Among the most intriguing fixtures to cover in this week's EFL betting tips, Stockport County take on a struggling Exeter City side in League Two, Accrington Stanley face Bromley in what promises to be a goal-filled clash, and an out-of-form Barrow host an in-form MK Dons in League Two.
Each of these games offers unique betting angles, from Stockport's defensive resilience and Exeter's struggles on the road to Accrington's goal-heavy form and MK Dons' resurgence under new management. In this article, we’ll break down the stats, trends, and best bets to help you find value and make the most of this weekend’s EFL action.
Stockport County vs Exeter City
Exeter come into this match with a record of W7-D3-L7, averaging just 1.94 match total goals per game. They have scored only 16 goals in 17 matches and are struggling for form, with no wins in their last four games and just one victory in their last seven. During that stretch, they have managed just four goals, two of which came at home in a 2-2 draw against Wycombe after surrendering a 2-0 lead.
On the road, Exeter have a record of W3-D1-L4, scoring only seven goals and failing to find the net in their last two away games (a 3-0 loss at Wrexham and a 2-0 defeat at Huddersfield). Currently sitting 11th in the league, 19 of their 24 points have come against teams in 12th place or below. Against teams above them, Exeter have a poor record of W1-D2-L4, scoring just once across those seven matches.
Stockport, meanwhile, sit in a far stronger position. With 30 points from 18 matches (W8-D6-L4), they are among the league’s most consistent teams. Only Peterborough and Wycombe have scored more goals this season. At home, Stockport are solid, with W5-D2-L2.
They had won their last three matches without conceding a goal, before their 2-0 defeat at Birmingham on Wednesday night. Their other defeats this season came against Wycombe (the league leaders), Lincoln (13th), and an unexpected 4-1 home loss to bottom-placed Leyton Orient. Notably, Stockport responded to their 5-0 loss to Wycombe with an emphatic 5-0 victory over Bolton.
Exeter’s recent form and metrics do not inspire confidence. They rank bottom for xPTS over the last four matches and 19th over the last eight. In contrast, Stockport sit second for xPTS over both periods.
Exeter have averaged just 0.67 non-penalty xG over their last eight games, whilst Stockport have given up just 0.65 non-penalty xGA, highlighting Stockport’s defensive strength. At home, Stockport rank first for xPTS, while Exeter sit 18th for away xPTS.
Even with Stockport’s midweek fixture against Birmingham, they should have too much quality for an Exeter side struggling for form. The home win is too short to back outright, but Stockport on a -0.75 Asian handicap at 1.9 with Unibet offers value.
- Best Bet: Stockport -0.75AH at 1.9 with Bet365
Accrington Stanley vs Bromley
Accrington Stanley have been involved in high scoring matches this season, with their 17 games producing 55 goals, an average of 3.2 per game. They have found the net in 14 of those matches and conceded in 14 as well, with both teams scoring in 12 games and over 2.5 goals also landing in 12. Their recent form has followed this trend, with results of 2-2, 2-2, and 5-2 in their last three games.
At home, matches are slightly tighter, averaging 2.63 goals per game. Stanley have scored in six of their eight home fixtures and conceded in six as well. Despite this, their underlying numbers are strong, registering 1.25 xG per match at home while conceding just 0.66 xGA. Overall, Accrington rank 10th for xPTS and non-penalty xG ratio.
Bromley come into the match with a record of W3-D8-L5, averaging 2.5 match goals per game. They have scored in 14 of their 16 games this season but have struggled defensively, keeping just four clean sheets—two of which came in their opening two matches. Since then, they have managed just two clean sheets in 14 games, with both teams scoring in 11 of 16 matches, including their last four.
Bromley’s defensive frailties are evident, as only three teams concede more shots on target and just one concedes more shots in the box on the road. Over their last four matches, Bromley rank 14th for xPTS, while Accrington rank sixth. During this period, Stanley have averaged 1.24 xG, compared to Bromley’s 0.84 xG, while Bromley have conceded 1.25 xGA—the third highest in the league.
Combining both teams’ records, both teams have scored in 23 of their 33 fixtures this season (70%), which can be backed at 1.7 (implied probability of 58%). With just seven clean sheets between them, goals look likely. Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 with Bet365 offers solid value in a game that should see plenty of action.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 with Bet365
Barrow vs MK Dons
Barrow have been struggling for form, with just five wins in their last 20 matches across all competitions and six victories from 18 league games this season (W6- D5- L7). After a bright start—winning five of their first seven matches—they have drastically fallen off, failing to win in their last eight and securing just one victory in their last 11.
Barrow topped the table after seven games with 16 points, but since then, they have picked up just seven points from their next 11 matches, slipping to 13th. Unsurprisingly, they rank 23rd for xPTS over their last four games and 20th over the last eight, with a xG ratio of just 0.68 during that period.
While their defence remains decent, conceding only 0.9 xGA per match over their last eight fixtures, their attack has struggled. Despite this poor run, they have drawn four of their last six matches, whilst their home record is solid (W4-D3-L2), but they have failed to win in their last four home games.
MK Dons, in contrast, are finding their rhythm. After just two wins from their first eight matches, the side widely tipped for promotion has hit form under Scott Lindsey, who replaced Mike Williamson in September. Since Lindsey’s appointment, MK Dons boast a record of W7-D2-L1, with their only loss coming against league leaders Port Vale.
They have now won six consecutive games, scoring three or more goals in five of those and two or more in all six victories. Over the last four matches, MK Dons rank fourth for xPTS, a position they also hold over the last eight games. During this period, they have averaged 1.14 xG while conceding just 0.74 xGA.
These are two teams moving in opposite directions. Barrow’s early-season promise has faded, while MK Dons look like genuine promotion contenders under Lindsey. Barrow played midweek, drawing 1-1 at Bradford, while MK Dons beat Chesterfield 3-0 at home. With Barrow winless in their last eight league games, backing MK Dons on a +0.25 Asian handicap at 1.80 offers value, as the only way this bet loses is if Barrow win.
- Best Bet: MK Dons +0.25AH at 1.80 with 888 Sport
Upcoming match previews & tips
- Sat 12:30 Everton v Liverpool
- Sat 15:00 Aston Villa vs Southampton
- Sat 15:00 Brentford vs Newcastle United
- Sat 15:00 Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
- Sat 15:15 Real Betis vs Barcelona
- Sat 17:00 Juventus vs Bologna
- Sat 17:30 Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest
- Sat 17:30 Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
- Sat 20:00 Girona vs Real Madrid
- Premier League relegation odds and prediction: Wolves price is a steal for punters
- European BTTS Tips: French goals fancied in 7/2 treble
- Desmond’s Goals Tips: BTTS, To Score 2+, Over 2.5 Goals and 45/1 Goals Acca Tips
- FIFA Club World Cup winner odds and prediction: Struggling heavyweights emerge as early favourites
In December 2020 we sadly 
