Winter is coming, and so is the ceremony for the 2025 Ballon d'Or. Thanks to an ACL injury, Rodri will not be defending his crown this year and with Messi and Ronaldo effectively now out of the picture, we should get a fresh winner this winter.
Here is the current breakdown of odds, and the market-average prices available.
Ballon d’Or 2025 winner odds
| Ousmane Dembele |
1/7 |
| Lamine Yamal |
5/1 |
| Raphinha |
16/1 |
| Mo Salah |
50/1 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
50/1 |
| Cole Palmer |
50/1 |
| Nuno Mendes |
66/1 |
| Achraf Hakimi |
66/1 |
| Kylian Mbappe |
66/1 |
| Desire Doue |
100/1 |
As can be seen here, the two main contenders for the UEFA Champions League (UCL) dominate, and the further these clubs get in the competition, the shorter these odds will become. Now for a deeper dive into the frontrunners’ chances…
The top three contenders
Ousmane Dembele
So often over the past couple of decades, this award has been handed out to the best player of the team that won the most recent edition of the Champions League. This year, that man is Ousmane Dembele.
The Frenchman became the player he was always meant to be last season, taking a leading role at PSG as they romped towards their first-ever Champions League triumph.
Dembele's performances for PSG last season have already made him a legend at the club, but now he is line to be immortalised in football history, too. At this point, it would be a huge shock if the Frenchman didn't pick up the award at the end of the year.
Lamine Yamal
Last year's Golden Boy award winner is almost certainly going to pick the Ballon d'Or up one day, but it's unlikely to be in 2025.
The teenager did have a stunning season last season, though, and it would be very much in the conversation had Barcelona not capitulated in their Champions League semi-final against Inter Milan.
Across all competitions, Yamal contributed 18 goals and 25 assists as Barcelona were crowned La Liga champions. If they can push on one step further this season and win the Champions League, then Yamal will be the frontrunner for the 2026 award.
Raphinha
If you think Yamal's numbers last season were impressive, then wait until you hear about what his teammate, Raphinha, managed to rack up.
The former Leeds man contributed more than 50 goals and assists in all competitions and shone in the Champions League, which meant he was the favourite to win the Ballon d'Or when we reached the semi-final stage of the tournament.
Unfortunately for him, Barcelona failed to win their semi-final, which has left Raphinha almost out of the running for the award. A place on the podium should be guaranteed, though.
Lifelong Ipswich Town supporter who recently graduated from Durham University in French and German. Have developed a passion for European football based on my links abroad and am an avid supporter of Werder Bremen and Auxerre. Joined the MFT team in October 2024 and looking to take my first steps into the world of football journalism.
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