IT'S A big welcome to The UHT as part of our tipster team here at MrFixitsTips. Regular visitors to the site will recognise The UHT for his witty and often winning comments on the site.
He loves to find obscure bets in leagues you may never consider and likes to go against the grain when it comes to goals betting. Here he goes, wish him well:
Going to start tonight with some thoughts on a couple of early games on Monday from the lower leagues in Argentina.
Oh boy! They love a goal there. The problem is they never see any.
Let’s put it this way. The Argentinian lower leagues laugh with derision at parking the bus. In Argentina they double-glaze the goals.
So, welcome, once again, to the magical thrill ride that is betting on unders.
And it’s a whole new season in the Primera B Metropolitana and the Primera C Metropolitana.
Quick overview – the top two leagues in Argentina are the Primera Division and Primera B Nacional.
Then the third tier splits in two with teams around Buenos Aires in one system and other regional teams in the other. So, tier three is Primera B Metropolitana and Torneo Federal A. The fourth tier is Primera C Metropolitana and Torneo Federal B. The fifth tier is Primera D Metropolitana and Torneo Federal C.
You’re welcome.
So, to Monday night’s games. It’s the first game of the season in both cases and worth noting these teams haven’t played since April/May, so, all of the stats I’m using here are from the season that ended back then.
Primera B Metropolitana (7.30pm)
Deportivo Espanol v Talleres Remedia
- Deportivo Espanol HOME RECORD P17 O5 U12 F15 A17 AVG GPG1.9
- Last 5 homes all under. 10 of last 12 games under.
- Talleres Remedia AWAY RECORD P17 O7 U10 F12 A23 AVG GPG2.1
- 6 of last 10 aways under. In those: F6 A15. Consistent with league average.
Last year’s result with this side home and this side away was 2-2. Previous season was 1-0.
We’re not concerned with their results the other way around. These leagues often involve teams that play a completely different way home and away.
Two poor sides. Their stats should be consistent facing each other. Under 2.5 is skinny but about right at 23/40 (Bet365)
Primera C Metropolitana (7.30pm)
Dep Merlo v Club Lujan
- Dep Merlo HOME RECORD P19 O6 U13 F22 A18 AVG GPG2.1
- 5 of last 5 homes under. Goals in those games: F5 A4
- Club Lujan AWAY RECORD P19 O5 U14 F18 A14 AVG GPG1.7
- 4 of last 5 away league games under. Total goals in those games: F4 A3. (They were involved in promotion play offs, but I’m discounting those games, as their approach would be different to standard league method. That said, their one away play-off game was 0-0.)
In the last three seasons, with these teams playing home and away, three games have shared 1 goal.
That was last season, an away win on December 2. (“Christmas has surely come early with a goal finally getting scored in this fixture,” the away fans didn’t say. I’m sure it sounds better in Spanish).
This game is up at 23/40 (bet365) for U2.5 goals.
I’m suggesting an U2.5 double that pays at 2.48 (or pretty much 3/2, if you prefer fractions).
No problem with anyone chancing U1.5 on Dep Merlo v Club Lujan if that becomes available. That should be odds against. (Remember what I said about the last three seasons.)
Summary
I never said this would be edge of your seat beating with mega-odds but once you trust me we’ll maybe look at some under 1.5 accas in these less generous leagues. I won’t only be looking at Argentina! But let’s walk before we run.
Good luck tonight everyone whatever you bet on!
Recommended Bet
- Primera C Metropolitana / Primera D Metropolitana (7.30pm)
- Deportivo Espanol v Talleres Remedia & Dep Merlo v Club Lujan
- Under 2.5 goals double @ 2.48 (bet365)
Will keep an eye out for your bets. Everytime i go unders games end up 3 -3
Good write-up and welcome aboard. And good luck with your first tip.
He who dares Rodders. I’m on
I never bet on Unders,but best of luck UHT.
Welcome back and Good Luck
Welcome back and Good Luck
Hate backing unders but I was going to follow at 6/4. Down to 2.31 at b365 now though so any surplus value is probably gone. Hope it comes good.
Many thanks to Mr F and all for the warm words and the welcome back! Didn’t quite go to plan. Primera B – beautiful! One shot on target all game and one goal. That is what I’m talking about! Primera C… Did nobody send you the script? 8 shots on target, 3 goals in at half-time. You were the game that was nailed-on unders! Stick with me, though. This was the first game of the season. And I don’t see either of these in too many shoot ‘em ups to follow. The irony is these are firing them in while Liverpool and Palace are going Unders! Congrats to all tonight’s winners.
Unlucky there – look forward to the next one.