It’s the match we’ve all been waiting for. Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner in the French Open semi-finals. Who prevails in this blockbusting encounter? Read on for our Alcaraz vs Sinner prediction and betting tips.
Heading into Roland-Garros, Alcaraz and Sinner were the bookies’ top two favourites to win the tournament. Now, they meet in the semi-finals for their ninth clash overall.
Both were carrying injuries ahead of the year’s second Grand Slam, and didn’t have too much preparation on clay. However, their Sunshine Doubles were as good as can be, with Alcaraz winning Indian Wells and Sinner claiming Miami the next week.
Few would dispute that this is a match between the No. 1 and No. 2 players in the world right now. Technically Novak Djokovic is sandwiched between the two in the rankings (until Monday, when Sinner moves to No. 1). However, with the Serbian’s recent knee injury and general lack of form in 2024, these are the two players tennis fans want to see compete.
It’s Wimbledon champion vs Australian Open champion. Second seed vs third seed. Alcaraz vs Sinner. Tennis doesn’t get any better than this!
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How the Bookies View It: Edge to Alcaraz
Bookmaker bet365 has this clash as tight as can be, but gives the edge to Alcaraz. The Spaniard is at 4/7 to win, while Sinner trails on 11/8. Set betting can’t decide between Alcaraz in three or four, with each of these outcomes paying 3/1. A -2.5 handicap is given to the third seed, returning 5/6 as well.
Recent Head-to-Head: Can’t Split ‘Em
Alcaraz and Sinner have played eight times so far on the ATP Tour, sharing their meetings 4-4. Alcaraz won their most recent clash–just a few months ago in Indian Wells–coming from behind to win 1-6, 6-3, 6-2. However, Sinner had won the previous two clashes. The pair have met just once on clay, in 2022 where Sinner won in three sets.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
It’s a widely held belief that Sinner matches up well with Alcaraz. This is for a few reasons. Firstly, just looking at their head-to-head, the fact that it’s 4-4 leans in Sinner’s favour. For the majority of their rivalry, Alcaraz has been the better player, in terms of ranking and results.
Only in the past nine months has Sinner come into his own and raced up the ATP rankings. The fact that he was able to keep pace with Alcaraz even before these improvements says something.
However, the surface does mitigate some of Sinner’s apparent advantage. The Italian likes to take the ball early and hit hard, taking time away from Alcaraz’s weapons. On clay, the surface gives Alcaraz time back, making it much harder for Sinner to win this way.
Also, in their most recent clash, Alcaraz displayed his more dynamic, all-court tennis. This willingness to adapt and win in different ways is crucial, giving Alcaraz more paths to victory in this match.
Alcaraz vs Sinner Betting Tips & Predictions
Our Alcaraz vs Sinner prediction is that this will be one of the best matches of the year. The best bet is to wager on games and sets, as we see the actual winner being something of a coin toss.
- Total games over 39.5 @ 10/11
- Five sets total @ 2/1
Alcaraz and Sinner play first on Centre Court this Friday afternoon in Paris, not before 2:30pm local time.
In December 2020 we sadly 
