The final weekend of the EFL season promises high drama, and three key fixtures stand out for bettors looking to capitalise on teams with everything to play for.
Birmingham travel to Cambridge aiming to cap off a historic season with 111 points, while Bristol City host Preston knowing only a win will secure their place in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Reading must beat Barnsley and hope for a slip-up elsewhere to sneak into the top six. With contrasting motivations, strong form trends, and clear statistical edges, these matchups present some compelling betting opportunities as the campaign comes to a close.
Bristol City vs Preston North End
Bristol City need a win to secure a playoff spot, currently sitting fifth on 67 points with Millwall (66) and Blackburn (65) just behind. Victory could also see them match Sheffield United and Burnley for total home points this season. Their form at Ashton Gate has been strong, with a home record of W13-D6-L3, seven clean sheets, and only four games without scoring. Their only home defeats came against Burnley, Sheffield United, and Swansea—despite dominating the latter with 19 shots to nine, seven on target to two, and 16 to eight for shots in the box. With just four away wins all season, home form is crucial. Against bottom-half sides at home, they are unbeaten (W8-D4-L0), keeping six clean sheets. Only five teams have scored 2+ goals at home more often. Over the last 15 matches, only Leeds have picked up more points. In advanced metrics, City rank eighth for xPTS over the last eight games, seventh for non-penalty xG ratio (1.25), and sixth for home xPTS.
Preston have struggled away from home, recording just three wins (W3-D7-L12), all against bottom-half sides. Against top-half opponents on the road, they have gone W0-D4-L7. They have failed to score in six away games and kept five clean sheets. Only two sides have blanked more often overall, and just five have conceded 2+ goals on more occasions. Their last 14 games have returned just one win (W1-D6-L7), averaging only 0.86 goals per match. Over the last 10 games, only three teams have collected fewer points. Relegation is still possible but unlikely—it would require a defeat here, a Hull draw or win, and a better result from Luton. A trip to Ashton Gate is far from ideal. They sit 20th for xPTS over the last eight games, have averaged just 0.63 xG from open play in that span, and are 21st for big chance ratio—only four sides have conceded more big chances in that period.
- Best Bet: Bristol City win at 1.91 with William Hill
Reading vs Barnsley
Reading come into the final game in strong form, unbeaten in 16 of their last 18 matches (W9-D7-L2), with both losses coming away at Blackpool and Lincoln. At home, they have been excellent – W14-D4-L4 – scoring an average of 1.59 goals per game and finding the net 2+ times in 11 of 22 matches. They sit seventh, level on points with Leyton Orient, and must win while hoping Orient lose at Huddersfield to have any chance of making the playoffs. Reading have the fifth best home record in the league with 46 points, have failed to score in just five home games, and kept nine clean sheets. Against bottom-half sides at home, they are unbeaten (W9-D3-L0), scoring 2+ in eight of those nine wins. Only four teams have failed to score fewer times this season, and just five have scored more home goals. They have also been one of the league’s most creative sides recently—only two teams have produced more big chances over the last eight games.
Barnsley, 12th and with nothing left to play for, have been hit-and-miss on the road with a W10-D2-L10 record and just three clean sheets. They have failed to score in only four away matches but have struggled badly against top sides. On the road against the top seven, they have lost all six games, conceding 2+ goals in four of them and 16 in total—an average of 2.66 per match. Overall against the top six, their record is W1-D3-L8. Only eight teams have conceded more away goals, and only one has kept fewer away clean sheets. Their recent underlying numbers are poor, too, conceding 1.46 non-penalty xGA per game over their last 8 matches and ranking 18th for expected points over the last 12.
- Best Bet: Reading win and over 1.5 goals at 1.91 with BetVictor
Cambridge Utd vs Birmingham City
Birmingham can finish the season with a record-breaking 111 points. They currently sit on 108, already the highest total ever recorded by an EFL side, and are well-positioned to cap off a remarkable campaign. They also boast the best away record in the division, with a win here taking them to 50 points on the road. Their away form reads W14-D5-L3, conceding just 19 goals, failing to score only twice—both against top-eight opponents. Only four teams have kept more clean sheets away, and no side has scored more goals on the road. Over their last 20 League One games, they have gone unbeaten with 16 wins and three draws. They rank first for xPTS over the last 12 games, with just 0.44 xGA from open play per match and only three big chances conceded in that stretch.
Cambridge, by contrast, have lost three of their last four and look ready for the season to end and a rebuild to begin. Their home record is poor: W5-D6-L11, with just three clean sheets and nine matches without scoring. Against top-half teams, their record is W2-D9-L12 with only one clean sheet, collecting just 15 points. No team has kept fewer home clean sheets, only two have failed to score more often, and only Shrewsbury have earned fewer home points. They have won just five of their last 20 League One games, with those wins coming against Stockport (3rd), Mansfield (18th), Shrewsbury (24th), Burton (20th), and Wigan (16th). Advanced metrics show them 22nd for xPTS and 20th for non-penalty xGA ratio over the last 12 matches.
- Best Bet: Birmingham win and over 1.5 goals at 1.75 with Ladbrokes
Further Reading
- Chelsea vs Liverpool Prediction and Betting Tips
- Brentford vs Manchester United Prediction and Betting Tips
- West Ham United vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction and Betting Tips
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United Prediction and Betting Tips
- Arsenal vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction and Betting Tips
GambleAware