This weekend's football action offers plenty of intrigue, with key fixtures in the Championship providing both excitement and value for bettors.
Sheffield United take on Sunderland in a top-of-the-table clash on Friday night, as two of the league’s best defensive sides battle for crucial points.
Watford, unbeaten at home, host a struggling QPR side desperate for consistency, while Millwall travel to Oxford in a matchup that could shape playoff ambitions. With teams chasing promotion and others fighting to find form, these games present opportunities for well-researched bets in tightly contested matchups.
Sheffield Utd vs Sunderland
Friday night’s Championship clash sees Sheffield United host Sunderland in a top-of-the-table showdown. The Blades have been in outstanding form, with a record of W11-D4-L2, conceding just nine goals across 17 games—an average of 0.53 goals per match. At home, they have been even better, conceding just two goals all season, both in their opening game against QPR. Since then, they have won seven straight home matches without conceding a goal.
Sheffield United’s defensive stats are among the best in the league. They have allowed just 0.37 xGA per game at home and rank second for shots on target conceded, behind only Burnley. They are also third for the fewest shots in the box conceded at home. Overall, they have kept 11 clean sheets from 17 matches.
Sunderland have also impressed, with a record of W9-D6-L2, conceding just 12 goals. Their last five matches have all been draws, including three clean sheets. On the road, Sunderland have kept four clean sheets from nine matches, conceding just eight goals at an average of 0.89 per match. Overall, they have kept 10 clean sheets in their 17 games and boast an xGA of 1.08, with only four sides allowing fewer shots on target.
This matchup promises to be tight, with both sides prioritising defence. With a combined 21 clean sheets in 34 matches, this is not a game that suggests a high goal tally. While under 2.5 goals is short at 1.63, the “both teams to score: no” market offers better value.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score NO at 1.8 with Skybet
Watford vs QPR
Watford should prove too strong at home for Queens Park Rangers. The Hornets have a solid record of W9-D2-L6 this season, and they remain unbeaten at home with W7-D1-L0. At Vicarage Road, they conceded just four goals in four games, two of which were scored by Middlesbrough and Sunderland.
Watford have kept four clean sheets in their eight home matches. While they rank 11th in expected points, they sit fifth in the league standings, showing their ability to outperform their underlying metrics.
Under manager Tom Cleverley, Watford have gone eight games unbeaten (W8 D4 L0) across the end of last season and the start of this one, conceding only six goals in that span. In contrast, QPR have struggled, with just W2—D8-L7, scoring only 15 goals this season. Their two wins came against struggling Luton and Cardiff, both of whom sit near the bottom of the table.
Away from home, QPR’s record is slightly better, with W2-D3-L3, but they have managed just seven goals on the road. Before their midweek 2-0 victory over Cardiff, they had failed to score in four consecutive away games.
Watford, despite overachieving their xPTS, have proven their strength at home, beating top eight sides Sunderland, Middlesbrough, and Blackburn. In contrast, QPR’s victories have come against teams ranked 16th or lower. This gulf in form and quality makes Watford clear favourites to take all three points.
- Best Bet: Watford to win at 1.95 with Quinn Bet
Oxford vs Millwall
Millwall have quietly had a strong season, currently sitting ninth in the league and within reach of the playoffs. Their record of W6-D6-L4 includes back-to-back defeats in their first two matches, but since then, they have lost just twice in their next 14 games. They are now unbeaten in eight, a run that includes draws against Sunderland and West Brom and impressive wins over Leeds and Burnley. Millwall rank third for xPTS overall and sixth for xPTS on the road, showing solid underlying performance.
Oxford, meanwhile, started well with three wins in their first five games but have since struggled. Their overall record of W4-D5-L8 reflects their difficulty finding goals, averaging just 1.12 per game. Since those opening five matches, they have managed just one win (against Hull) in 12 games. Recent results include a 6-2 home loss to Middlesbrough and a 3-0 midweek defeat at Sheffield United.
Despite Oxford’s solid home record of W4-D3-L2, their victories have mostly come against bottom-half sides, apart from an opening-day win over Norwich. Oxford rank 22nd for home xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio, generating just 0.7 xG per home match.
This match could be tight, but Millwall’s form and Oxford’s weak underlying numbers make the visitors appealing on the -0.25 Asian handicap at 1.9. With this bet, a draw returns half the stake, and any Millwall victory results in a full payout.
- Best Bet: Millwall -0.25AH at 1.86 with Unibet
