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For us British and Irish horse fanatics, there is only a few races that come to our radar from down under, and you can probably whittle that down to just two, the Cox Plate and the Melbourne Cup.
As we draw to the end of flat season in Europe, the season is only just starting in Asia and Australia and the Cox Plate gets underway at Moonee Valley in the early hours of our Saturday Morning, 7:10 am to be precise.
Recent history of the Cox Plate
This race has predominantly been won by Australian/New Zealand based trainers, but in recent years there has been a few foreign victories, with the Irish taking two and Japan winning one as well. The UK and Ireland trainers have tried to win this race on multiple of occasions in recent years, due to the amazing prize money on offer, so to walk away with just two wins shows that it's not as easy as it looks when taking on the Aussies.
State Of Rest was a winner for Joseph O'Brien back in 2021 and Aidan managed to win it in 2014 with Adelaide, which is a fitting name to win in Australia. You could arguably say that Aidan has paid a part in a second winner in the last ten years with Sir Dragonet (I'm joking), as that horse was touted for big things under Aidan when trained in Ireland. However, he didn't quite see out his potential, but did manage to win the Cox Plate for new connections in 2020.
We've seen the great Winx strut her stuff at Moonee Vallee on many occasions as she managed to rack up four Cox Plate's for trainer Chris Waller and jockey Hugh Bowman between the years 2015-2018. What a wonderful mare she was, and she has cemented herself as one of the best mares we've ever seen, even though we never managed to see her outside of her native land. However, she proved herself against some quality European horses, even in this race when she beat Benbatl in 2018, and beat him easily.
Last year the race was won by Romantic Warrior who was swapped between trainers, previously being trained in Hong Kong before going to Danny Shum's yard, and since he has gone back to Hong Kong. He was positioned in around fourth place when he beat Mr Brightside (races in this year's renewal for all your The Killers fans). Moonee Valley is a tight track, especially the short run in, so being prominent is the place to be. Given how close Mr Brightside went in this race last year, he has surely got a good chance of redeeming himself this time around.
A closer look at the runners
Mr Brightside
Starting off in number order we have Mr Brightside who was mentioned above. He finished second in this race last year, so has to be respected, but he has a weird profile and it did come as a bit of a shock that he nearly won last year as he was 8/1. That's not massive odds, but his profile prior and after that race shows that he isn't a consistent top level performer who will go close in every Group 1 he races in.
He is very versatile in terms of ground and trip, he is comfortable over a mile and today's trip of 10f, and has form on heavy ground and good ground. Since his run in this race year he has won three Group 1's, two over 7f and the latter over a mile, being an odds-on shot on the first two runs. I still have doubts whether this trip is what he wants.
Prognosis
Prognosis is the Japanese contender for this race. The Japanese have been a dominant force in the world of horse racing in recent years, getting wins at Meydan and the Breeder's Cup amongst many other big meetings, but this horse doesn't look like their best. His form is decent, he was third behind Equinox and has finishing as runner-up being last year's winner of this race, Romantic Warrior on a couple of occasions.
He could run a big race, but he tends to be held up at the rear of the field, and I don't think that's ideal. He might get away with it due to it not being the biggest of fields, but his last run in August wasn't the best.
Kovalica
The first Chris Waller trained horse is Kovalica, and I'm not going to beat around the bush, I don't think he is good enough to be winning a Cox Plate. He has won one Group 1, which is obviously a great achievement, but in comparison to the others in this race, he doesn't look good enough.
Royal Patronage
A name which will be familiar to some of you is Royal Patronage who used to be trained by the Johnston's. He was second in the Dante behind the Derby winner of that year, Desert Crown. He has since moved to Graham Motion's in America and is now in Australia where he has had four runs so far. He was a decent horse in the UK, but looks around the same level that he used to be and that level should not be good enough.
Docklands
The sole UK runner in the race is Docklands. Obviously, we know the most about this horse who is trained by Harry Eustace and we will more than likely give him a better chance than what he actually has, but I'll try to be as honest as possible.
He is a decent horse, who hasn't quite cut it at the top level. His form is good, especially the second behind Charyn at Royal Ascot, which has been franked on a number of occasions this season.
His first attempt over today's trip was in the Juddmonte at York when he finished 7th/13, 11.5L behind City Of Troy. You can probably give him a second chance as he was slow out the gates at York, but if I'm being honest, I don't think he's good enough. He is probably flattered to have finished 2nd in the Group 1 behind Charyn, as the horses closely in behind would get lapped in this race.
Pride of Jenni
Pride of Jenni is an interesting runner as she has pumped Mr Brightside on the last three occasions they have raced against each other, albeit over shorter. However, she is capable of winning over today's trip as we saw when she battered Via Sistina by 6L a few weeks ago.
She is unexposed at the trip and is 1/3 over 10f, with a close runner-up finish in there as well. The first run over this trip was on soft ground, which is something she is against, and I think she is a big contender for the Cox Plate. She did run seven days ago, which is very close to today's race and leaves me thinking that it might be coming too soon for her, but if she is in peak fitness, she is a big player.
Via Sistina
Chris Waller's second runner of the race is Via Sistina, who I just mentioned above. She is the mount of James McDonald and is a name you should all recognise as she was previously trained in the UK by Joseph Tuite before moving to George Boughey.
She had some very strong pieces of form in the UK, with some impressive wins on soft ground. She was second to King Of Steel, which is her best run according to Racing Post figures on Champion's Day last year. She was a Group 1 winner at the Curragh when trained in the UK, which did come on good ground, but the level of horse she beat is up for debate.
Since moving to Australia she is a dual Group 1 winner, on good ground again, but her heavy defeat to Pride Of Jenni on similar ground does raise questions. If this was on soft ground, she would be the one to beat, but it isn't so I think I'm happy to look elsewhere.
Other runners
There is a couple of three-year-olds in this race and they make it very interesting.
The first younger horse in Broadsiding, who probably would've been the ride of James McDonald, but there was no way on earth he was making 7st 11lbs. This horse is by Too Darn Hot, so you'd have to question whether the trip is what he wants, but every time he has run over a mile he has done his best work at the finish, so based on that, he looks like he'll be an improver for the step up in trip.
My biggest concern is how he'll be positioned in the race as he has been held up in the past and I think due to him stepping up in trip, they'll try and ride him cold. He might be able to get away with it due to his low weight, seeing him get 17lbs from the older mares and 21lbs from the lads. I think he has a cracking chance now going up in trip.
The other three-year-old is Evaporate, who has a close form line with Broadsiding from their most recent run. Evaporate was a neck ahead of Broadsiding, so if you like his chances, you probably have to give a chance to Evaporate, even though he wasn't anywhere near as fancied in the market. To my eyes, Broadsiding had every opportunity to go past Evaporate in that race, but couldn't manage it.
They both came from a similar position, you could say Evaporate got a little head start, but I never felt that the Godolphin horse was ever going to go past Evaporate until the final half furlong, so I think the longer trip will suit Broadsiding more.
My predictions
It doesn't look like a vintage Cox Plate and it wouldn't surprise me if a few of these won it. It seems like a race where if you ran it five times, you could get a different winner on nearly every occasion, but I've fallen on the young Godolphin horse, Broadsiding to come out victorious and becoming the first three-year-old winner since 2013.
I think he will be held up, and as I've mentioned that is a concern, but it's not a big field and knowing he has the tactical speed for shorter trips, I think he should be fine and will be able to creep into contention down the back straight to get a prominent position before the one furlong dash for home after swinging off the bend. The light weight is going to be a huge factor and I think the extra couple of furlongs will be a positive for Broadsiding who looked in need of further last time out at Caulfield in the Guineas race.
I think Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside can fill the places.
If you're getting up nice and early for the Cox Plate, get yourself a brew and enjoy the racing down under!
