The next round of Christmas fixtures brings a trio of intriguing EFL clashes with plenty at stake for all the teams involved. From battles at the bottom to promotion-chasing matchups, these games offer excellent opportunities for bettors to find value.
First up, Oxford United vs Plymouth Argyle pits two struggling sides against each other in a crucial six-pointer at the foot of the Championship. Oxford will look to capitalise on the new manager bounce under Gary Rowett, while Plymouth’s woeful away record under Wayne Rooney makes this a tough task for the visitors.
Meanwhile, at Vicarage Road, high-flying Watford host a Cardiff City team desperate to reverse their fortunes on the road. Watford’s impeccable home form contrasts sharply with Cardiff’s inability to secure an away win, making this an intriguing matchup for bettors seeking value in handicap markets.
Lastly, Charlton Athletic welcome promotion hopefuls Wycombe Wanderers in a game that could have significant playoff implications. While Charlton’s home defensive solidity will be tested, Wycombe’s exceptional away scoring record ensures this encounter could be an end-to-end affair.
In this article, we’ll break down each game, analyse key stats, and highlight the best betting opportunities to help you make informed picks for the weekend.
Oxford Utd vs Plymouth Argyle
Oxford United, with the league's worst home performances, host Plymouth Argyle, who have the worst away record, in a pivotal clash at the bottom of the Championship table. This “six-pointer” comes after Oxford's recent appointment of Gary Rowett as manager, a change that saw them secure a 3-2 victory over Cardiff on Boxing Day. At home this season, Oxford hold a record of W4-D4-L3, scoring in 11 of their 12 matches. The only exception was a goalless draw with Burnley.
Plymouth, under Wayne Rooney, have struggled significantly, particularly on the road. They have an overall record of W4-D5-L11, conceding 44 goals at an average of 2.2 per game. All four of their wins have come at home. Away, they are winless with a dismal record of W0-D2-L10, managing just three goals while conceding 33 — an average of 2.75 goals per game. Their only goals on the road include a consolation in a 6-1 defeat to Norwich and one in draws against Derby and QPR. Defensively, Plymouth have conceded two or more goals in their last four away games, leaking 16 goals in total — an average of four per game during this stretch.
While both sides are struggling for form, the home crowd and the “new manager bounce” under Gary Rowett are likely to give Oxford the edge. Expect a high-scoring encounter, as Plymouth concede an average of 1.71 xG, seven shots on target, and 12.18 shots in the box per away fixture this season. Oxford should be well-positioned to score at least twice and secure a crucial victory.
- Best Bet: Oxford to score 1.5+ goals 1.91 with William Hill
Watford vs Cardiff City
Watford host a struggling Cardiff side at Vicarage Road, and the odds on a home win seem generous given the teams’ contrasting form. This season, Watford boast an impressive home record of W9-D2-L0, conceding just six goals. In contrast, Cardiff have struggled away from home with a record of W0-D6-L5, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game.
Watford have been efficient at home, even if their underlying metrics place them 18th for home xPTS and 14th for xG ratio. Under manager Tom Cleverley, they remain unbeaten in 15 home games across this season and the last, with an overall record of W10-D5-L0, conceding just eight goals — an average of 0.53 per game.
Cardiff, on the other hand, have been slightly unlucky on their travels, ranking 15th for away xPTS and 14th for xG ratio. However, they have struggled to create chances, generating just 0.7 xG per away game — one of the league’s lowest, with only five teams faring worse.
This matchup is likely to be tight, as neither side has been prolific in front of goal. Cardiff have managed just one clean sheet on the road this season, while Watford have scored in every home game. Additionally, Cardiff have conceded two or more goals in each of their last three away matches. Over their last eight games, Cardiff sit 17th for xPTS, while Watford rank 9th.
With Watford available at odds of 2.05 for a home win, there is good value, but I prefer to play it safe. Backing Watford on a -0.25 Asian handicap at 1.74 with Unibet seems the more prudent option.
- Best Bet: Watford -0.25AH at 1.74 with Unibet
Charlton Athletic vs Wycombe Wanderers
Wycombe Wanderers travel to Charlton Athletic aiming to strengthen their push for automatic promotion. Wycombe currently sit just one point behind Birmingham, although the Blues have a game in hand. Meanwhile, Charlton find themselves in 11th place but remain only four points adrift of the playoff spots.
Charlton have been relatively consistent at home, scoring in nine of their 10 matches while conceding in six of those games. Despite their mid-table position, Charlton are underperforming based on their xPTS, which place them 8th, and their xG ratio, which ranks them 10th. Defensively, they are solid and give up very few chances — only Huddersfield have conceded fewer shots on target at home than Charlton this season.
However, Charlton will face a formidable Wycombe side that boasts an excellent away record of W8-D3-L1, averaging 2.58 goals per game on the road. Wycombe have scored in every away match this season, netting at least twice in 11 of their 12 away fixtures. That said, they have also shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding in nine of those 12 games. Even when keeping clean sheets, such as in their 1-0 win over Wigan, they have relied on a bit of fortune, with their opponents generating 1.21 xGA in that game.
In the 22 combined matches played by these two teams this season — 10 at home for Charlton and 12 away for Wycombe — there have been just seven clean sheets in total. Remarkably, between them, they have failed to score in only one game. Both teams to score has hit in 15 of these 22 matches, equating to a success rate of nearly 70%, which translates to implied odds of approximately 1.43.
Charlton have managed just one clean sheet in their last five home games, while Wycombe have kept only one clean sheet in their last four away matches.
With both teams having distinct strengths — Charlton’s consistent attacking returns at home and Wycombe’s high-scoring away form — this promises to be a competitive encounter.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.85 with William Hill
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