This weekend's EFL action serves up three fascinating fixtures that offer plenty of potential for betting value for punters.
Exeter host Blackpool in a clash that promises goals, with both sides showing defensive vulnerabilities but attacking intent. Over at Loftus Road, Queens Park Rangers take on Sheffield Wednesday in what could be a crucial matchup for teams vying for form and consistency as they push up the table. Meanwhile, Leyton Orient welcome Reading in a game where the hosts look to continue their strong run of form against an inconsistent Reading side.
From high-scoring encounters to promotion battles and tight defensive contests, these fixtures offer a variety of opportunities for bettors to find value. This article dives into the key stats, trends, and form to uncover the best bets for these three exciting matchups. Let’s explore the action and make some winning predictions!
Exeter vs Blackpool
Exeter have been struggling for consistency recently, with just two wins in their last 10 matches—one of which was against Burton, who sit 23rd in the table. Defensively, Exeter have kept only nine clean sheets in their 26 league fixtures, but they have been relatively consistent in front of goal, failing to score in just seven games all season. At home, they have only drawn a blank twice—against Birmingham City and Lincoln—meaning they’ve found the net in 11 of their 13 home matches.
Their home form has been inconsistent, with a record of W5-D3-L5 and matches averaging 2.69 goals per game. Both teams have scored in their last five home fixtures, and Exeter have not kept a clean sheet at home since mid-November.
Statistically, Exeter sit bottom for xPTS over the last four matches and 21st over the last eight. At home, they have averaged 1.04 xG per match while allowing 1.39 xGA. Only three teams in the division concede more shots inside the box during home matches. Across their last eight games, Exeter have conceded an average of 1.21 non-penalty xGA.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have not won a match since mid-November, drawing five of their last six fixtures. On the road, they have a mixed record of W8-D3-L9, with their matches averaging 2.7 goals. The Tangerines have only failed to score in six games all season and just three away matches.
However, defensive solidity has been an issue, with just four clean sheets in 14 away fixtures. Recently, they drew 0-0 at Birmingham in a match where they were unlucky not to score, registering 0.89 xG and outshooting Birmingham 9-6, although they had one fewer shot on target (4-3).
Despite their poor run of form, Blackpool rank fourth for xPTS over the last eight matches, with a solid non-penalty xG of 1.23 and a strong defensive xGA of 0.82. Both teams to score has landed in eight of their 14 away matches this season, and they have scored in six of their last seven on the road.
These two sides are separated by just one point in the league, sitting 14th and 15th, with both still keeping an eye on the relegation zone. Blackpool are 10 points clear of fourth-bottom Crawley Town, while Exeter are 11 points behind the playoff positions. Both teams need an excellent second half of the season to climb the table.
With Exeter’s last five home matches producing 22 goals—an average of 4.4 per game—and a huge turnaround in attacking intent compared to the 1.63 goal average in their previous eight home games, this match promises plenty of goal-mouth action. Both teams should look to attack, and with the hosts averaging 2.2 goals scored across their last five home fixtures, goals for both sides seem highly likely.
- Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.80 with
Queens Park Rangers vs Sheffield Wednesday
Queens Park Rangers are one of the in-form teams in the Championship, having turned their season around after a tough start. Following a poor run where they managed just one win in their opening 16 games, Rangers have now won eight of their last 13 matches, losing just once during this impressive spell.
At Loftus Road, they have been particularly strong, winning their last five home games and scoring at least twice in all of them. However, defensive frailties remain, with just three clean sheets at home this season. Both teams have scored in 11 of their 14 home matches, and over 2.5 goals have landed in nine of those games.
Over their last eight matches, QPR rank seventh for xPTS and 10th for home xPTS across the season. At home, they average 1.14 xG per game while conceding 0.97 xGA. Offensively, they have been productive, registering the fourth-most shots inside the box and ranking among the top four for shots on target at home in the league.
They face a Sheffield Wednesday side also looking to push into the playoff places, sitting just five points behind sixth-placed Blackburn. However, the Owls have struggled defensively, with only three sides conceding more goals in the Championship this season. They have kept just two clean sheets on the road, against Bristol City and a struggling Hull side.
Wednesday’s attack, however, has been more consistent. After failing to score in three of their first four away games, they have since found the net in seven of their last nine away matches. Their only blanks in that run came in a 3-0 defeat at Leeds and a narrow 1-0 loss to Sheffield United—both sides with excellent home records and defensive stability.
On the road, Wednesday are averaging 1.05 xG per match, scoring an average of 1.23 goals per game, but conceding 1.77 goals on average, with an xGA of 1.65—the fourth-highest in the league.
Recently, Wednesday have scored in 14 of their last 17 league matches and should have enough firepower to trouble Rangers defence at Loftus Road. Over their last four games, QPR have conceded a non-penalty xGA of 1.45, while Wednesday have averaged 1.46 non-penalty xG in the same period. In fact, Wednesday’s matches over the last four games have averaged 3.32 xG—more than any other team in the Championship during that time.
Between these two sides, clean sheets have been rare. Across their respective 27 home and away matches, there have been just five clean sheets combined. Both teams have failed to score in only six of those games. With both sides pushing for the playoffs and defensive vulnerabilities on display, this match is likely to deliver goals at both ends.
- Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 2.02
Leyton Orient vs Reading
Leyton Orient are one of the form teams in League One, with only Birmingham collecting more points over the last 10 matches. Over their last five games, no team has earned more points than the O's, as they continue a remarkable turnaround this season. After failing to win any of their opening four matches and securing just two wins in their first 11, Leyton Orient were sitting 17th in the table after 10 games, only one point above the relegation zone.
Since then, Orient have been on an incredible run, winning nine of their last 14 matches and losing just twice. Both defeats came against strong opposition—Wycombe (2nd) and Huddersfield (4th). At home, they struggled early in the season, failing to win any of their first five matches, though that stretch included games against Birmingham, Bolton and Wrexham.
Since then, Orient have turned their home form around, winning six of their next eight matches and conceding just two goals—a 2-0 defeat to Huddersfield. Impressively, they have kept seven clean sheets in their last eight home games. Over the last eight matches, Orient sit 1st for xPTS and 2nd in non-penalty xG ratio.
Reading make the trip to Orient this weekend, and their season has been a story of inconsistency. While they’ve managed 12 wins in their 25 games, they have also lost eight, with a stark contrast between their home and away form. Reading have been excellent at home, winning nine of 12 matches, but their away record has been far weaker, with just three wins on the road. Those victories came against Cambridge and Peterborough, both in the bottom six, and Exeter, who are 14th. Reading have failed to win any away matches against teams in the top half of the table.
Statistically, Reading rank 21st for away xPTS, 22nd for xG ratio, and 17th for shots in the box ratio. Their inconsistency has been compounded by managerial changes. Former boss Ruben Selles left in December after doing an admirable job under difficult circumstances, departing to take charge of Championship side Hull City. Since then, Noel Hunt, previously the club’s U21 manager, has taken over, though he lacks significant experience at this level.
Hunt has now overseen eight matches, and during this period, the Royals rank 21st for xPTS. The Royals have a record of W3-D2-L3 under Hunt, with just one away win—a 3-1 victory at Cambridge. Despite their struggles, Reading’s individual quality could still cause problems for Orient, though their poor away form and lack of defensive stability make them clear underdogs in this matchup.
With Orient’s strong home form and Reading’s continued issues on the road, the hosts look well-positioned to secure another three points as they push toward the top of the table.
- Best Bet: Leyton Orient win and under 4.5 goals at 2.05 with Coral
Upcoming match previews and betting tips
- European BTTS Tips: Back goals to rain in the French Riviera
- Desmond’s Goals Tips: BTTS, To Score 2+, Over 2.5 Goals and 42/1 Goals Acca Tips
- Friday’s Goals Accumulator Tips: Blades to bring home 6/1 Acca
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