As the League One and League Two promotion and relegation battles reach a boiling point, there is no shortage of drama heading into the weekend. With just a handful of games remaining, every point counts — and that makes for some prime betting opportunities.
Walsall are desperately trying to cling onto their automatic promotion spot but face a tricky trip to mid-table Barrow. Charlton head to Cambridge knowing that a playoff place — and possibly even home advantage in the semi-finals — is within reach. Meanwhile, Wrexham continue their charge toward back-to-back promotions as they travel to Wigan, a side who may already have one eye on easier fixtures ahead.
Here’s a breakdown of the best angles from Barrow vs Walsall, Cambridge United vs Charlton Athletic, and Wigan Athletic vs Wrexham — with value bets in each to keep your weekend profitable.
Barrow vs Walsall
It has gone badly wrong for Walsall. After 30 games, they looked nailed on for automatic promotion with a record of W18-D6-L6, sitting 15 points clear of second-placed AFC Wimbledon. But in the 11 games since, they have managed just W2-D6-L3, scoring and conceding 16 goals in that time. They now sit third on 72 points, just two points ahead of Doncaster Rovers in fourth, who occupy the first play-off place.
They are in serious danger of slipping out of the automatic promotion spots.
Over the last 12 matches, Walsall rank seventh for xPTS, and results continue to suffer. They are winless in their last six, have kept just one clean sheet, and have conceded an average of 1.67 goals per game. They have only won twice in their last 16, conceding an average of 1.63 goals during that period and managing just two clean sheets—one of which came against relegation-threatened Morecambe.
In their last 14 League Two games both teams have scored in 11 of those matches. A major factor in their decline has been the loss of Nathan Lowe, who scored 15 goals before returning to Stoke City in January. His pressing, energy, and goal threat have been sorely missed.
This weekend, Walsall travel to Barrow, who sit 15th with little to play for—safe from relegation and realistically out of the playoff race. At home, Barrow have a record of W9-D5-L6, scoring 29 and failing to score in just four of their 20 home matches. Three of those blanks came against teams in the bottom five.
Barrow have scored in seven of their last eight League Two fixtures and rank third for xPTS over that period. Their non-penalty xG over the last eight matches is 1.47, with only six teams creating more big chances.
Walsall, desperate for a result, have posted a non-penalty xG of 1.17 over their last eight. That should be enough to get on the scoresheet, but given their defensive frailties and lack of clean sheets, this match looks nicely set up for both teams to score—and at a very appealing price.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 2.0 with Coral
Cambridge Utd vs Charlton Athletic
Charlton have been in excellent form recently. Over the last 20 matches, only Birmingham have picked up more points than the Addicks. In that span, Charlton have posted a strong record of W13-D4-L3, scoring 32 goals (second only to Birmingham) and conceding just 18 — the fourth-best defensive record over that period. They have kept nine clean sheets and found the net in 18 of those games, with one of the blanks coming in a narrow 1-0 away defeat at Birmingham.
Their away form has not been quite as convincing, with a record of W8-D4-L8. That said, they have still kept seven clean sheets on the road but have also failed to score in seven away games. Against the bottom-eight sides home and away, Charlton have been dominant, with a record of W10-D1-L2. On the road specifically, they have kept clean sheets in five of their seven victories.
Charlton rank second for xPTS and second for non-penalty xG ratio over the last eight matches. They can not afford a slip-up here, with Reading just five points behind them and Bolton seven points back in seventh. There is also an opportunity: Stockport are only a point ahead, meaning Charlton could still grab home advantage in the playoffs — crucially playing the second leg of the semi-final at The Valley.
However, it’s not guaranteed they will finish in the top six. They still have to face both Wycombe and Wrexham in their final five matches — two sides fighting for automatic promotion.
This weekend, they travel to face Cambridge United, who are fighting to avoid relegation. Cambridge are seven points adrift of 20th-placed Bristol Rovers and have endured a tough campaign with a record of W8-D11-L22, conceding 65 goals. At home, they have only won five times, failed to score in eight matches, and kept just three clean sheets — two of which came against teams sitting 18th or lower.
Against sides ranked 16th and above, Cambridge’s record this season is W2-D9-L17. They have won just once in their last eight matches — a victory over bottom-of-the-table Shrewsbury. In fact, four of their last five wins have come against teams currently sitting 24th, 22nd, and 17th — with the exception being a surprise 1-0 win over Stockport in Neil Harris’s first game in charge following the departure of Mark Bonner.
Since Harris took over, Cambridge have recorded W3-D3-L4, scoring just 10 goals in those 10 games, with an average of 1.9 total goals per match. After winning his first two games against Stockport and Crawley, Harris has overseen just one win in the last eight.
They did manage a credible 2-2 draw with Wrexham at home and were good value for it, but across the last eight matches, they rank 21st for xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio. Only seven clubs have created fewer big chances in that time.
This has the feel of a low-scoring affair. Cambridge’s last eight games have averaged 1.8 total xG, while Charlton’s have averaged 1.79. Charlton should have enough quality to get a result, especially considering Cambridge’s defensive struggles.
Using a Bet365 Bet Builder, a nice angle is: Charlton double chance (win or draw), Charlton to score at least once, and under 4 match goals.
- Best Bet: Charlton double chance (win or draw), Charlton over 0 goals, and under 4 match goals at 1.90 with Bet365
Wigan Athletic vs Wrexham
Over the last 13 League One matches, only Birmingham have collected more points than Wrexham. The Welsh side have taken 29 points in that stretch, with a record of W9-D2-L2. They have conceded just eight goals across their last 12 games and currently sit third for xPTS and fifth for non-penalty xG ratio in that period.
On the road, Wrexham's record stands at W9-D5-L6. They have kept nine clean sheets from their 20 away matches. Most of their success has come against teams in the bottom half — they have won just three away games against sides in the top half of the table, but against teams ranked 15th and below, they hold a strong record of W6-D2-L1.
Wrexham have lost just two of their last 13 matches — one at home to Leyton Orient and the other away at Reading. In their last eight away games, they have suffered only one defeat, kept four clean sheets, scored in seven, and netted two or more goals in five of those fixtures.
They currently sit second in the table, three points ahead of Wycombe, with five games to go. Tough fixtures against Charlton and Lincoln still await, making this weekend’s match a key opportunity to secure all three points.
Wrexham travel to face Wigan, who are 18th — five points clear of the drop zone and level on games with Burton, who sit fourth-bottom. Wigan do have a game in hand on those around them, but may already be turning their focus to more winnable fixtures, including their next match away at bottom club Shrewsbury, followed by back-to-back home games against Rotherham and Blackpool, and then a trip to Northampton on the final day.
Wigan have been poor over the last eight matches, ranking 23rd for both xPTSs and non-penalty xG ratio. Only Shrewsbury have produced a lower non-penalty xG (0.6), and Wigan have created just four big chances in that period. Only three teams have conceded more big chances over the same stretch.
They have won just twice in their last 14 matches — both at home against struggling Cambridge and Huddersfield. Across those 14 games, they have scored only nine goals, with two coming in the 2-1 win over Huddersfield. They have failed to score in six of those matches and conceded in 10.
At home this season, Wigan have a record of W6-D5-L9, scoring just 18 goals — an average of 0.9 per game. They have failed to score in eight of their 20 home fixtures. Against top-half sides, their record is W3-D6-L12 overall. At home specifically, they have won just once against teams 15th or above, and against sides currently in the top nine, they have a dismal W1-D0-L7.
With Wigan almost safe and little to play for, and Wrexham pushing for automatic promotion into the Championship, the motivation factor clearly lies with the visitors. Wrexham to win looks like good value, but a safer angle is backing them on the -0.25 Asian Handicap, which covers half the stake in case of a draw and is available at an appealing price.
Best Bet: Wrexham -0.25AH at 1.80 with Bet365
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