As the season heads into its decisive stage, the pressure is mounting across the leagues — and this weekend throws up three key fixtures packed with narrative and betting potential.
At Carrow Road, Norwich and West Brom clash in what could be a goal-filled shootout with playoff implications. Down in South Wales, Cardiff continue their survival mission against a Sheffield Wednesday side still eyeing an unlikely top-six push. And over at St. Andrew’s, promotion-bound Birmingham City look to keep their incredible home record intact against struggling Shrewsbury.
With storylines ranging from playoff dreams to relegation battles and title races, we have picked out the value across all three matchups — from goal markets to smart angle bets — to help you make the most of the action.
Norwich City vs West Brom
Norwich City’s season is starting to slip away. They now sit 13th in the table, six points off the playoff spots, and this is a must-win game if they’re to stay in the hunt. Their home form has generally been solid — with a record of W8-D7-L4 at Carrow Road — losing just four times. Only league leaders Leeds United have scored more home goals than Norwich this season.
But their defensive issues are proving costly. Only two teams have conceded more goals at home, and they have kept just one clean sheet all season at Carrow Road. They have failed to score in just two home matches, meaning both teams to score has landed in 16 of their 19 games.
Looking at the data from their last eight matches, Norwich rank 10th for PTS and fifth for non-penalty xG ratio. They are averaging 1.16 non-penalty xG and conceding 0.80 non-penalty xGA per game. Their big chance ratio sits at 50%, ranking 11th — highlighting that while they create and concede chances, they are not dominating either end.
At home, they rank fifth for xPTS, averaging 1.65 xG and conceding 1.10 xGA — a clear indicator that goals are expected at both ends. Only three sides average more shots on target in home games than Norwich, and both teams have found the net in their last six, and eight of their last ten at Carrow Road. Their only clean sheet at home came way back in October in a 4-0 win over Hull whilst they have now scored in 12 of their last 13 home games.
They welcome a West Brom side still firmly in the playoff picture. The Baggies are sixth, level on points with seventh-placed Bristol City, and just two behind fifth-placed Coventry — so they can’t afford a slip-up either. Their away form has been mixed (W4-D10-L5), but only six teams have scored more goals on the road. Defensively, they have been strong, conceding fewer goals than anyone outside the top three, yet the Baggies have managed just three clean sheets away from home — the last one back in November at Sunderland.
West Brom have failed to score in just three of their 19 away matches — against Middlesbrough, Sunderland, and in a 0-0 draw at Blackburn. Both teams to score has landed in nine of their last ten away games.
In total, across Norwich’s 19 home games and West Brom’s 19 away games, there have only been four clean sheets. Norwich and West Brom have failed to score in just five of those 38 games, with both teams scoring landing in 31 of them — that’s a huge 82% hit rate.
With an implied probability of 82%, the fair odds for both teams to score should be closer to 1.22 — but we can back it at 1.85, which looks like excellent value.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.85 with William Hill
Cardiff City vs Sheffield Wednesday
It’s set to be an intriguing clash in South Wales as Cardiff City, currently 21st in the table, host 12th-placed Sheffield Wednesday. Despite their mid-table standing, Wednesday still have an outside shot at the playoffs — the Owls are just six points behind sixth-placed West Brom.
Cardiff’s home record reads W7-D3-L9. They have only kept five clean sheets all season but have failed to score in just six of those games — and encouragingly, the Bluebirds have scored in each of their last eight at home.
Before Christmas, Cardiff were in real trouble. After 22 games, they were joint-bottom with Plymouth, having won just four games and scored a league-low 21 goals, collecting only 18 points. But things have improved. Over their last 16 matches, they have picked up another 16 points, winning four more times and slowly edging clear of the bottom three.
At home, they have lost just twice in their last eight, collecting 12 points in that run. Interestingly, all five of their clean sheets this season have come against teams currently sitting 12th or lower. Against sides 11th and above, they have only managed one shutout — a 1-0 win over Millwall.
Sheffield Wednesday sit right on that dividing line in 12th. Their record against teams 12th and above this season is W3-D9-L9 — not great — and they have only managed two clean sheets in those games. Their most recent shutouts came at home to 19th-placed Hull and 16th-placed Swansea. Before that, you’d have to go back to mid-October for their last clean sheet.
Away from home, Wednesday’s record is W9-D2-L8. They have kept five clean sheets on the road but failed to score in six games. Notably, four of those blanks came against the current top four: Leeds, Sheffield United, Burnley, and Sunderland, plus a 0-0 at seventh-placed Bristol City. Against sides eighth and below, they have scored in every game bar one.
Their five away clean sheets have mainly come against struggling teams — including a recent 3-0 win over bottom-side Plymouth, which is their only clean sheet in their last six matches. After failing to score in three of their first four away games, Wednesday have since found the net in 12 of their last 15 on the road. The only teams to shut them out since then are Leeds, Burnley, and Sheffield United — the league’s top three.
In terms of recent form, Wednesday rank 4th for xPTS over the last eight games, with a healthy xG of 1.28 per match. Cardiff, meanwhile, sit 16th with an xG of just 0.91 and a non-penalty xGA of 1.07. Only Plymouth have conceded more big chances than Cardiff in that period — which boosts the likelihood of Wednesday getting on the scoresheet.
However, given that both sides struggle to consistently keep teams out, both teams to score looks like a strong play here.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.83 with Ladbrokes
Birmingham City vs Shrewsbury Town
Birmingham City are almost there. With two games in hand on second-placed Wrexham — who are nine points ahead — and a huge 12-point gap over third-placed Wycombe (also with a game in hand), it’s now a matter of when, not if, the Blues secure promotion.
Their home form has been nothing short of outstanding: W16-D3-L0, scoring 33 goals and conceding just eight at St. Andrew’s. They have kept 12 clean sheets in 19 home games, and five of those eight goals conceded came in the opening four matches. That means they have only conceded three goals in their last 15 home games — a phenomenal defensive record.
They host a struggling Shrewsbury side with the worst away record in the league: W2-D4-L12. They have scored just 16 goals on the road and are yet to keep a clean sheet, while failing to score in nine of their 18 away games.
Shrewsbury's away matches have generally been low-scoring — averaging 2.67 goals per game, but that is skewed by a 5-3 win over Crawley and a 4-1 loss at Cambridge. If you remove that eight-goal thriller, their away games average just 2.35 goals. In their 12 away defeats, matches have averaged just 2.08 goals, and they have only scored three goals across those games. Despite their poor form, they rarely suffer heavy losses — only once have they conceded four goals, and just three times have they let in three or more.
At home, Birmingham's matches are also tight, averaging just 2.16 goals per game. Given Shrewsbury's blunt attack and Birmingham’s elite defence, it's hard to see the visitors scoring here. Over their last eight games, Shrewsbury have averaged just 0.81 non-penalty xG, with only 0.49 xG from open play. Meanwhile, Birmingham have conceded just 0.36 xGA from open play over that same period.
That makes a strong case for a home win and under 3.5 goals. Birmingham would need to score four or more for this bet to lose — something they have done just once at home all season (a 4-0 win over Cambridge). The Shrews have appointed Michael Appleton after Gareth Ainsworth's sudden departure for Gillingham which left the fans and club in a state of shock and this will further disrupt the visitors.
The Blues are a professional, composed side and should be expected to manage the game, secure another three points, and take yet another step toward Championship football next season.
- Best Bet: Birmingham win and under 3.5 goals at 1.83 with Betway
Further Reading
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- Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich Town Prediction and Betting Tips
- Manchester United vs Fulham Prediction and Betting Tips
- Newcastle United vs Brighton and Hove Albion Prediction and Betting Tips
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