleven of the last 12 winners were rated between 134 and 141
- Nicky Henderson is yet to win the County Hurdle since the turn of the century (0-36)
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