As we head into another crucial round of League One and League Two action, three standout fixtures offer strong betting opportunities: Grimsby vs Tranmere, Rotherham vs Leyton Orient, and Notts County vs Barrow.
Each match presents a compelling mix of form trends, attacking potential, and defensive vulnerabilities, creating ideal conditions for profitable wagers.
Grimsby have been building momentum in their push toward the playoffs and will look to capitalise on Tranmere’s dreadful away form, where they have lost ten consecutive road games. Meanwhile, Rotherham and Leyton Orient both come into their clash with strong attacking records, suggesting a game full of goal-scoring chances. Finally, Notts County are pushing for automatic promotion and should prove too strong for a Barrow side that have collapsed after a promising start to the season.
This article will break down the best betting angles for these three matches, highlighting where the value lies and why certain trends point towards a high probability of success. Whether it’s backing a home win, expecting goals, or finding angles in defensive weaknesses, these matchups provide plenty of opportunities for smart betting selections.
Grimsby Town vs Tranmere
Grimsby Town have struggled with consistency this season, recording W16-D4-L13, with their matches averaging 2.91 goals per game. However, their recent form has seen a significant improvement, as they are currently on a six-match unbeaten run. At home, they have lost just once since early December, a 2-0 defeat to Crewe, and their home record during this period stands at W5-D2-L1, scoring 16 goals and conceding just nine. This equates to an average of two goals scored per home game. Notably, they secured a 3-0 victory over Port Vale in late December, an excellent result, and now sit just outside the playoff places with a game in hand.
While Grimsby have been strong going forward, scoring in 13 of their 16 home matches, they have struggled defensively, keeping just two clean sheets at home all season. Over the last eight matches, they rank 13th for xPTS and 10th for non-penalty xG ratio, highlighting their ability to create chances.
They welcome a Tranmere side that has endured a disastrous season, winning just six of their 34 matches while conceding an average of 1.56 goals per game. Their last victory came at home against bottom-placed Carlisle on January 4th, and their form over the last 20 matches reads W2-D5-L12, with a scoring average of just 0.7 goals per game while conceding 1.8.
Their away form has been even worse, with 10 consecutive away defeats, scoring just five goals in those matches while conceding an average of 2.60 goals per game. Over this period, they have failed to score in 50% of those games and have conceded two or more goals in nine of the ten losses. No team in League Two has picked up fewer points on the road than Tranmere, who have collected just eight away points all season. Four of those points came in their first two away games, a 0-0 draw with Port Vale and a 2-1 win over Carlisle, meaning they have managed just four points in their last 14 away fixtures.
Recent performances have also been poor, as they beat Bromley 2-1 but lost the xG battle 2.85 to 1.17 and drew 1-1 with MK Dons while losing the xG battle 0.71 to 0.52. Over the course of the season, they have won the xG battle just once on the road, in a 1-0 defeat at Cheltenham, which was also the only time they conceded fewer than two goals in their 14 away losses.
Over the last eight matches, Tranmere rank 20th for xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio, while on the road, they sit 23rd for xPTS and xG ratio, conceding an average of 1.63 xGA per match, the worst in the league. No team has conceded more shots on target than Tranmere, while they also rank 22nd for shots conceded in the box.
With Grimsby in good form and pushing for a playoff spot, they should have too much quality for a struggling Tranmere side. Backing a home win looks like the best play in this matchup
- Best Bet: Grimsby win at 1.94 with Vbet
Rotherham vs Leyton Orient
Rotherham have endured a tough return to League One, currently sitting 14th in the table with 41 points from 33 matches (W11-D8-L14). They have scored 38 goals and conceded 40, leaving them eight points above the relegation zone and 15 points adrift of the playoffs, effectively meaning their season is fizzling out. Their home record is the 10th best in the league, with W8-D3-L5, though defensive issues persist as they have kept just three clean sheets at home all season while failing to score in five of their 16 home matches.
Despite their inconsistencies, Rotherham have been able to trouble strong sides, scoring against top-10 teams Birmingham, Wrexham, and Barnsley—with Birmingham sitting at the top of the table. Their 1-0 home defeat last time out was the first time they had failed to score in their previous six home games, where they averaged 1.83 goals per match. They have netted two or more goals in nine of their 16 home fixtures. Over the last eight matches, they rank second in the division for non-penalty xG (1.49 per game), only behind Wrexham, further highlighting their attacking ability.
Defensively, Rotherham have struggled against stronger opposition, keeping just one clean sheet in their home matches against top-half sides—a 2-0 win over 12th-placed Stevenage. More than 56% of their matches have seen over 2.5 goals, and in five of their nine matches against teams in the top half, both teams have found the net.
Leyton Orient have had a strong season and, over the last 15 matches, only Charlton and Birmingham have collected more points. Their record during this run stands at W10-D1-L4, but things have taken a downturn recently, with Orient losing their last three league games. Before this slump, they had gone W12-D2-L1, conceding just eight goals in that stretch.
Despite their strong overall form, underlying data suggests some of those victories may have been fortunate, as they rank 11th for xPTS and 10th for non-penalty xG ratio over the last eight games. Their away matches have frequently been high-scoring, with 56% of their road games seeing over 2.5 goals, and they have kept just five clean sheets on their travels. Against top-seven opposition, they have struggled defensively, recording W2-D0-L4, failing to keep a single clean sheet in those six matches.
Orient’s recent away form has seen just one clean sheet in their last six road games—a 0-0 draw with Peterborough. However, they have been consistent in front of goal, scoring in six of their last eight away matches, with their last eight away games averaging 3.38 goals per match.
Given Leyton Orient’s recent defensive issues on the road and Rotherham’s ability to find the net at home, goals look a strong play in this match. The best approach is backing over 2.25 goals at 1.925 with Bet365, which means if exactly two goals are scored, half of the stake is refunded, while three or more goals result in a full payout. With Rotherham’s high non-penalty xG and Orient’s tendency for high-scoring away fixtures, this looks like a strong betting angle.
- Best Bet: Over 2.25 goals at 1.925 with Bet365
Notts County vs Barrow
County’s defensive solidity has been a key factor in their success, as they have kept eight clean sheets in 16 home matches, failing to score in just three games. Since early October, they have lost just once at home, a 2-1 defeat to league leaders Walsall. Over their last 14 League Two matches, they boast a record of W9-D3-L2, with the only defeats coming against Walsall and a 1-0 away loss to Port Vale, who are currently sixth.
Notts County have been dominant against the league’s weaker sides, going unbeaten against the bottom five teams this season with a record of W7-D2-L0, conceding just twice. Their underlying data further backs up their strong home performances, ranking second for xPTS at home and first for home xG ratio, generating 1.70 xG per match while conceding just 0.66 xGA. No team in League Two has had more shots in the box than County, and over the last eight matches, they rank top for xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio, conceding just 0.58 non-penalty xGA per game.
They face a struggling Barrow side, who sit 19th in the table with 37 points, 11 clear of the relegation zone. While they are unlikely to go down, their early-season promise has completely disappeared. After an impressive start that saw them joint-top after 10 matches, they have since collapsed, managing just five more wins in their last 26 games while suffering 15 defeats. Their attacking output has been poor, averaging just 0.88 goals per game.
Over the last 23 matches, only Tranmere have collected fewer points than Barrow (18). Similarly, only Tranmere have a worse away record this season. Barrow’s record on the road stands at W2-D3-L11, scoring just eight goals in 16 away matches. Two of those goals came in a 2-0 victory at Grimsby back in September, and two more came in a 3-2 defeat to Cheltenham recently. However, those goals at Cheltenham were their first in four away matches, underlining their attacking struggles on the road.
Barrow recently sacked manager Stephen Clemence after just eight months in charge, following a run of one win in 15 matches. His replacement, Andy Whing, previously managed Solihull Moors in the National League. While performances have improved slightly under Whing, with a record of W3-D0-L5, their away form remains dreadful, with three straight away defeats, scoring just twice while conceding seven, an average of 2.33 goals per match.
Barrow’s recent victories have come against weaker opposition, beating MK Dons (17th), Gillingham (18th) and Grimsby (8th). However, their most recent loss to bottom-placed Carlisle—who secured their first win in seven matches—highlights their ongoing struggles.
Despite Cheltenham’s recent 3-2 victory over Barrow, this game is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair. Barrow’s away matches have averaged just 1.94 goals per game, while Notts County’s home matches have seen an average of only 2.06 goals. This is largely due to County’s defensive strength, having kept eight clean sheets at home.
Additionally, Barrow have failed to score in 10 of their 16 away matches, which suggests that a low-scoring Notts County win is the most likely outcome. Given Notts County’s superior home record, defensive stability, and Barrow’s poor away form, backing Notts County to win and under 4.5 goals at odds of 2.05 with Betway offers excellent value.
- Best Bet: Notts County win and under 4.5 goals at 2.05 with Betway
