Few would have picked that Alejandro Tabilo and Zhizhen Zhang would be meeting in the quarter-finals of the ATP Rome Masters 2024. However, with Tabilo upsetting Novak Djokovic, and Zhang ousting Ben Shelton, we have a surprising quarter-final on our hands this Wednesday. Read on for our Tabilo vs Zhang prediction and betting tips ahead of the clash.
Supporters of Tabilo will say that his success here in Rome is no surprise. The Chilean is in the middle of a breakout year, one that began with a maiden ATP title in Auckland this January. Since then, the 26-year-old has gone on to make the final in Santiago, semi-final in Bucharest, and win a Challenger title. The crowning jewel in his year so far however, was his emphatic straight sets victory over Djokovic on Sunday.
The form of Zhang these past 10 days is a surprise, however. The Chinese No 1 has had a rough year so far, sitting at 7-12 in 2024 with just one win across his last six matches. Something about the Rome clay is working for Zhang though, as he’s powered past Daniel Elahi Galan, Adrian Mannarino, Ben Shelton and Thiago Monteiro to make his second ATP Masters 1000 quarter-final.
With both players facing a maiden Masters semi-final, who will prevail in this battle of the underdogs?
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How the Bookies View It: Tabilo in Charge
Despite both these players being unlikely candidates for a Masters 1000 semi-final, Tabilo is the solid favourite heading into this match. The Chilean pays 8/15 to advance, while Zhang is behind on 6/4. Set betting puts a 2-0 scoreline to Tabilo as the most likely outcome, returning 11/8.
Recent Head-to-Head: Zhang Ahead, Unofficially
This will be the first main draw meeting between Tabilo and Zhang on the ATP Tour. However, the pair did meet in the qualifying of Wimbledon 2021, where Zhang prevailed in two tiebreaker sets.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Speaking of tiebreakers, both players have been clutch in them this tournament.
Tabilo has played three and won three. Two of these were last round against Karen Khachanov, including one that went to 22 points. For Zhang, he’s just played the one, winning the opening set of his round of 16 match in a breaker.
Considering that both sets we saw between these two in 2021 went the distance, there’s a good chance this one will be close too.
Tabilo’s dropshot has been locked in so far this week. In his win over Khachanov, he hit four clean winners using the shot, while against Djokovic, he executed perfectly on two occasions.
Zhang has saved 100 percent of break points faced across his last three matches. In total the past 10 days, the world No 56 has defended 17 of the 19 times he’s been down break point.
Tabilo vs Zhang Betting Tips & Predictions
This is a tough match to call, with both players on form this week. We have to give it to Tabilo though, considering he’s been a consistent performer, while Zhang’s run here is more of a flash in the pan. Expect the Chinese player to flame out, and Tabilo to advance in two sets.
- Tabilo to win 2-0 @ 11/8
- Tabilo to win first set in a tiebreak @ 6/1
Tabilo and Zhang square off second on Center Court today, so get your bets in quick to make the most of these juicy returns on day 10 at the Rome ATP Masters 2024.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
In December 2020 we sadly 
