After a profitable start to the new season, we are back with three more selections from this weekend’s EFL action. Last time out we went 2/3, with only Coventry letting us down despite winning their xG battle 1.43 vs 0.43. The performances were there, the margins just did not fall our way in that one.
This week’s focus is on three fixtures that stand out for both form and underlying numbers. We’ll be covering Stevenage vs Northampton in League One, where the hosts have started perfectly and the visitors are already showing familiar defensive flaws. In League Two, Crewe vs Crawley pits the division’s early pacesetters against one of the poorest sides in the xPTS table. We will also take a look at Ipswich vs Southampton in the Championship, with the home side hit by a string of injuries and departures as they face one of the league’s most talented squads.
Each match offers a clear statistical edge that lines up with the eye test. We’ll break down the key data points, team news and tactical match-ups, and where the betting value lies this weekend.
Crewe Alexandra vs Crawley Town
Crewe have started the League Two season in strong fashion, sitting top of the early xPTS table with 4.8 from their opening two games. They have scored five times across those matches and posted a league-best 5.4 xGF, while conceding just 2.2 xGA. Their 3-1 win at Salford was a statement of attacking intent, producing 3.94 xG, 22 shots and five big chances. Although they were less incisive in the 2-2 draw with Accrington, that match still showed their ability to sustain pressure, with 15 shots and 25 touches in the box.
Crawley’s numbers are in sharp contrast. They rank 23rd in the division on xPTS (1.1) and have a -2.3 xGD after two games. Their 3-0 defeat at Grimsby saw them concede 20 shots and 47 opposition box touches, while creating just 0.30 xG themselves. Even in their home game against Newport, where they had 61% possession and 18 shots, they managed only 0.96 xG and were beaten 2-1 by a side that created more from fewer chances.
The underlying data points to a clear stylistic clash. Crewe have shown they can create high-quality chances in volume, especially against defences that allow space in the box. Crawley, meanwhile, have struggled to defend their penalty area and have been inefficient in turning possession into meaningful threat.
With Crewe’s early attacking form, Crawley’s defensive vulnerabilities, and the gap in xPTS performance, the home side are well placed to take advantage. If Crewe hit the levels they managed at Salford, they should create enough chances to win this comfortably, particularly if Crawley’s issues in both boxes continue.
- Best Bet: Crewe win at 10/11 with Coral
Ipswich Town vs Southampton
Ipswich return to Portman Road for their second Championship fixture, but the mood around the club is far from optimistic. A poor transfer window has seen them lose Nathan Broadhead and Omari Hutchinson, while Jaden Philogene remains with the squad but is side lined through injury. Azor Matusiwa is doubtful with a groin strain, while Jens Cajuste and Chuba Akpom are not yet ready after minimal pre-season involvement. Chiedozie Ogbene will start on the right despite making his first start in nine months last weekend and looking short of sharpness. If Matusiwa misses out, the midfield will be Jack Taylor and Cameron Humphreys, with 20-year-old Finley Barbrook – who made his debut in midweek – likely on the bench. Ipswich’s lack of depth was evident against Bromley when they named two goalkeepers among the substitutes.
Southampton arrive with a fully stocked squad and the ability to change games from the bench. Against Wrexham, they had Cameron Archer, Ross Stewart, Ryan Manning, Damion Downs and Mateus Fernandes come on, while Ben Brereton Diaz, Nathan Wood and Kuryu Matsuki were unused. They produced 4.14 xG and 27 shots in that game, following it up with a 1-0 EFL Cup win at Northampton where they created two big chances and restricted the hosts to none.
Last season, Saints’ away record was poor overall (12 points, two wins), but one of those wins was a 2-1 victory at Portman Road, and they also took a point in the reverse fixture. Ipswich were far stronger then; now, they look short in numbers, quality and fitness. They were the bookmakers’ pre-season favourites for promotion, and with that comes expectation. If the performance matches the flat display against Birmingham, the home crowd are likely to turn frustrated quickly.
With Southampton’s possession game, attacking depth, and ability to sustain pressure, this match looks tilted in the visitors’ favour, especially if Ipswich tire and lack impact options late on.
- Best Bet: Southampton +0.25AH 1/1 with Bet365
Stevenage Borough vs Northampton Town
Stevenage have started the League One season with intent, winning both opening matches to sit 5th in the table. They edged a 3-2 win at Blackpool despite only 34% possession, creating 1.94 xG and three big chances, before following up with a controlled 1-0 home victory over Rotherham where they restricted their opponents to just 0.29 xG and no shots on target. Those performances have them second in the xPTS table, with a +1.4 xGD and 3.1 xGF from their first two games, showing the underlying data supports their results.
Northampton’s start has been far less convincing. They drew 0-0 at home to Bradford in a match where they generated just 0.17 xG and were beaten 3-1 at Wigan where they created just two big chances but conceded four. They allowed 2.39 xG and 13 shots inside their box in that defeat. Across both games, they have produced just 1.02 xGF and conceded 4.57 xGA, leaving them bottom of the xPTS standings with a -2.5 xGD.
Last season’s away record offers little encouragement for the visitors. Northampton picked up only 23 points from 23 away matches, winning five, and conceded 35 goals on the road. Against top-half sides away from home, they frequently shipped multiple goals.
Stevenage’s strengths which are a compact shape, aerial dominance, and ability to create from limited possession will match up well against Northampton’s current weaknesses in both boxes. Northampton’s defensive numbers suggest they will struggle to cope with Stevenage’s direct play and set-piece threat, while their lack of attacking penetration makes it hard to see them taking control at the Lamex.
With form, underlying metrics, and historical away struggles all pointing in the same direction, the hosts look well-placed to extend their perfect start.
Best Bet: Stevenage win & under 4.5 goals at 10/11 with Ladbrokes
GambleAware