With the season entering a crucial phase, teams across the EFL are battling for promotion, playoff spots, and survival, making every result vital. This weekend, we have three standout fixtures that offer excellent betting opportunities, with key trends pointing towards goals, form sides, and defensive vulnerabilities.
In the Championship, Coventry City host Sunderland in a clash that could have major playoff implications. In League One, Birmingham City look to continue their strong run of form as they travel to Northampton Town. Meanwhile, in League Two, Grimsby Town take on a Salford side that has struggled defensively in recent weeks, setting up a game that could deliver plenty of goal action.
With each fixture offering a compelling angle, let's dive into the best bets for these three crucial midweek matchups.
Northampton Town vs Birmingham City
Birmingham’s defensive record speaks for itself, making them strong candidates for a controlled victory against Northampton, with under 4.5 match goals. No side in the division has conceded fewer goals than the Blues, and their solidity on the road has been particularly impressive. They have picked up nine wins from 16 away fixtures (W9-D4 L3), conceding just 15 times in that period. Only Wycombe and Bolton have managed more goals away from home, emphasizing Birmingham’s ability to maintain defensive stability while posing a goal threat of their own.
Their defensive resilience is highlighted by six clean sheets in their 16 away matches, with only three away defeats. Against teams currently ranked ninth or lower, Birmingham’s away record is formidable, boasting W7-D1-L1. Low-scoring encounters have been a common theme, with nine of their 16 away matches staying under 2.5 goals and only three games producing four or more. Their 3-2 win at Wycombe came in their very first away fixture, while the Shrewsbury loss and 3-1 defeat at Bolton were anomalies in an otherwise solid defensive campaign.
The improvement in their backline is evident, with just 11 goals conceded in their last 12 away games, three of which came at Shrewsbury and three at Bolton. In fact, aside from that 3-1 defeat at Bolton, they had kept six clean sheets in eight away outings. Over their last eight fixtures, Birmingham rank second in the league for xPTS and their defensive metrics are outstanding. They have allowed just 0.57 non-penalty xGA per game in that stretch, the best in the division. No side has given up fewer shots in the box, and they have only conceded three big chances in those eight games.
Northampton, meanwhile, find themselves sitting 14th in the xPTS table over the last eight matches, underlining their inconsistency. They are just eight points clear of the relegation zone and have been unimpressive at home, securing only 22 points at Sixfields—only six teams have fared worse. Their attacking struggles are notable, with just 18 home goals scored all season, a tally only better than Wigan and Mansfield. They have failed to score in 10 of their 17 home games, reinforcing their inability to break down well-organised defences.
Although Northampton have managed four wins in their last eight games, their record against the league’s top sides remains dismal. They have failed to win any of their 10 matches against the top six this season (W0-D4-L6). Their overall record versus the top half stands at W4-D7-L8, which does little to inspire confidence against a Birmingham side operating at a much higher level.
Over the last eight matches, Northampton rank 13th for non-penalty xG ratio, averaging just 0.88 non-penalty xG per game. Only Mansfield and Burton have created fewer big chances in this period, making them unlikely to trouble Birmingham’s rock-solid defence.
With the Blues excelling at keeping games tight and Northampton struggling to create meaningful opportunities, backing Birmingham to win alongside under 4.5 match goals offers a strong bet at 1.83. It is a selection that covers a 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 win, as well as a controlled 2-1 victory, which all align with Birmingham’s defensive trends and Northampton’s lack of cutting edge.
- Best Bet: Birmingham win and under 4.5 goals at 1.83 with Betway
Coventry City vs Sunderland
In the Championship, sixth-placed Coventry City host fourth-placed Sunderland in a crucial clash for both sides. While Sunderland are unlikely to break into the automatic promotion places, currently sitting seven points behind Leeds, they have a comfortable 13-point cushion over fifth-placed West Brom. Coventry, on the other hand, are in a far tighter battle, with just two points separating them from seventh-placed Bristol City in the race for a playoff spot.
Coventry have been prolific at home, scoring in 15 of their 18 matches at the Coventry Building Society Arena, with 73% of these games producing over 2.5 goals. The Sky Blues have thrived under Frank Lampard, securing 12 wins from 21 league matches since his arrival (W12-D3-L4). Their home form has been particularly strong, with a record of W7-D2-L1 under Lampard, the only defeat coming against Leeds. However, defensive frailties have emerged in recent weeks, as they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches. At home, they have managed four clean sheets in 10 games under Lampard, though one of those came against bottom-placed Plymouth.
Over the last eight matches, Coventry rank third for xPTS, having generated 1.5 non-penalty xG per game while allowing 1.22 non-penalty xGA. Defensively, they have conceded an average of one big chance per game in this period, but going forward, they have created 15 big chances—more than any other Championship side in the last eight fixtures.
Sunderland arrive having conceded in each of their last five Championship matches. Their away record stands at W8-D5-L5, with 50% of their away fixtures seeing over 2.5 goals. They have kept six clean sheets and failed to score in five games, though three of those clean sheets have come against teams ranked 19th or lower. Against top-half opposition on the road, Sunderland have managed just one clean sheet—a goalless draw with a Burnley side that struggles for goals but boasts a solid defensive setup.
In the last eight games, Sunderland rank eighth for xPTS and 11th for non-penalty xG ratio. Over this period, they have conceded 1.0 non-penalty xGA while generating 1.28 xG per game, placing them 15th in the league for big chance ratio. In those eight matches, they have conceded eight big chances while creating six of their own.
Given Sunderland’s recent defensive struggles and Coventry’s attacking output, both teams should be expected to find the net. Sunderland have scored in each of their last four away matches, while Coventry have found the net in eight of their 10 home games under Lampard. With both sides showing offensive intent and defensive vulnerabilities, this matchup looks primed for goals at both ends.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.80 at Bet365
Grimsby Town vs Salford
Grimsby’s home matches have been filled with goals this season, averaging 3.06 per game. No side has conceded more goals at home than Grimsby, and they have managed just two clean sheets while failing to score in only four of their home fixtures. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of their games, and both teams to score has hit in 12 of 17 matches at Blundell Park. In fact, both teams have found the net in each of their last five home outings. In two occasions where they failed to find the net came against promotion-chasing Doncaster (3rd) and Notts County (4th). When facing teams currently ranked 10th or lower, Grimsby have scored in all 11 home fixtures while also conceding in 10 of them.
Their defensive issues have persisted since late December, with just one clean sheet in that period—a 2-0 victory over Plymouth. More concerningly, they have kept only three clean sheets in their last 19 League Two fixtures, making them highly vulnerable at the back.
Salford, currently sitting 11th in the table, have also struggled for consistency. They have failed to score in four of their 17 away matches but have kept five clean sheets. However, four of those came against teams ranked 18th or lower, with their only clean sheet against a side 17th or above coming in a goalless draw with Bradford City back in August. Their defensive form has deteriorated significantly, evidenced by their recent 4-0 home thrashing against Chesterfield. That result means Salford have now kept just one clean sheet in their last 12 League Two fixtures, losing 50% of those games.
Earlier in the season, Salford looked like playoff contenders, but their heavy 8-0 defeat to Manchester City in the FA Cup appears to have derailed their momentum. Since that match, they have collected just eight points from a possible 36 and have slipped six points outside the top seven, making a playoff push increasingly unlikely.
With both teams struggling for clean sheets—just two between them in their last combined 26 league matches—yet both managing to score consistently (netting in 19 of those 26 fixtures), this game is primed for goals. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.04, which looks like a solid play. However, a slightly safer angle is backing over 2.25 goals at 1.75 with Bet365. This bet ensures a half-stake refund if there are only two goals in the game, making it a more cautious yet still valuable approach.
- Best Bet: Over 2.25 goals at 1.75 with Bet365
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