In this week's EFL betting tips, we feature a few teams with their eyes on direct Premier League promotion.
Starting at the Stadium of Light, Oxford will be looking to upset Sunderland, while Burnley will continue their push for a place in the top flight when they host QPR.
Elsewhere, Reading and Bristol Rovers square off in our feature match in League One.
Contents
Sunderland vs Oxford
Sunderland have every reason to believe they will defeat Oxford United on Saturday, given their formidable home form and Oxford’s struggles on the road. At the Stadium of Light, Sunderland remain unbeaten with a record of W4-D1-L0, including four clean sheets.
They’ve scored two or more goals in three of their five home games, all but one of which have been against teams from the top half of the table. Defensively, Sunderland are solid, with only Sheffield United boasting a better xGA at home, conceding on average just 0.5. They are also one of the best sides in the division at limiting shots on target.
In contrast, Oxford’s away form is concerning. They have yet to win on the road this season (W0-D2-L3), and have failed to keep a clean sheet, conceding two or more goals in four of those games. Their recent 1-1 draw with Derby highlighted their defensive vulnerabilities, as they lost the xG battle 1.15 to 0.46 and allowed 17 shots.
This inability to control games away from home will likely be exploited by a Sunderland side that has demonstrated consistent dominance at the Stadium of Light.
With superior form, defensive stability, and a proven track record at home, Sunderland are well-positioned to secure another victory over Oxford. Backing the hosts to win the game produces odds of just 1.51, but we can add under five goals to boost this. Sunderland games have averaged 2.73 goals, whilst Oxford games are seeing just 2.55.
- Best Bet: Sunderland win and under 4.5 goals at 1.91 with Skybet
Burnley vs QPR
Burnley are strong favourites to beat QPR on Saturday, given the clear gulf in form and league position. Currently second in the table, Burnley have been solid defensively, conceding just five goals all season and only two at home. Their record of W6-D4-L1, with their sole defeat to top-of-the-table Sunderland, highlights their consistency.
Under manager Scott Parker, the Clarets have become more robust at the back, moving away from the open, attacking style of former boss Vincent Kompany. This has led to Burnley conceding fewer shots and shots on target than most teams in the division, while also boasting the best xG per shot and best xGA per set piece.
In contrast, QPR are struggling at the wrong end of the table, sitting 23rd with just one win in 11 matches. They have failed to win any of their last seven games and have not kept a clean sheet all season. With a record of W1-D5-L5, the Hoops have also failed to score in their last two away games. Their defence has been leaky, conceding 19 goals, while their attack has struggled, scoring just 11.
Given Burnley’s defensive solidity and QPR’s poor form, Burnley are well-positioned to claim a low-scoring victory.
- Best Bet: Burnley to win and under 4.5 goals at 1.91 with Betway
Reading vs Bristol Rovers
Reading have a strong chance of defeating Bristol Rovers this weekend, particularly due to their impressive home form and Rovers' struggles on the road. Reading sit eighth in the league for home xPTS, with a home record this season of W5-D0-L1 and an aggregate score of 13-4.
Their dominance at the Select Car Leasing Stadium is clear, having won 13 of their last 20 home games, scoring 38 goals in that period and failing to score just once. Reading’s attack has been potent, with only four sides in the league registering more shots on target at home.
The Gas, meanwhile, have been inconsistent on the road, with a W1-D1-L4 record. Their only away win came against Burton, who sit at the bottom of the table and have yet to win a game.
Rovers have conceded two or more goals in four of their six away matches, and their record against teams in the top half this season is poor—W0-D0-L4. They are also ranked 22nd on xPTS and 24th on non-penalty xG ratio, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities.
With Reading in strong form, having won five of their last six league games and relying on their home strength, they are well-positioned to take advantage of Bristol Rovers’ defensive frailties and claim another victory.
- Best Bet: Reading to win at 1.8 with William Hill
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In December 2020 we sadly 
