THE MASTERS is the first Major of the year and for me it signifies the beginning of the season.
Now is the time to dust off the clubs and get out on the course – it's spring after all.
This is the 82nd year the Masters has taken place at the magnificent Augusta National and the top players will all once again be there to try to win the prestigious Green Jacket.
Being the only Major that is played on the same course gives the Masters that bit of extra meaning. The beautifully-manicured course and the tradition of the Green Jacket just help to make it something special.
Since 1949 tradition states the jacket be presented to every winner by the previous winner inside the Butler Cabin.
With six triumphs the great Jack Nicklaus has won the Green Jacket more than any other player, the last being in 1986.
It was once said if you birdie all the par fives at Augusta you will be there or thereabouts come Sunday evening. Also putting is important on the fast Augusta greens so the stats I’m looking at are Par 5s: birdie or better, Strokes gained: Putting and Putting Average.
Course: Augusta National: 7435 yards, Par 72.
With Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Bubba Watson, Justin Thomas, Phil Mickelson, Paul Casey and Rory McIlroy all winning since January it could turn out to be a hell of a shootout come Sunday.
All eight of the above will be classed as contenders along with Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia and Tiger Woods. In fact anyone from the top 25-30 in the betting are in with a chance.
Dustin Johnson is an obvious choice as he leads the stats in Par 5s: Birdie or Better, Putting Average and is 14th in SG:Putting. A lot of people will be on Tiger’s tail but I don’t think he’s done enough to be one of the favourites.
Yes, it’s a course he loves and we know how well he plays on it but there are just too many younger and fitter guys out there who are capable of winning at Augusta.
Justin Rose
I backed Rose last year and he did everything right until the first extra play-off hole when he went into the trees. If you were being picky you could say missed putts on the 13th and the 18th on the Sunday cost him the title but to be fair Garcia also missed a couple of makeable putts in the last few holes.
Rose has been playing well again this season, winning the WGC-HSBC and four top 10s from five outings.
Sometimes you get the impression he isn’t really pushing himself when he gets into contention but that’s just his way. He’s steady and gradually chases down the leaders and when he gets to the front he’s not the easiest to dislodge. Definitely worth taking a chance on.
- Par 5s: Birdie or Better: 50.0% (25th). Strokes Gained: Putting: 1.022 (5th). Putting Average: 1.712 (7th)
Alex Noren
I have already put my money on super Swede Noren. He has come to the attention of the folks the other side of the Atlantic with some really good results this season.
He had a T2 at the Farmers, third at the Honda Classic and I was really impressed with his game at the Dell Technologies Match Play when he finished third losing out on a place in the final when Kevin Kisner beat him at the first extra hole.
Last year on the European Tour Noren went off the boil a wee bit, only winning once and four top 10s after four victories the previous season. He’s playing more Stateside this year and the courses seem to suit his game. He is worth considering at the prices being offered.
- Par 5s: Birdie or Better: 56.52% (6th). Strokes Gained: Putting: 0.648 (20th). Putting Average: 1.752 (38th).
Phil Mickelson
Since 1991 Phil Mickelson’s Augusta record is something to behold. In 27 years he has missed the Masters just once (1994) and had three wins and 12 top 10s. He has only missed the cut THREE times in those 27 years which in itself is an amazing stat.
In 2010 he won the Green Jacket for the third time with a score of -16. A few weeks back I tipped Mickelson when he won the WGC-Mexico Championship after nearly five years without a victory on Tour. It wasn’t a win that came out of the blue either.
Lefty's form had been good in the lead-up to Mexico with four top 10s this season. If Phil wins this week he will overtake Jack Nicklaus as the oldest champion and I for one would not be surprised.
Par 5s: Birdie or Better: 50.89% (21st). Strokes Gained: Putting: 1.082(2nd). Putting Average: 1.659 (2nd).
Dustin Johnson
I couldn’t go a Major without picking world No.1 Dustin Johnson. His performance in the WGC Dell Matchplay a couple of weeks ago was poor but until then he had been superb.
In his five other outings he won the Sentry Tournament of Champions, had two seconds and T7-T14-T16 so I’m going to ignore the Matchplay.
It’s taken a while for DJ to get used to the Augusta course but a T6 in 2015 and T4 2016 show he is now comfortable there.
The negative side is no world No.1 has won the Masters since Tiger in 2002. However, records are there to be broken and if anyone can do it, it’s DJ.
He didn’t take part last year due to falling down some stairs so as long as he is staying in a bungalow he has a chance.
Par 5s: Birdie or Better: 62.50% (1st). Strokes Gained: Putting: 0.669 (14th). Putting Average: 1.655 (1st).
Rickie Fowler
Another player I selected last year was Fowler who was also in the mix on Sunday. Playing with his pal Jordan Spieth fireworks were expected but unfortunately they both blew up.
First Jordan and then Rickie began to drop away and a final round 76 slid Fowler down the leaderboard to finish T11. This season has been very up and down, with two top 10s (2nd at OHL Mayakoba and T4 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions), the only results to enthuse over.
In fact last week at Houston he had his lowest finish of the season (T43). The good thing to take from that outing was a first-round 66 and second-round 68.
Fowler’s Masters record isn’t that great and his stats this year are below average but serendipity took a hand when, as I went looking for Henrik Stenson’s stats whose appeared but Fowler’s. So that was my decision made! Not got great faith in this selection but I just couldn’t leave him out.
Par 5s: Birdie or Better: 42.71% (101st). Strokes Gained: Putting: 0.49 (102nd). Putting Average: 1.748 (34th).
Recommended Bets
- 2pts ew Justin Rose (14-1, William Hill – 7 places)
- 2pts ew Phil Mickelson (18-1, William Hill)
- 2pts ew Alex Noren (40-1, Paddy Power 40-1 – 8 places)
- 2pts ew Dustin Johnson (12-1, Paddy Power)
- 1.5pts ew Rickie Fowler (22-1, Paddy Power)
Im backing Thomas Pieters even though his form has been shocking lately.
Ace, who was the biggest upset ever to win the masters?
Hi Notorious, It’s hard to say, Danny Willett was a big price but I remember backing Canadian Mike Weir in 2003 when he won it and he also was a big price. I’m sure he or South African Trevor Immelman (2008) who I had also back and had missed the first eight tournaments of the season due to a cancerous growth, were around 90-1. It’s a tournament that doesn’t throw up big priced winners a lot but it does happen.
Notorious, just watching a replay of last year and Thomas Pieters had a good first two rounds before a 75 in the third round dropped him down the leaderboard, Not a bad selection.
Hi Ace, what’s your thoughts on Poulter after the heroics over the weekend?
I follow your tips with interest but after hearing the mix up over his points last week and the fact he had to enter Houston and win to get a place in The Masters, I thought it was too good a story to miss and got him at 80/1!
Got him at 66/1 for The Masters straight after but think it may have taken all out of him just to get there…..
I can’t answer for Ace but I’d be amazed if Poulter won. Not many win a Major after winning the week before – Phil Mickelson did when he followed Scottish Open success by taking The Open but it’s unusual.
As you say would have taken a lot out of him and then he didn’t get to Augusta until today.
He’s played well the last couple of weeks but does he have a Major in him? I’m not sure.
Think I would agree Mr F but at that price and Bet365 paying 8 places, it is worth it. Momentum does wonders for confidence.
For the record I think this will be Justin Roses’s year.
I’m backing Rose, Bubba and Mickelson – but it as Ace says it’s wide open with loads of the top players in good form.
Should be a great tournament.
Yes, wide open and so many top players coming into it in form. I really would like to see Rory lift it and complete the Grand Slam.
Can’t wait for it to start now!
Hi AndyMAc1980, Have to agree with Mr Fixit here. It was a great result for Poulter last week but the pressure he must have been under would have taken a hell of a lot out of him. I think getting into the Masters is a result for him but he could maybe get a top 20 finish.
Thanks for coming back Ace. Think we’re all in agreement here. Will see how my e/w pans out though.
Good luck with the tips!
Main Selection:
Bubba Watson 2 pts e/w @ 16/1
Others:
Jon Rahm 1pt e/w @ 28/1
Jason Day 1pt e/w @ 18/1
Patrick Reed 0.25pts e/w @ 66/1 (put on a few weeks back)
Tyrrel Hatton 0.25pts e/w @ 80/1
Big golfer I know is hot on Noren too. Reckons I should go big on a top 20 finish. 11/8 @ 365.
Can get some decent odds on multiples for players to make the cut @ 365.
I’ve been told Cantlay, Noren, Finau and Grace are all decent odds but I know zilch about this ball sport. @mr-fixit?
Noren and Finau should be fine – Grace has missed three cuts out of four at Augusta.
Cantley I don’t know much about but played well at the Match Play.
Noren is one of Ace’s ew tips.
I’m a loyal follower of Ace”s tips pretty much every week. However I may drop Fowler and Johnson and add a couple of outsiders and I also fancy Jason Day to be thereabouts. I’ve a day and a bit to finalise. Que a Fowler and Johnson play off!
Had another look at the players and though Paul Casey is a good price (around 22s). He’s had three top sixes in his last three outings here.
Two years ago is my claim to betting glory as i backed Danny Willet at 80/1, what a Sunday night i had!
Last year like Ace i backed Rose, was looking good but could not begrudge Garcia his first major.
Still debating who to back, will post shortly.
If you pick another Willett you’ll be doing great. Think it will one of the big guns this year.
Can easily go mad, have decided on the following and kept the majority straight win, for the returns with each way it’s not worth the extra cash risk.
Was wanting to back one of the favs, after backing Spieth to win Uk Open last year at 14/1 i was tempted to back him at Augusta but i have went with Mcilroy who has been fairly solid round here, seems to be less pressure on him with all the big names this year, has started to hit a bit of form and this is the last major he needs. I have never backed Rory but i will be cheering him on this weekend.
Day has the game to win, again he has been solid round Augusta, he has won a couple of times this season and is overpriced at 22/1. Matsuyama is also overpriced at 33/1 as he went off joint fav in the last major . Rahm i believe has the game to win here, i think this is a couple of years too soon but would hate to miss out if he does it this year. Chappell is an outsider interest, tied 7th here last year so lets see what he can do.
McIlroy 12/1 – £15
Day 22/1 – £10
Rahm 25/1 – Free £5
Matsuyama 33/1 – Free £5
Chappell 130/1 – £1 ew
Backed Spieth first round leader at evens inplay, winnings on him to win the tournament 9/4. Will be cheering on both Rory and Spieth now.