It’s business time at the US Open today, with an all-American semi-final taking place in New York as Taylor Fritz takes on Frances Tiafoe. We’ve broken down their head-to-head and form to come up with a Fritz vs Frances prediction and betting tip for you ahead of day 12.
These two have had some really fascinating matchups in the past, and with the stakes being so high, it should be a good one this Friday.
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Player form: Both peaking at the right time
Taylor Fritz didn’t come into the US Open in good form. In fact, he had only won one hard court match since March, which was strange for him. He’s generally a good player on that surface, but he clearly elected to save himself for the US Open, where he’s been tremendous since the start.
Frances Tiafoe came into the US Open red-hot after a superb week in Cincinnati, and he’s kept the level high since then. It’s great to see because an in-form Tiafoe is a show on two legs.
How the bookies view it: Fritz highly favoured
According to bookies, Taylor Fritz is the heavy favourite, as he’s priced 2/5 to win the match. Tiafoe is an underdog, with a 2/1 price tag, but that makes him an interesting pick, especially as we’re in New York.
Recent head-to-head: Fritz leads 6-1
The head-to-head record paints a pretty clear picture of Fritz being the vastly better player. While there is an argument for that, it’s not that simple.
Fritz has outplayed Tiafoe in their matchups so far, but this is a different Tiafoe. We haven’t seen him this focused in a very long time.
Even though his most recent win over Fritz happened in 2016, which feels like an eon ago, he’s still a player who can produce magic on any given day.
Anything else catch the eye?
Besides the obvious head-to-head record, the matchup will largely come down to quickness. This is because Tiafoe has been flying all over the court and just returning balls very well.
As aggressive as Fritz is, he tends to overhit quite often. A very energetic Tiafoe is likely to frustrate him a lot. That being said, the serve for Tiafoe is make or break.
If he doesn’t serve well, he’s in trouble, but we think on Ashe he’ll show up. If there is one court and one place where he would have a dream run, it’s New York, and he’s certainly been having it so far.
Fritz vs Tiafoe betting tips & predictions
With everything that we noted above, there is no real value in backing anything but a Tiafoe upset. You can go for the money line or you can go for an exact set score, but either way, he’s the right side to back. We give him the slight edge to win, but even as a slight underdog, he’s still returning great value at 2/1.
- Tiafoe to win @ 2/1
- Tiafoe to win 3-1 @ 6/1
The match will be played on Friday in New York, and whoever wins will advance to their first Grand Slam final.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
In December 2020 we sadly 
