It’s semi-final time in New York, with the men’s US Open semi-finals taking place on Friday. Day 12 of the tournament brings two riveting match ups, with Jack Draper taking on world No. 1 Jannik Sinner and two Americans clashing as Frances Tiafoe meets Taylor Fritz.
We’ve analysed the betting markets for both matches and come up with three sharp betting tips for day 12 of the US Open. Read on to find out what they are, and who will prevail.
Best US Open betting tips for day 12
If you take bookmaker Betfred’s word for it, both these matches have heavy favourites–Sinner and Fritz. We agree with their first estimation; it’s pretty unlikely Draper will be able to upset the ever-solid Sinner. However, we’re not so convinced that Fritz is a guaranteed win over Tiafoe.
Off the back of these predictions, here are the best bets to make on the US Open men’s semi-finals.
Tiafoe +3.5 handicap vs Fritz @ 5/6
If you check out our full Tiafoe vs Fritz prediction, you’ll see we’re tipping Big Foe to win this one. That’s largely because of the value his outright winner odds are, at 2/1. However, a more conservative yet still rewarding bet is backing Tiafoe to cover the +3.5 game spread.
Tiafoe is a big momentum player, and even if he doesn’t win this match, should run-hot for at least one set and win it 6-2 or 6-3. Fritz, on the other hand, is a very tight, consistent player that will usually be winning sets with just one break of serve or in tiebreaks.
Do the math, and if Fritz does win, Tiafoe is very likely to still be within the +3.5 game margin. We’re thinking something like 7-5, 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (5) as a worst case scenario, which is just a one game difference.
Fritz vs Tiafoe to be five sets @ 9/4
More likely, this one goes the distance. Again, it comes down to the ebbs and flows of Tiafoe. He is playing lights out tennis, and can absolutely break Fritz’s serve and wins sets off his compatriot on Friday. However, whether he can string together 30 or so solid games in a row is another question. He will likely go off the boil at times.
Both want this so badly, and the crowd will be willing them on. It feels like this one is destined to go the distance.
Sinner vs Draper under 35.5 games @ 5/6
In our full Sinner vs Draper prediction, we’re forecasting that Sinner will win this clash 3-0. He has looked remarkably solid in New York, and is stylistically a very challenging match up for Draper. The fact that the Brit had a thigh issue against Alex de Minaur, and is playing in his first-ever Grand Slam semi-final doesn’t help–this could well be over quickly.
Or, there’s an alternate universe where Draper plays fearless tennis, and races through this one the same way he’s done all US Open: in straight sets. Far less likely, but still an option.
Either way, this one will be over in less than 35.5 games.
Have a hot betting tip for day 12 of the US Open? Let us know in the comments below!
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
