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Reading vs Crawley
Reading are expected to come out on top against Crawley in their League One clash this Saturday, largely due to their impressive home form. They've posted a W4-D1-L4 record, with just one home defeat to Leyton Orient.
Across their last 20 home games, they’ve recorded a strong W13-D3-L4 tally, scoring 39 goals and only failing to score once. While their home performances have been solid, Reading have struggled on the road with a W0-D1-L3 record.
Only Birmingham and Wrexham have picked up more home points, with Reading also ranking highly for shots on target. Meanwhile, Crawley have had a difficult time away from home, ranking twentieth for away xPTS and sixteenth for non-penalty xG, managing a low 0.58 xG on the road.
Their recent form has worsened, sitting twenty-first for xPTS and xG over their last four matches, generating just 0.43 xG. After a strong start to the season, Crawley’s form has dipped significantly with nine defeats in their last 10 games in all competitions, now placing them twenty-third in xPTS and non-penalty xG.
With Reading’s excellent home record and Crawley's offensive struggles, Reading are clear favourites, and a low-scoring game with fewer than five goals seems a good way to get behind the Royals.
- Best Bet: Reading to win and under 5 goals at 2.05 with Bet365
Cambridge vs Wigan
Wigan look well-positioned to secure a win over Cambridge on Saturday, making the -0.25 Asian Handicap a smart bet at the odds available. Cambridge's dismal form has been a key factor in their struggles this season, with a record of W0-D1-L8. They've only scored six goals, failed to score in six matches, and conceded in all nine games.
Allowing two or more goals in six of these fixtures, they rank twentieth for home xPTS, averaging just 0.89 xG while conceding 2.25 goals per game. Under manager Gary Monk, they've managed only two wins in 20 games, resulting in a disappointing W2-D5-L13 record.
In contrast, Wigan have been much more consistent with a balanced W3-D4-L3 record. Their losses have come against big-spending Birmingham and a Charlton side with a strong home record, but they have shown resilience, especially on the road.
Despite a narrow defeat to Birmingham, Wigan won the xG battle 1.31 vs. 1.12, showing they can perform well. Three of their five away games have been against top-six teams, yet they rank eighth for away experts. With an average of only 0.44 xGA conceded in their last three away matches, Wigan’s defensive strength gives them a strong chance to win.
- Best Bet: Wigan -0.25AH at 2.0 with Unibet
Crewe vs Salford
Crewe are poised for victory against Salford on Saturday, driven by a remarkable turnaround since their rocky start. After failing to score in their first three games and suffering a heavy 5-0 defeat at home to Chesterfield, Crewe bounced back with a solid run, going W5-D1-L1 since a 0-0 draw with Swindon. Their only dropped points came on the road to Doncaster and Newport, although they dominated the xG battle at Newport.
Since that initial defeat, Crewe have tightened their defence, conceding an average of just 0.4 xGA and not letting in any goals at home. Over this period, they have allowed just 2.75 shots on target per game, ranking tenth for xPTS.
In contrast, Salford's away form has been dismal, sitting 23rd for xPTS and 22nd for non-penalty xG ratio. With an away xG of just 0.48, they have struggled to create scoring opportunities, scoring only two goals on the road this season. No team has taken fewer shots or shots on target away from home, and only two teams have had fewer shots in the box.
Given Crewe's strong home form and Salford's poor away performance, Crewe are well-positioned to secure a win.
- Best Bet: Crewe -0.25AH at 1.98 with Bet365
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Racing Tips
Rizzell landed two great Wednesday winners so he's back for more, with a headline pick at Carlisle.
