Taylor vs Serrano 3 prediction: History will be made, one way or another

Madison Square Garden will host a historic all-female event this Friday, as boxing royalty Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano clash for the third time for the WBO, WBC, and IBF super-lightweight titles.

The two legends of women's boxing meet again eight months later, after Katie Taylor defended her belts in November 2024, overcoming Serrano via unanimous decision.

Tale of the tape

In what is arguably the greatest matchup in women's boxing history, there is little that separates Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano. They are close in age, have the same anthropometry and achievements, although Serrano has had double the fights.

At 39 years of age, Taylor continues to write history, becoming a two-weight undisputed champion in 2023. Her only career defeat came to Chantelle Cameron in the same year, but she took revenge and all belts in the rematch a few months later.

Amanda Serrano, a former world champion across seven weight classes, aims to break more records by beating Katie Taylor on her third attempt, having lost the previous two fights. But both defeats were extremely close, and to this day, the Puerto Rican believes she won the first fight.

Taylor vs Serrano hot tip: Fight to go the distance again

Despite the outcomes of the previous encounters, bookmakers once again favour Amanda Serrano to win. But based on the recent encounter in November, Taylor is not to be underestimated, even at this considerable age. In fact, her performance was far better in the second fight than in the first one three years ago.

As the more technical boxer out of the two, Taylor will once again try to control the action and distribute her strength throughout the entire fight. Her last 12 fights all reached the scorecards, and Boylesports offers some solid odds for a decision win for either fighter – 8/11.

Amanda Serrano was a knockout specialist in her peak years, but her strength should no longer be a threat to Taylor. Instead of risking your money on a moneyline bet, back the general decision and enjoy the spectacle.

Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano: Key stats

• Taylor is three years older than Serrano
• Serrano suffered two of her three career defeats to Taylor
• Serrano has won 31 of her 47 wins by knockout
• Taylor is orthodox, while Serrano is a southpaw

Fight odds and win probability

See the current best Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano odds below:

• Katie Taylor: 15/8 (2.87) – Implied probability 34.84%
• Draw: 12/1 (13.00) – Implied probability 7.69%
• Amanda Serrano: 4/6 (1.66) – Implied probability 60.24%

*Taylor vs Serrano betting odds from Boylesports, subject to change.

Keys to victory

There's hardly a better time for Serrano to beat Taylor than now. Both women are far from young, but 39 is a serious age for a boxer. It's clear that Taylor doesn't intend to look for the knockout, and as the more technical boxer, will rely on countering Serrano and landing more punches. Meanwhile, Amanda needs to be more patient as her barrages clearly did not work in the previous fights. For reference, Taylor landed 217 of her 519 attempted punches, while Serrano landed 324 of 734, and it wasn't enough to get the nod.

Serrano needs to be more patient and look for clear openings rather than trying to overwhelm Taylor for 10 rounds straight. If she can reserve her strength and stay fresh until the final rounds, she may yet find a way to overcome Taylor on her third attempt. And who knows, winning will create a possibility for a fourth fight. Given that this is the biggest fight in women's boxing, it's quite clear that Serrano's win will be the most profitable outcome.

🔗 Share on Social Media