No sooner had Rodri taken the Ballon d’Or award on Monday night, bets started coming in for the next edition. Here, we’ll analyse the Ballon d’Or 2025 winner odds, who the main favourites are and what each frontrunner will have to do to clinch it.
Firstly, here’s the current breakdown of odds, and the market-average prices available.
Ballon d’Or 2025 winner odds
| Vinicius Jr |
7/2 |
| Erling Haaland |
9/2 |
| Kylian Mbappe |
5/1 |
| Lamine Yamal |
7/1 |
| Jude Bellingham |
10/1 |
| Robert Lewandowski |
12/1 |
| Harry Kane |
16/1 |
| Mohamed Salah |
25/1 |
| Cole Palmer |
25/1 |
| Phil Foden |
28/1 |
As can be seen here, the two main contenders for the UEFA Champions League (UCL) dominate, and the further these clubs get in the competition, the shorter these odds will become. Now for a deeper dive into the frontrunners’ chances…
Selections to watch
Vinicius Junior
With Rodri set to spend the remainder of 2024/25 on the treatment table, it will take a miracle for him to defend the title. And with Real Madrid starting decently in the UCL – and ‘Vini’ providing the highlight so far with a hat-trick vs Dortmund – he seems a sensible pick at this point.
Something that could still work against him and lengthen his odds for a while is the element of player conduct – which is itself a factor when it comes to garnering those all-important votes – given that he refused to go to the ceremony after privately learning the result. That said, there is still a whole year ahead of him, so any ill feeling towards him from those connected to the ceremony will likely have dissipated by then.
Yesterday’s events will not have made people forget his incredible performances this season, with Vinicius’ most recent hat-trick coming in a 5-2 demolition of Dortmund in the UCL. As proven by the 2023 and 2022 competitions, winning the UCL goes a long way to improving a player’s chances of securing a Ballon d’Or.
Indeed, Karim Benzema took home the 2022 trophy after winning the competition that year, and a lot of people would argue that Lionel Messi only pipped 2022/23 UCL winner Erling Haaland to the trophy due to his World Cup exploits.
If Los Blancos can extend their winning record in the tournament, there is no reason why Vinicius cannot secure his first Ballon d’Or in 2025. And so, although it may not have gone quite as planned for the Brazilian last night, he is still a clear and obvious favourite for the 2025 Ballon d’Or.
Erling Haaland
Hot on Vinicius’ heels, Haaland is priced at 9/2 for the accolade. The Norwegian marksman has been in fine form with 14 goals in all competitions this season, as Manchester City sit third in the UCL table without conceding a goal.
Though Lionel Messi got the better of him in 2023, Haaland’s goal-scoring prowess should go a long way to giving him another chance to get his hands on his first Ballon d’Or. He provides excellent value if Manchester City are able to continue their present form in the UCL.
Kylian Mbappe
Another recent addition to the Bernabeu, it would be unwise to discount Kylian Mbappe. Although he has struggled somewhat to truly establish himself in Madrid so far, supporters and players alike are still aware of the incredible quality he possesses.
Surprisingly, Mbappe is still yet to secure a Ballon d’Or for his trophy cabinet, despite the hype surrounding him when he first made his mark at Monaco. Perhaps his best shot came in 2018 when he won the World Cup as a teenager, but the award instead went to Luka Modric.
A move away from PSG should have helped his chances however, especially as he has since joined the record UCL winners. In a year where there will be no World Cup or Euros, performances in this competition will be even more vital than usual for his chances.
Lamine Yamal
Although still too young for the award this season, last night’s runaway ‘Golden Boy’ award winner Yamal is a tempting prospect for next season’s Ballon d’Or after he comes of age, with bookies placing him at 7/1. Barcelona’s 4-0 destruction of Madrid at the weekend will have helped bolster his chances, as the teenage sensation secured his fifth league goal of the season in a fantastic performance for the Blaugrana.
Although it is difficult to say whether Barcelona will be able to go all the way and win the UCL, their league form has been nothing short of electric, as they have already established a six-point gap between themselves and closest rivals Real Madrid.
If they can replicate this form to win what could be their first UCL (UCL) and La Liga double in a decade, there is no question that the 17-year old will become the favourite for the award. Barca currently have two wins from their first three games in the competition, and will be looking to extend this against Red Star Belgrade next week.
Lifelong Ipswich Town supporter who recently graduated from Durham University in French and German. Have developed a passion for European football based on my links abroad and am an avid supporter of Werder Bremen and Auxerre. Joined the MFT team in October 2024 and looking to take my first steps into the world of football journalism.
