EFL expert, The Betting Desk, returns with his weekly betting previews and best bets in England’s Football League.
Sunderland vs Reading
I am going to take the hosts to score at least two goals here at a decent price of 11/10 with Betfred. The hosts under Mowbray have been slowly climbing the table and now sit just two points outside the top six, a win here against Reading will boost their play-off chances.
The hosts gave a good account of themselves midweek against Premier League side Fulham despite losing 3-2. They won the shot count 19 v 17, the shot on target count 6 v 5 and had more shots in the box, if they can maintain this level of performance against Reading then they will give them some tricky moments in the game.
Sunderland are in the middle of a striker shortage with Ellis Simms being recalled and key striker Ross Steward now out of the season, but with Joe Gelhardt, Jack Clarke, Amad Diallo and Patrick Roberts they should have enough quality in the final third.
Over the last four championship games the hosts have generated an average of 1.56 non-penalty xG per game and I have them top for xPTS over the same period. No side has had more shots in the box in their most recent four games and even over eight games, I have them 5th.
Reading are struggling with their last 18 games returning W4-D5-L9 conceding 1.61 goals in the process. On the road this season they have collected just 10 points from 15 games, conceding in 12 of their 15 matches with an average goal against of 1.87.
Over the last four games I have them down in 20th for xPTS and no side has conceded more xGA over this period with 1.55 per game. They have conceded two or more goals in their last three games with a total of 12 match goals in their last 3 games.
Reading are all but safe from relegation and are very unlikely to mount a serious promotion push, so Sunderland should have the motivation to win the match and will be looking to build on their decent display in midweek.
- Sunderland to score 1.5 goals at 11/10 with Betfred.
Charlton vs Fleetwood
A game that looks likely to have a few goals.
The hosts have seen an average of 3.07 goals at the Valley this season finding the net a total of 27 times in 15 games, an average of 1.80 goals score per home fixture. Across the season they have now scored in 23 of 28 games and at home the Addicks have scored in 13 of their 15 fixtures
The hosts have conceded in 23 of 28 games meaning that both teams to score has landed in 67% of their games this season and at the Valley its 66% of games.
Defensively they have struggled at home. Only two sides have conceded more shots and five sides more shots on target, whilst sitting 17th for shots in the box conceded. Going forward, just five sides have scored more goals and had more shots on target, which suggest that goals could be on the cards.
Fleetwood have scored in 13 of 14 away games with the only blank coming at Sheffield Wednesday who have one of the best home division records in the division, the same cannot be said about Charlton.
Their away games average 2.43 goals with both sides scoring landing in 78% of their away fixtures. Fleetwood have found the net at Ipswich, Barnsley, Pompey and Posh so won’t be conceded about visiting the Valley. Their underlying metrics don’t suggest goals with midtable attacking and defensive statistics, but they keep finding the net and conceding.
Given the number of times this bet has landed for both sides. Combining Charlton’s home games with the away games of Fleetwood this term, both teams to score has landed in 72%. Roughly, this would suggest odds of around 2/5 but we can back this at 3/4 with Unibet and I am happy to take this on.
- Both teams to score at 3/4 with Unibet
Morecambe vs Forest Green
A bottom-of-the-table clash in League One and I am again happy to back goals. We can back over 2.25 Goal Line at 5/6 with Bet365 which means that we are splitting our stake across over 2 and 2.5 goals. If there are just two goals, we will get 50% of our stake back; therefore, we need three goals for the bet to win and the only way we lose all of our stake is if there are only 1 or fewer goals.
Morecambe have had an upturn in results recently, especially at home winning the last four games but also now undefeated in eight games since they lost 1-0 to Ipswich back in October and since that defeat, they have scored in eight consecutive home games and conceded in five of them. In fact, the hosts have only kept four home clean sheets all season and one of those was back in August.
Their last five games have seen a total of 23 goals with three games seeing five or more goals and four of this five-game period having at least four or more goals. Given this I am a little surprised to see the odds for this game having goals. Over 2.5 goals is odds against which is an interesting price.
Over the last four games, Morecambe have the highest xGA with 2.06 per game, giving hope that Rovers can get on the scoresheet here.
Forest Green Rovers are in awful form. Their last 20 games have seen results of W3-D4-L13 conceding an average of 1.75 goals per game, keeping just two clean sheers over this 20-game period, both of which were at home. Away its W1-D6-L8 conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game. Their one away win was on the opening day of the season against Bristol Rovers.
Recent underlying performances have been a little encouraging. They have posted a xG of 1.39 and xGA of .159 which would suggest that we might see goals at both ends. Both Rovers and Morecambe sit in the bottom five for most shots in the box conceded over the last four and eight games.
We both defensives so poor and the visitors desperate for three points here we may see an open game. I don’t think Rovers can go there and expect to shut the hosts out so attack might be the best course of action here.
- Over 2.25 goals at 5/6 with Bet365
