With news emerging recently that the trial regarding Manchester City’s financial breaches had reached its conclusion, odds remain alarmingly short for the Citizens to be relegated from the Premier League after 23 years of unbroken membership.
City are now viewed as equally likely to be relegated as they are to win the title, with their recent on-field woes coming in combination with their 115 cases of financial misconduct.
There is a common belief that something is eating away at a side once so widely fancied to win a fifth successive league title, and bookies now have 10/1 odds on either option for City, who have been enduring their worst run of form since Pep Guardiola took over in 2016.
Why do Man City relegation odds look tempting right now?
Let’s face it, the Citizens would usually be much more assured of their Premier League status. To put City’s aforementioned relegation price into context, Arsenal – who finished just a single point behind City last season – are currently priced in the thousands to go down.
So, relatively speaking, why are current Man City relegation odds so low? All we know so far is that Man City are charged with 115 counts of financial wrongdoing, and the potential punishments vary.
However, a hefty points deduction is the one most talked about, especially in the aftermath of Everton and Nottingham Forest losing a combined total of 12 points (eight and four respectively) in the 2023/24 campaign for breaching Profit and Sustainability Rules.
Some Premier League executives have suggested that enough points could even be docked to guarantee City’s exit from the league – in the event of guilty verdicts. Amongst other reports, such talk has undoubtedly played its part in the trend of bookmakers slashing Man City relegation odds to prices not seen for a very long time.
The latest developments
Practically sat in the shadow of St Paul's Cathedral, the International Dispute Resolution Centre in London was the chosen venue for City's hearing against 115 charges. Of those, 54 are for alleged failures to provide accurate and up-to-date financial information between 2009/10 and 2017/18 inclusive.
Meanwhile, a further 35 relate to alleged failures to cooperate with the PL during an investigation into their conduct, which spanned between December 2018 and February 2023.
Yet, although the main reason for shortening odds on Man City’s potential relegation is undoubtedly the conclusion of the investigation, the side’s awful form of late should not be discounted either.
City are currently eight points behind league leaders Liverpool, having played an extra game. They have only won one of their previous 10 fixtures in all competitions too.
Pep Guardiola’s misery was worsened in midweek, as the Citizens were defeated 2-0 away from home by Juventus. Dusan Vlahovic and Weston McKennie were both on the scoresheet to put City in real jeopardy regarding qualification for the next stage.
They have only amassed eight points from their opening six Champions League matches, with only a point separating them from the chasing pack who currently would not qualify for the next stage.
Coupling their awful Champions League form with the fact City have fallen far behind Liverpool at the top of the Premier League, and one can begin to see why the club finds itself in such disarray currently.
It's not easy to pick on any standout underachievers, as there are so many. But one of the most disappointing signings this season has been Savinho, who is yet to register a single goal in 19 appearances in all competitions to date.
The Brazilian’s performances epitomise City’s woes, adding further vindication to their mere 10/1 odds of relegation from England’s top flight.
How many points will Man City lose if guilty?
Right now, we don’t know what any potential points deduction will look like. If using the Everton and Forest cases as precedents, it averages out at four points per breach of PSR regulations, with a sliding scale depending on the severity of the breach.
If the same model is followed in City's case, then the only conclusion to draw is that a complete set of 115 guilty verdicts would result in an utterly biblical amount of points deducted.
By logic alone, it would surely surpass the most severe punishment ever seen in the top four divisions of English football, when Luton infamously started the 2008/09 campaign on -30 points after a Football League ruling over their insolvency status. In that case, relegation was inevitable for the Hatters before the first ball was kicked.
A reality check for the anti-City camp
Despite looking relatively bleak, current Man City relegation odds also reflect hope as well as potential despair. Their relegation is far likelier than normal, but given that many of the alleged breaches will likely come to nothing, the price won't tumble to something monstrous like 1/25 for relegation any time soon.
Even so, it seems highly unlikely that they’ll simply walk away unscathed, and a fresh multitude of legal battles will surely unfold in due course, away from the prying eyes of fans and television cameras. A final decision is expected in the spring of 2025.
Freelance sports and sports betting writer with more than a decade of experience writing a variety of betting articles, covering several sports and gambling topics.
