With the events of day seven at the ATP Rome Masters 2024, the men’s draw has been blown wide open. No Novak Djokovic will mean that Stefanos Tsitsipas fancies his chances of making a run all the way to the title here in Italy. But, can he navigate the challenge of Cam Norrie in the third round? Read on for our Tsitsipas vs Norrie prediction and betting tips.
Tsitsipas is a fascinating character. The Greek had gone off the boil for large stretches of 2023, even dropping out of the top 10 earlier this year. However, a title in Monte Carlo and a run to the final in Barcelona reminded tennis fans just what the 25-year-old can do when he’s locked in. The question in this match is, will he be?
On the other side of the net is Brit No 1 Norrie. The 28-year-old has run hot and cold over the last 12 months, at times looking to be borderline top 10 on clay, at others, looking out of place in the world’s top 50. A run in Rome would be just what the doctor ordered to improve Norrie’s confidence levels ahead of Roland-Garros later this month.
Who prevails in this fascinating round of 32 fixture? We break down all there is to know and give our prediction.
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How the Bookies View It: Little Chance for Norrie
Bookmakers aren’t giving Norrie much of a chance at all in this match. The Brit is a 16/5 underdog, with Tsitsipas paying just 2/9 to win on Monday afternoon. Set betting puts the most likely outcome as a 2-0 scoreline to the No. 6 seed, at 3/4.
Recent Head-to-Head: Even Stevens
It’s been over two years since Tsitsipas and Norrie last played on the ATP Tour. Their head-to-head is sitting at 1-1, with Norrie winning 6-4, 6-4 in 2022 on hard, and Tsitsipas prevailing 6-3, 6-3 in 2021 on clay.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Tsitsipas displayed some alarming mental fragility in his most recent match. Playing against Jan-Lennard Struff in the second round of the ATP Rome Masters, the Greek destroyed his racquet just minutes into the encounter. He shared afterwards that he’s never played a match where “so many negative emotions overtook me”.
Earlier this month, Tsitsipas and his girlfriend, WTA player Paula Badosa, announced their split. Whether or not this had anything to do with his headspace on Saturday is unknown, but certainly raises question marks.
Norrie’s win over Jaume Munar in the second round was largely due to his ability to save break points. The Brit served poorly, making just 58 per cent of first serves and facing 15 breakpoints. However, he managed to defend 11 of these to win the clash in three sets.
Tsitsipas vs Norrie Betting Tips & Predictions
Chances are, Tsitsipas wins this match. However, we say the value is in betting on Norrie here, as he has a much better shot at winning than the 16/5 that bookmakers have him at. With Tsitsipas fragile, and Norrie more than capable, we suggest wagering on the upset.
- Norrie to win @ 16/5
- Norrie to win 2-0 @ 13/2
Tsitsipas and Norrie square off second on Centre Court this Monday, so if you like the look of these potentially juicy returns, get your bets in quick.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
