As the season heads into its final stretch, the stakes could not be higher across League One and the Championship. Promotion pushes, playoff races, and relegation scraps are all in full swing — and that makes this weekend’s slate a goldmine for betting value.
Wrexham are closing in on back-to-back promotions and will look to take care of struggling Bristol Rovers at home. In the Championship, Derby and Luton go head-to-head in a relegation six-pointer that could decide their fate, while Millwall continue their late playoff charge with a trip to an out-of-form Blackburn side that seems to have lost direction.
With plenty on the line in all three matches, here’s where the smart money might lie this weekend.
Derby County vs Luton Town
It's a massive clash at the bottom of the Championship as Derby County host Luton Town in a high-stakes relegation six-pointer. Derby sit 21st, just one point clear of Cardiff who currently occupy the final relegation spot. Luton, having played the same number of games, are three points behind Derby and come into this with a significantly worse goal difference — meaning a defeat here would leave them six points adrift with just three games remaining, effectively seven when factoring in that goal gap.
For Luton, it’s been a disastrous follow-up to last season’s Premier League relegation. What should have been a promotion push has turned into a battle for survival. The arrival of Matt Bloomfield from Wycombe has not sparked the turnaround fans hoped for. His record stands at W3-D6-L7, and although he failed to win any of his first eight games in charge, there has been a slight improvement: just two defeats in the last eight, one of which came at second-placed Burnley, and the other a home loss to Blackburn.
During that run, Luton have held Leeds and beaten Hull, Cardiff, and Portsmouth — showing signs of resilience at a crucial time.
Derby, tipped by many as relegation favourites before the season began, have shown more fight under John Eustace. Since his appointment, the Rams have recorded W4-D2-L4, with home wins over Blackburn, Coventry, and Preston, as well as a victory away at Plymouth. They have not won in their last three matches, but a recent 0-0 draw at home to league leaders Burnley was a positive result.
With so much on the line, tension will be high — and cards look extremely likely.
Derby matches have averaged 3.42 cards this season, with their most recent game (another six-pointer vs Portsmouth) seeing nine. At home, Derby have received at least one card in all 21 games, while their opponents have been shown at least one in 18 of those. Derby home matches have averaged 3.14 cards overall.
Luton, meanwhile, average 2.62 cards per away game, and since Bloomfield’s arrival, they have received two or more cards in five of their eight away fixtures. Only four Championship sides have averaged more cards on the road than Luton, and just six teams have seen more overall match cards in away games.
Referee James Linington is in charge of this fixture. He has officiated 20 EFL games this season, averaging 3.7 cards per match. In the Championship specifically, that figure rises to 3.87 per game, with both teams receiving at least one card in 12 of his 15 Championship outings. He has produced four or more cards in 10 of those 15 games, reinforcing the potential for a fiery affair.
For those looking to boost the odds slightly, adding under 4.5 goals is a solid option. Derby’s home matches this season have averaged just 2.0 goals, and since Eustace took charge, that figure drops further to 1.6. Under Bloomfield, Luton games are averaging 1.81 goals. With so much at stake, expect a cagey, tense affair — with cards on the table and goals likely at a premium.
- Best Bet: Both teams 10+ booking points each, 40+ booking points and under 4.5 match goals at 1.75 with Skybet
Blackburn Rovers vs Millwall
Millwall still have an outside shot at making the playoffs, currently sitting ninth and just three points behind sixth-placed Coventry. Form is on their side — over the last five matches, only Burnley have picked up more points than the Lions. In fact, across their last 15 league games, Millwall have only suffered four defeats, against Sunderland, Leeds, Bristol City, and Plymouth.
They have picked up impressive wins recently over Portsmouth, Sheffield United, and Middlesbrough — the latter two especially notable as both are firmly in the promotion race. Away from home, they have also improved. Since mid-February, Millwall have lost just twice on the road — to Leeds and Sunderland — and in 10 away fixtures in 2024, they have been beaten only three times.
Interestingly, they are defying the underlying metrics. Over the last eight games, Millwall rank 22nd for xPTS and 21st for non-penalty xG ratio. But that is no surprise given their direct, no-nonsense style and ability to grind out results — a trademark of this team under pressure.
They now face a Blackburn Rovers side in dismal form. Rovers have won just two of their last 11 matches. At the halfway point of the season (21 games in), Blackburn sat fifth with 11 wins and 37 points — just four behind Burnley. But since then, over their next 21 fixtures, only Luton have collected fewer points. Blackburn’s second-half record reads W5-D4-L12, with just 20 goals scored.
A lack of support from the club's owners, the Venkys, ultimately led to John Eustace leaving for Derby County — a surprising move considering Derby’s position. Valerien Ismael took over, but results have not improved. Under his leadership, Rovers have won just once in eight games — a narrow win over Luton — and lost five times, keeping only one clean sheet in that run.
Their recent data backs up the eye test: over the last eight matches, Blackburn sit 16th for xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio. Local media have reported that Ismael is already under pressure, with the club reportedly sounding out replacements.
With Blackburn’s season all but over — no realistic chance of the playoffs and no danger of relegation — these final games may simply be about assessing the squad ahead of next season. For Millwall, it’s the opposite: everything is still to play for.
Rovers have only won five games all season against top-half opponents. While Millwall’s away record against top-half sides hasn’t been great either, the stakes are much higher for the visitors. With two home games following this one, Millwall will be confident they can at least avoid defeat and keep their playoff hopes alive.
- Best Bet: Millwall +0.25AH at 1.85 with Bet365
Wrexham vs Bristol Rovers
Wrexham sit second in League One with just four games remaining, on the verge of back-to-back promotions as they aim to reach the Championship. They are currently on 82 points, one ahead of Wycombe, but face a tough run-in after this weekend’s clash with Bristol Rovers on Good Friday.
At home, Wrexham have been outstanding: W15-D4-L2, conceding just 14 goals. They have averaged 1.76 goals per home game, and nine of their 15 home wins have come by at least a two-goal margin. They have only failed to score at home twice this season — goalless draws against Bolton and Huddersfield.
Against bottom-half sides, Wrexham have been ruthless, winning 10 games — six of those by two or more goals. Over the last eight matches, they rank eighth for xPTS and ninth for non-penalty xG ratio, with only seven teams creating more big chances in that period. Across the season at home, they are averaging 1.37 xG per game.
They now host a Bristol Rovers side in dreadful away form. Their record on the road is W3-D2-L16, and they have failed to score in 13 of their 21 away matches, keeping just four clean sheets. Three of those clean sheets came against teams currently sitting in the bottom seven.
Against top-half opposition away from home, Rovers have lost all 10 matches, with eight of those defeats coming by at least a two-goal margin. Even in their narrow 1-0 defeats to Reading and Bolton, the underlying numbers told a clearer story — for instance, Reading generated 1.42 xG, with 14 shots, six on target, and nine from inside the box.
The Gas have now lost six straight games, and over their last 12, they have managed just two wins and nine defeats, conceding an average of 1.83 goals per game. Across their last 16 away matches, they have kept just three clean sheets — and those came against teams sitting 18th, 23rd, and 24th. Excluding those three games, they have conceded an average of 2.31 goals per away game, while scoring just three goals in the remaining 13.
Bristol Rovers currently sit in the final relegation spot, level on points with Burton — but while Rovers have failed to win in their last six, Burton have picked up three wins from their last five and are edging toward safety.
With Wrexham having scored in all but two home games and Bristol Rovers in terrible form, it is hard to see anything other than a home win. While the straight Wrexham win is short on value, adding over 1.5 match goals — which has landed in eight of Rovers’ 10 away defeats to top-half teams — provides a smart way to back the hosts at a more appealing price.
- Best Bet: Wrexham to win and over 1.5 goals at 1.80 with Boylesports
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