British tennis fans will be eagerly watching the ATP Rome Masters on Saturday afternoon, when one of their brightest young stars takes to the stage.
Can Jack Draper upset defending champion Daniil Medvedev? We dive deep into the nitty gritty of this match-up and deliver our Draper vs Medvedev prediction and betting tips.
Medvedev is a self-proclaimed hard-court specialist, and yet, the Russian somehow went all the way and won this event in 2023. Now, as defending champion, the 28-year-old has a challenging opening match against big-hitting Draper.
He comes to Rome off the back of some mixed form–an early exit in Monte-Carlo, followed by a quarter-final retirement in Madrid.
Draper, on the other hand, arrived in Rome with few recent results of note. He put that behind him and powered past Borna Coric in his opening round. On his day, the Brit is capable of defeating the game’s best.
The question is: will this be Draper’s day? Or will Medvedev show that his achievements this time last year were no fluke?
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How the Bookies View It: Closer Than Expected
Considering Medvedev is No. 4 in the world and Draper is sitting at No. 40, bookmakers actually have this match up quite close. The Russian does lead in outright betting, but the margin is only 4/6 to 6/5. Set betting has Medvedev winning in two at 3/2 as the most likely outcome.
Recent Head-to-Head: First Meeting
These two have not met before on the ATP Tour.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
One of the big question marks hovering over this match is Medvedev’s physical condition. The Russian withdrew from his quarter-final clash with Jiri Lehecka in Madrid due to a shoulder injury. Has he managed to bounce back to full strength in the past week?
Draper was brilliant on serve against Coric in his 7-5, 6-1 victory. The 22-year-old made eight aces, landed 78 percent of first serves and won 92 percent of points. Across the one hour, 37 minute match, he did not face a single break point.
He’ll be looking to bring a similar level against Medvedev if he’s to claim his first top 10 victory since Felix Auger-Aliassime in August 2022.
More than half of Draper’s matches this year have gone to a deciding set. However, the Brit’s strike rate in final sets isn’t great, with seven of his nine losses this year coming by way of a third-set loss.
Draper vs Medvedev Betting Tips & Predictions
Draper brought a high level against Coric, and a question mark hangs over Medvedev in Rome. We say the No 2 seed will get the job done, but it could be tough for a while.
- Medvedev to win @ 4/6
- Medvedev to win 2-1 @ 3/1
These two will be on Centre Court third this Saturday, after Rafael Nadal and Hubert Hurkacz. Expect for the match to be around 3pm to 4pm, so get your bets in before then.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
