Derby vs Bristol City
The pressure is already on Rams boss Paul Warne. Poor performances and results have seen Derby win just once in the league from their opening three games and then dumped out of the EFL Cup by Barrow.
The Rams are averaging 1.9 expected goals against (xGA), with only four sides conceding more shots. Their underlying performance is worse in attack, with no team having had fewer shots and only two sides having had fewer shots on target. Looking at their build-up and construction of play, it's worrying, with the Rams sitting in the bottom four for progressive passes and passes to the final third.
The Rams' only win this term was over Middlesbrough, which they won 1-0. However, they lost the xG battle 2.08 vs 1.08. On the day, Boro won the shot count 20 vs 3, with the Rams scoring their only shot on target.
The visitors have been improving under Liam Manning. After just six wins from his first 21 games, it's now two defeats in their last 13 Championship fixtures, winning six. Over the last seven home games in the Championship, the Robins have won five and drawn two with four clean sheets.
They have boosted their attack this campaign with some excellent purchases resulting in only three sides scoring more than the Robins. Only one side has had more shots on target so far this term, with them sitting fifth for xG.
I think the Robins will win the game, but we can take them on 0.0AH, meaning that if the game ends in a draw, we will get our money back, while any positive result for the visitors will see us profit.
- Bristol City 0.0AH at 1.80 with Bet365
Birmingham vs Wigan
The Blues recovered from their opening-day disappointment after they were held 1-1 by Reading to record back-to-back wins at Wycombe and Leyton Orient. Up next is Wigan, who travel to St Andrews with a near-capacity crowd expected.
Defensively, the Blues have been strong this term, allowing one of the fewest shots and shots on target, with an average of just three per game with an xGA of 0.54. Alfie May started the season in great form with three goals in three games and is joined by Scottish international Lyndon Dykes, who signed on Wednesday.
The hosts have now scored five goals in their last two games as they adjust to life in League One but are yet to keep a clean sheet.
Wigan have struggled so far this season, especially in attack, with an average xG of 0.55 per game. The Latics are failing to create any type of goal-scoring opportunity; no side has had fewer shots on target so far across the entire EFL.
Wigan have managed one victory so far this season, beating Crawley 1-0 last time out. This is despite Crawley winning the xG battle 0.95 vs 0.43 and Wigan scoring from their only effort on target. Across this season and last, Wigan have won just five of their last 20 away games in League One, conceding an average of 1.80 goals per fixture.
The odds of backing the Blues to win the match are too low, but if we add in at least two goals and over six match corners, we can boost this to 1.83 with Bet365. The hosts have seen an average of 10 corners per match so far this term, with all three games having at least nine. Wigan games have averaged 12.33 match corners, with them conceding nine, six, and six corners across their three fixtures. The hosts could well cover this line on their own.
- Birmingham to win, over 1 match goal and over 5 corners – 1.83 with Bet365.
Swindon vs Notts County
Swindon have started the season with W0-D2-L1. The first of their two points and only goal came in the opening weekend as they drew 1-1 with Chesterfield. The point and goal were fortunate as they lost the xG battle 1.65 vs 0.22, the shot count 12 vs 6 and the shot on target count 4 vs 1. They then managed a 0-0 draw with Crewe who have a record of W0-D1-L2 and sit 18th for xPTS.
So far this season they have managed just five shots on target and a total of 0.92 xG, an average of just 0.306 per game, the lowest across the entire EFL. Their last 40 games in League Two have returned a record of W9-D1-L21 conceding an average of 1.85 goals per game.
County have been good so far this season and remained undefeated with one win and two draws. They started slowly with a 0-0 draw at Tranmere but then have generated a total of 5.41 xG in the next two fixtures, registering 27 shots and 11shots on target.
It’s taken time for County manager, Stuart Maynard to get to grips with the role after his move from Wealdstone, but performances on the pitch looks promising. Attacking trio of Dan Crowley, Jodi Jones and Alassana Jatta all feature heavily in either shots taken, shots on target, xG or goals scored.
The visitors have scored in 16 of their last 20 league fixtures, and with Swindon struggling in front of goal, I am not sure I can see them scoring at least twice if County does find the net. It's early in the season with limited data and performances to assess, so I am happy to take County on the 0.0 Asian Handicap.
- Notts County 0.0AH at 1.83 with 10Bet
