Racing tips: Your Own Story can secure double National Success for Russell & Fox

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It's been a terrible month so far and yesterday was no different. The 2yo debutante finished second and was keen but that happens on debut with 2yo's, so did well and will be a nice horse for the future.

Heartache Tonight got the lead but lacked the speed in the final furlongs, but did stay on again, so probably the jockey set the wrong fractions and should've gone a bit harder on the front. Bass Rock jumped the fences like they were hurdles today, jumping far too low and he paid the price in the end when he wasn't in with a chance anyway when unseating the jockey. I think his rhythm was halted when he jumped into the back of Christopher Wood on the first circuit, things went downhill fairly quickly after that.

Navan 3:00 – The Antarctic 11/8 (1pt)

I'll start off with the flat runners in Ireland to kickstart the thread for Saturday's racing…

The Antarctic is the clear pick in this race for me. He should be coming into his own now he's a 3yo, based on his pedigree this trip will suit him more than the other two main rivals in the market as he is a full brother to Battaash, and the others have looked like a horse who will appreciate a longer distance, almost as if this is a stepping stone and warm up race for some races over 7f or even a mile in a month or so.

The Antarctic was a good juvenile sprinter but was mainly in the shadow of his stablemate Blackbeard. However, he looked like a horse who would be better with age, and with a good winter break allowing him to mature, you'd like to imagine he can improve leaps and bounds this year as a sprinter, whether or not he'll be anywhere near as good as his brother, time will tell, but I think he'll be a Group 1 winning sprinter at some point this year.

Navan 4:35 – French Claim 5/2 (1pt)

It isn't a wise move going against Aidan O'Brien and his battalion of super horses, but I think this race is a fairly weak race and his two runners aren't exactly bombproof.

French Claim will appreciate every drop of rain which will come before racing, and there is a fair amount expected, so the more the merrier for this race. He clearly relished a soft surface last time out. He won a race he was expected to win but he won by 7L and it could've easily been more. He relished soft ground at Cork last year and he didn't quite get it for the rest of the season, but you'd have to say he ran well in the St Leger at Doncaster when he was given a strange ride. He raced very wide, led, then started to go backwards when horses got near him, was hampered but then started to run on again. Despite all of that happening, he still managed to only be 2L behind Emily Dickinson and based on that, I think he can easily beat that filly this time around with a better ride.

French Claim has already raced this season, which will count for a lot at this point of the flat season as he should strip a lot fitter than the others who haven't raced in this, so he is the likeliest winner for me.

Ayr 1:15 – Frere D'Armes 13/8 (2pt)

I'm guessing most of you will remember Frere D'Armes being a recent tip when he finished 2nd in a Class 2 race at Ascot which was won by Black Gerry.

I was counting my money that day, as Harry Skelton looked supremely confident when slicing through the field like a hot knife through butter, but Black Gerry came late and powerful, winning for a yard who has been in red hot form for quite a number of weeks now. I think that was still a good effort by Frere D'Armes who might've needed that run after a 128-day absence, and it doesn't surprise me that they've come to Ayr with him as his next assignment as it's a festival that the Skelton's like to target and normally do well at.

Harry Skelton isn't on board today, which is probably from an injury from his recent fall on Heltenham so we have Bridget Andrews on board, who is more than capable as we saw at the recent Cheltenham festival where she landed her second festival win.

Ayr 1:50 – City Chief 2/1 (2pt)

It was frustrating when Coconut Splash was brought down at Aintree last weekend as it would've been interesting to see how the form lines with City Chief was going to fare in a competitive race. Unfortunately, I didn't get to see that play out but I am still willing to bet on City Chief to win today.

Nicky Henderson won this race last year with Dusart who also carried top-weight to his success like City Chief will have to do if he wants to give Nicky a second win in a row. I think this horse has bags of potential and a mark of 142 is definitely in reach, even in a decent race off top weight. He won nicely at Wetherby in a Grade 2 last time and I don't think this race is full of well-handicapped horses, so with him being the class horse in the race, he should be tough to beat, if jumping around without issues.

Ayr 2:25 – Milkwood 9/1 (0.5pt ew 4pl)

Probably my least confident runner of the day is Milkwood who runs in the Scottish Champion Hurdle for the third time in his career.

There's no doubt in my mind that this race has been the plan for 8 months or so and they've worked backwards from this point and every race in between has been a preparation for it. He won this race back in 2021 off a handicap mark of 142, beating none other than Anna Bunina who was runner-up that year, and he beat her by 3.75L and carried 7lbs more. He is now rated 138 and though you'd have to question whether he is as good as he once was, his handicap mark is getting ridiculously low to ignore and he has form from this season which makes you think he is still capable of mixing it at this level.

I don't think this race is as strong as what it might look, as on paper it looks like a hot race and one which bookies will be licking their lips at. However, how many of the horses in this race are probably deemed to be well-handicapped, and as well-handicapped as Milkwood? I'd go ahead and say zero. When you consider Milkwood finished second in a Galway Hurdle off 147, how many others would be able to do that?

I thought his run at Wetherby in February was a very good effort and maybe one which goes under the radar. He travelled smoothly into that race off 12stone and only got tired late on over a trip which is too far for him and it was after a decent absence off the track. The runner-up and fifth have won since, so there's substance to the form. His run at Cheltenham was poor but that was on soft ground, so you can ignore that and I'm hoping Ayr doesn't get too much rain and it will scupper his chances but I think he can't be ignored.

Ayr 3:35 – Your Own Story 13/2 (2pt ew 6pl)

The Scottish National is definitely more competitive than the Aintree Grand National of last week, as last week I only fancied a couple and not many could've won it in my eyes, but this race is great and is a tough one to pick a winner.

I'm sticking to a previous selection of mine and my Grand National-winning combination of Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox who partner up with Your Own Story. This horse has been crying out for a marathon trip all season long, and when Lucinda pressed the button and gave it to him he won and won nicely, looking like a proper Scottish National contender as the further he went the better he looked.

He gets into this race at the bottom of the weights and is officially 1lb worse off at the weights as he is rated 127 but he has to run off 128 to get into the race, but that means nothing to me. He has been the most consistent horse in defeat this year, but his only win of the season came when winning over 3m 7f at Wetherby, and like I said it looked like he wanted further, which is what it looked like at Haydock last time out when he only started to get going in the final furlong, which was not enough time over 3m 4f to bridge the gap between him and the winner.

We all know how good Lucinda is as a trainer and you better believe this has been the plan for some time.

Bangor 2:50 – Storm Tiger 3/1 (1pt)

This one is a bit of a left-of-field bet for Saturday as I head to Bangor for my final selection of the write-up, with another previous selection being touted up for a big run now he's going up to 3m which is what I've been wanting for some time.

Storm Tiger should've been racing over 3m a fair few runs ago, but for some reason connections thought it wasn't needed, but they clearly have been watching the same horse as me as they now go for it. He has been running over 2m 4f and his best work is done in the final furlong or so in his races, so why race him over a trip which is clearly too short when you can put him up to 3m and let his stamina come into play, which is clearly his strong point.

I believe he is on a good handicap mark of 95 and if doesn't show an improvement for the step up in trip, I'll be gobsmacked.

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