The shock exit of Carlos Alcaraz from the US Open opens up opportunity in the draw for a raft of players who can make career-best Grand Slam runs in New York. Two of those hoping to capitalise on the Spaniard’s downfall are Alex de Minaur and Dan Evans, who clash on day six of the US Open in an intriguing third-round encounter.
We break down all there is to know about this men’s singles match, looking at the latest odds to deliver our De Minaur vs Evans betting tips and predictions.
Contents
Player form: There are questions
Big picture, De Minaur comes into this match in far better form than Evans. However, it’s not quite so clear cut.
While the Aussie is having a career-best year (top 10 for the first time, two titles, wins over Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev), he did recently suffer a hip injury at Wimbledon. This isn’t great news, as De Minaur’s game is based around mobility, and these kind of issues often linger.
He has looked sharp so far though, dropping just the one set in his opening two matches.
By comparison, Evans is having a horrific season. He’s barely been able to buy a win, losing 11 of his last 12 ATP-level matches coming into the US Open.
So far in New York, he’s turned that around. He did so by winning the longest-ever match at the US Open, going the better part of six hours against Karen Khachanov in the first round. Evans then raced through his second-round clash in straight sets, beating Mariano Navone in just the Argentine’s sixth career hard-court match.
How the bookies view it: De Minaur well ahead
Bookmaker Betfred has a clear favourite in this match: De Minaur, by a wide margin. The Aussie pays 1/6 to win, while Evans is a long-shot at 4/1. The odds don’t get any better the deeper we dive either, with De Minaur given a -6.5 handicap at 4/5 and set betting favouring him 3-0 at 6/5
Recent head-to-head: Evans has dominated
Surprisingly, Evans has had the better of De Minaur in the past, with the world No.184 leading the pair’s head-to-head 3-0. Evans’ wins came in 2019, 2020 and 2023, all of which were tight matches.
Anything else catch the eye?
The big factors in this match are Evans’ long match earlier in the week and De Minaur’s hip injury. Either could sway the result.
Outside of these, De Minaur is the clear favourite because of how much his tennis has improved since the two last met. He’s a much better finisher now, and should have no issues moving a fatigued Evans around the court to exploit his weaknesses.
De Minaur vs Evans betting tips & predictions
We have two bets here: conservative and mildly risky. The first is that this match ends in under 34.5 games, which allows for either player to win in the event that De Minaur’s hip hampers him. The second is for De Minaur to win 3-0, which is the most likely scenario, should the Aussie have all his faculties on court.
- Total games over 34.5 @ 5/6
- De Minaur to win 3-0 @ 6/5
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
