This week's EFL betting tips spotlight a revitalised Cardiff City aiming to extend their impressive turnaround.
In League Two, we back AFC Wimbledon to maintain their stellar home performance and anticipate a high-scoring encounter between Chesterfield and Accrington.
Cardiff City vs Blackburn Rovers
Cardiff City appear well-placed to secure all three points against a struggling Blackburn, making them an attractive choice for punters.
After a poor start with just one point from their first seven games, scoring only two goals and conceding 17, Cardiff has staged a remarkable comeback. Over the last seven matches, they have achieved a W4-D2-L1 record, netting 11 goals and conceding only three. This impressive turnaround, led by caretaker head coach Omer Riza, has lifted them within two points of mid-table safety.
Cardiff’s home form has been especially strong, boasting four consecutive wins against respectable opponents like Millwall, Portsmouth, Plymouth, and Norwich, including three clean sheets. This aligns with advanced metrics, where they rank second in non-penalty xG ratio and third for xPTS over their four most recent games.
In contrast, Blackburn, after a solid start, has seen their form falter. Since October, they’ve managed only one win, with a W1-D1-L5 record, failing to score in five of their last seven outings.
Away from home, Blackburn are winless in six games (W0-D3-L3), scoring only four goals and securing just one clean sheet. They rank 21st for non-penalty xG ratio and xPTS over their last four games, with an away xG of just 0.50, only slightly better than Watford.
Cardiff’s momentum wants me to get behind them against a struggle Rovers side, but we can take the hosts on the Asian handicap which gives us a little more protection should the game end in a draw.
- Best Bet: Cardiff -0.25 AH at 2.04 with Bet365
Chesterfield vs Accrington Stanley
Chesterfield welcome Accrington on Saturday in a matchup that promises goals, with both sides showing strong potential to find the net. Chesterfield have maintained consistent offensive form, boasting a W5-D7-L2 record with 28 goals scored and 15 conceded this season.
They have scored in 12 of their 14 games, with both teams finding the net in nine. Notably, all seven of Chesterfield’s home fixtures have seen both teams score, underscoring their tendency for high-scoring games. Their solid xPTS ranking at home further reflects their offensive strength.
Accrington, though sitting 21st for away xPTS, has shown scoring capability on the road, netting in five of six away matches. With an overall record of W3-D4-L6, Accrington have scored 15 and conceded 22 this season, and both teams have scored in nine of their matches.
They rank fifth for away shots on target ratio, demonstrating their knack for creating opportunities, and have scored two or more goals in their last four away games, highlighting their offensive potential.
With Chesterfield’s consistent home scoring and Accrington’s proven attack on the road, both teams scoring in this clash seems highly probable.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.75 with Quinnbet.
AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby Town
AFC Wimbledon is well-positioned for a victory against Grimsby. Despite playing only five home games due to pitch issues, Wimbledon have been dominant on their turf, winning all five with an impressive 15-2 aggregate score.
The two goals they conceded came in a 4-2 win over Colchester, emphasizing their strong overall play. They rank eighth in xPTS overall but would sit sixth for points per game. Over the last four games, Wimbledon sit seventh for non-penalty xG ratio and sixth on xPTS, with the league's highest average home xG and most shots on target and shots in the box. Fresh off an FA Cup victory over rivals MK Dons, they’ll be riding high.
In contrast, Grimsby have struggled, holding a W7-D0-L7 record and ranking 19th in xPTS overall. Their recent form is shaky, with a rank of 22nd for xPTS and 23rd for non-penalty xG ratio.
Though they’ve managed some away wins (W4-D0-L3), they have only achieved two clean sheets and have been vulnerable against top ten sides. Given their defensive inconsistencies, Wimbledon’s potent home attack seems likely to secure the win with multiple goals.
- Best Bet: Wimbledon to win and over 1.5 goals at 1.80 with Bet365
