Today, all eyes will be on the Man City relegation odds market, as football's ‘Trial of the Century' begins, with the dominant Premier League side of the past decade in the dock for 115 alleged breaches of financial regulations.
Ask a bunch of Premier League fans who they fancy to go down this season, and the promoted trio will still be the most popular picks. Yet, there are some punters fancying a bet on Man City to be relegated. Crazy, right?
Well maybe not, as their market-best relegation odds currently stand at 12/1, and even as low as 7/2 with one bookmaker. Read on to see why the reigning English champions could be staring into the abyss soon.
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Why do Man City relegation odds look tempting right now?
Let’s face it, the Citizens would usually be much more assured of their Premier League status. To put City’s aforementioned relegation price into context, Arsenal – who finished just a single point behind City last season – are currently priced at 2500/1 to go down.
So, relatively speaking, why are current Man City relegation odds so low? All we know so far is that Man City are charged with 115 counts of financial wrongdoing, and the potential punishments vary.
However, a hefty points deduction is the one most talked about, especially in the aftermath of Everton and Nottingham Forest losing a combined total of 12 points (eight and four respectively) in the 2023/24 campaign for breaching Profit and Sustainability Rules.
Some Premier League executives have suggested that enough points could even be docked to guarantee City’s exit from the league – in the event of guilty verdicts. Amongst other reports, such talk has undoubtedly played its part in the trend of bookmakers slashing Man City relegation odds to prices not seen for a very long time.
The latest developments
Practically sat in the shadow of St Paul's Cathedral, the International Dispute Resolution Centre in London is the chosen venue for City's hearing against 115 charges. In the true fashion of the Premier League's reigning champions, no expense has been spared, and the sense of grandeur is resounding.
The same might well be said for the charges and the penalties that may follow. Of the 115 charges, 54 are for alleged failures to provide accurate and up-to-date financial information between 2009/10 and 2017/18 inclusive. Meanwhile, a further 35 relate to alleged failures to cooperate with the PL during an investigation into their conduct, which spanned between December 2018 and February 2023.
How many points will Man City lose if guilty?
Right now, we don’t know what any potential points deduction will look like. If using the Everton and Forest cases as precedents, it averages out at four points per breach of PSR regulations, with a sliding scale depending on the severity of the breach.
If the same model is followed in City's case, then the only conclusion to draw is that a complete set of 115 guilty verdicts would result in an utterly biblical amount of points deducted.
By logic alone, it would surely surpass the most severe punishment ever seen in the top four divisions of English football, when Luton infamously started the 2008/09 campaign on -30 points after a Football League ruling over their insolvency status. In that case, relegation was inevitable for the Hatters before the first ball was kicked.
A reality check for the anti-City camp
Could this uncertainty be all too much for City's players? At the moment there are no clear signs of harm on the pitch, with City starting their ‘Trial of the Century' top of the PL on the back of a 100% four-game start. Erling Haaland has been his usual unstoppable self, falling just one goal short of being the first man since 1946 to net three successive hat-trick's in the English top flight.
And despite looking relatively bleak, current Man City relegation odds also reflect hope as well as potential despair. Their relegation is far likelier than normal, but given that many of the alleged breaches will likely come to nothing, the price won't tumble to something monstrous like 1/25 for relegation any time soon.
Even so, it seems highly unlikely that they’ll simply walk away unscathed, and a fresh multitude of legal battles will surely unfold in due course, away from the prying eyes of fans and television cameras. A final decision is expected in the spring of 2025.
Freelance sports and sports betting writer with more than a decade of experience writing a variety of betting articles, covering several sports and gambling topics.
