Israel Adesanya and Nassourdine Imavov will fly to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia this weekend to feature in the headline act of UFC Fight Night 250. Even though no title is at stake, both fighters will be eager to win this battle and pave the road to a future title fight. Here are our Adesanya vs Imavov predictions as these two UFC stars prepare to conquer the Saudi Arabian capital.
Tale of the tape
Adesanya steps into the Octagon with a 24-4-0 record. The 35-year-old is one of the biggest UFC stars on the planet, but luck has not been on his side lately.
Adesanya will be hoping to recover in style after suffering consecutive losses against Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland. He is still the fourth-ranked middleweight fighter and the third-best MMA striker in history. Fighting out of Auckland, New Zealand, his skillset is based on a solid background in boxing, Muay Thai, and kickboxing.
Imavov has a 15-4 professional mixed martial arts record. Currently riding a three-fight winning run, he has defeated Brendan Allen by unanimous decision, Roman Dolidze by majority decision, and Jared Cannonier by TKO (punches & knees).
Fighting out of Salon-de-Provence, France, the 28-year-old also had a no-contest against Chris Curtis; his latest loss came from unanimous decision against Sean Strickland. This is his first significant payday in the sport.
Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov hot tip: Adesanya to win via decision
Our pick for the main event in Saudi Arabia is Adesanya. Although his current form begs some questions, the former champion is still a dangerous and very talented fighter. He has publicly expressed his intentions of making a statement in this fight, and if he approaches the Octagon with the right mindset, he has all the attributes to back up his words.
Age benefits Imavov; yet, Adesanya has the advantage in experience and battle-tested endurance. Another important consideration is his reach advantage; it will enable him to control the distance and maybe keep Imavov on the outside. So, judges should be convinced of an Adesanya victory once the final bell rings.
Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov: Key stats
- Imavov’s fights tend to finish earlier than his upcoming nemesis. Adesanya’s fights last 18:18 on average, while Imvov’s fights last 15:16 on average.
- None of the fighters have a weight advantage as both of them weigh exactly 185 lbs.
- Adesanya has a greater reach advantage. His 80″ reach advantage is five inches larger than Imavov’s.
- Imavov has a 55% striking accuracy, which is 7% higher than Adesanya.
Fight odds and win probability
Here are the current Adesanya vs Imavov odds:
Israel Adesanya: 16/25 (1.64) – 60.98%
Nassourdine Imavov: 11/8 (2.38) – 42.11%
*Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov betting odds from Boylesports, subject to change.
Keys to victory
Adesanya has a rich UFC legacy to look back upon, but he is licking his wounds after two consecutive defeats.
Imavov will look to take advantage of a fighter who is desperate to return to winning ways. So, this should be a tight affair that might go down to the last second.
Israel Adesanya: Control the distance and counterpunch
Adesanya's excellent kickboxing ability and reach advantage should let him control the distance.
His jab, teep kicks, and lateral mobility help him to keep Imavov on the outside and prevent needless close-range collisions. If Adesanya keeps control, he can wear down Imavov without putting himself at risk of being hit back.
Imavov has shown solid boxing skills and a willingness to push forward. Adesanya is one of the top counter-strikers in mixed martial arts though. He can leverage Imavov's aggressiveness by keeping cool and applying head movement, feints, and rapid pivots. Should Imavov overcommit, Adesanya's accuracy might result in a knockout or a resounding decision victory.
Nassourdine Imavov: Close the distance
Taking the fight to Adesanya and tightening the range will help Imavov's chances the best.
Adesanya performs best when he has room to employ his striking and footwork; therefore, Imavov has to be proactive and eliminate that range advantage. Imavov can restrict Adesanya's capacity to operate from distance via forward pressing and volume hitting. The secret will be to push interactions in the pocket where Adesanya finds less joy.
Adesanya is known for his strong defensive ability so Imavov will have to change his strategy. Apart from his hands and kicks, mixing in clinch exchanges against the cage can help to upset Adesanya's rhythm. Imavov's close-range prowess and strong clinch game could wear down Adesanya, creating opportunities for takedowns and strikes.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
