As we enter the final stretch of the EFL season, the stakes could not be higher — and this weekend’s fixtures offer plenty of value from a betting perspective. Whether it's teams chasing promotion, battling to avoid the drop, or simply trying to finish the campaign on a high, there’s no shortage of motivation across the board.
We have picked out three standout matchups that could deliver goals, drama, and crucial points: Charlton take on Lincoln as the hosts look to gate crash the top two, Plymouth host Norwich in a must-win game for both ends of the Championship table, and QPR face Cardiff in a high-stakes relegation six-pointer at Loftus Road. Here's where the numbers, form, and situational edge all point to opportunity.
Charlton vs Lincoln City
Charlton are in outstanding form. Over the last 10 games, only Birmingham have picked up more points, and only Wycombe have conceded fewer goals. Their home form has been exceptional too — in their last five matches at The Valley, no team has earned more points, scored more goals, or conceded fewer. Their overall home record stands at W13-D5-L2, with 11 clean sheets and only two matches where they failed to score. Across their last 15 home games, they have gone W10-D4-L1, conceding just nine goals. That sole defeat came against Crawley, who scored twice from an xG of just 0.46, including a first-half goal with an xG of just 0.04. Charlton have now won eight consecutive home games, scoring 17 and conceding only two during that run. They rank third in the league for home xPTS, and their defensive numbers are elite — over the last eight games, they have allowed only 0.79 non-penalty xGA and just 0.41 xGA from open play. In their last seven home matches, that drops even further to an average of just 0.30 xGA, and across the last 11 they’ve allowed just 1.45 shots on target per game.
Lincoln, in contrast, have struggled away from home. Their road record stands at W5-D6-L9, conceding an average of 1.35 goals per game. They Imps have won just twice in their last 16 away outings — those wins coming against Mansfield and Northampton, who sit 17th and 19th respectively. Three of their five away victories came before the end of September. Over their last 16 away games, only Bristol Rovers have picked up fewer points, only six sides have scored fewer, and just seven have conceded more. They have failed to score in seven of their 20 away matches, though they have managed five clean sheets. Against top six sides on the road, they have lost all four encounters without scoring and conceding six in total. They have not beaten a single top-half team away from home all season.
There are signs of underlying improvement, with Lincoln ranking fourth for xPTS and third for non-penalty xG ratio over the last eight games. Over their last seven away matches, they have conceded an average of 1.24 xGA, allowed 10.4 shots, and faced 3.42 shots on target. Performances have picked up, but the results simply have not followed — and with this now a sizable sample, it appears to be more than just bad luck. Importantly, they have still not kept a clean sheet away from home against any side currently sitting in the top half.
- Best Bet: Charlton to win at 1.80 with William Hill
QPR vs Cardiff City
QPR come into this one with a record of W11-D12-L16, with their matches averaging 2.51 goals per game. They are without a win in their last six outings and have only managed two wins from their last eleven (W2-D1-L8). At Loftus Road, their home record stands at W7-D6-L6, but it’s worth noting they didn’t win any of their opening nine home fixtures. Since then, though, they have turned things around, winning seven of their last ten on home soil (W7-D1-L2), with the only setbacks being a loss to Sheffield United and a draw with Leeds.
The Super Hoops have only failed to score in two home matches all season, registering goals in 11 of their last 12 at Loftus Road, but clean sheets have been rare – just four at home and only one in their last eleven overall. The only two teams they failed to score against at home were Sunderland (currently 4th) and Sheffield Wednesday. Defensively, they have conceded in seven of their last eight at home, and only five sides have taken fewer points on their own patch. While sitting 15th in the table, they are still only five points above the drop, so not entirely out of danger. Both teams have scored in four of QPR’s last five overall, and only Norwich have seen more both teams to score outcomes at home than QPR, with 14 of 19 home matches seeing both teams find the net.
As for Cardiff, they failed to win any of their opening seven games, losing six of those. Their overall record now stands at W9-D13-L17, with their matches averaging 1.62 goals conceded per game. The Bluebirds have only managed six clean sheets all season – just one of those away from home – and have failed to score in five of their 19 away fixtures, though three of those blanks came against sides in the top six. That said, they have scored in 17 of their last 18 games and conceded in 25 of their last 27. Only West Brom have had more both teams to score results in away games than Cardiff, who have seen both teams score in 14 of 19 on the road.
Combined, QPR’s 19 home games and Cardiff’s 19 away games have produced 28 both teams to score outcomes from 38 matches – a rate of 73%, which implies true odds of around 1.37. Yet the market currently offers 2.0 on both teams to score, suggesting the bookies rate it as a 50% chance – a significant value discrepancy.
- Best Bet: Both team to score at 2.0 at Betfred
Plymouth Argyle vs Norwich City
Plymouth are bottom of the table, seven points from safety, and much of that comes down to their defensive frailties. At Home Park, their matches average a huge 3.47 goals – the second highest in the Championship – and they’ve conceded in 18 of 19 home games. The only sides to keep clean sheets there all seasons have been Sheffield Wednesday and Burnley, both well-organised teams defensively. For the most part, Plymouth’s games are open and chaotic.
They’ve scored in 15 of those 19 home matches, including six of eight against top-half teams, and under Milen Muslic they’ve become a bit more robust without losing their attacking edge. They've found the net in 10 of 14 games since he took charge. However, their defensive numbers remain among the worst in the league — they’ve allowed the highest non-penalty xGA over the last 12 games, conceded more big chances than anyone in the past eight, and have the worst xGA from set pieces in that same spell. Just one clean sheet in their last 14 speaks for itself.
Norwich, meanwhile, have the firepower to take advantage. With Josh Sargent and Borja Sainz – the league’s leading scorer – in attack, they’ve scored in 10 of their last 11 games, and 11 of their last 14 away from home. They absolutely need three points to stay in the playoff picture, sitting 10th and five points off sixth with tough games against Sunderland and Burnley to come. Expect them to go for it.
But Norwich are not exactly watertight either. They have kept just four clean sheets away all season, with only one since August. They have conceded in 12 of their last 14 matches and rank among the worst in the league for xGA from set pieces over the last eight games.
With Plymouth’s leaky defence and decent home goal return, and Norwich’s attacking intent combined with their own defensive issues, this game feels primed for goals. Both teams have a lot riding on it and are likely to go for the win — over 2.5 goals looks like a strong play.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.91 with Bet365
Further Reading
- Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction and Betting Tips
- Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction and Betting Tips
- Tottenham Hotspur vs Southampton Prediction and Betting Tips
- Fulham vs Liverpool Prediction and Betting Tips
- Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction and Betting Tips
GambleAware