In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest
Riccardo Calafiori looks excellent value in the shots market this weekend, with BetVictor offering 4/5 on him to register a single attempt at goal. The Arsenal left-back has been consistently involved in advanced positions since joining the club, and the data strongly backs his chances of hitting the target again.
Calafiori has attempted at least one shot in every game this season for both club and country. Across his first three Premier League appearances he has registered eight shots in total, including three against Leeds in Arsenal’s 5-0 win. His output is not speculative either those efforts carry substance, reflected in his 1.4 xG across the three matches. Even in the 1-0 defeat at Liverpool, Calafiori found room for three attempts, underlining how he pushes forward regardless of the opposition.
His underlying creativity and willingness to drive into space further support the case. He has logged 66 carries in the league so far, with six progressive carries into dangerous areas, alongside nine shot-creating actions. That blend of progressive play and confidence in shooting makes him more than just a defensive full-back.
At 4/5, with his 100% record for shots this season, Calafiori stands out as one of the weekend’s strongest player prop bets.
- Best Bet: Riccardo Calafiori over 0.5 shots at 4/5 with BetVictor
Chelsea vs Brentford
Trevoh Chalobah looks an excellent option in the shots market ahead of Chelsea’s trip to Brentford. The centre-back has been consistently involved in attacking situations so far this season, attempting five shots in three league matches, with one on target and a combined 0.5 expected goals. His strike against West Ham highlighted the threat he carries from set pieces, and his numbers suggest that wasn’t a one-off.
Chelsea’s underlying set-piece data strengthens the case. No side in the Premier League has had more shots from dead-ball situations than Chelsea this season, and they also rank top for expected goals generated from set pieces. With the delivery quality provided by players such as Enzo Fernandez and Reece James, Chalobah is a natural target when the ball is swung into the box.
Brentford’s defensive record adds further appeal. They rank among the bottom sides for shots in the box conceded and have already allowed six big chances in their opening fixtures. A side that struggles to deal with pressure inside their own area is unlikely to relish defending repeated Chelsea corners and free-kicks.
Given Chalobah’s attacking intent, Chelsea’s league-leading set-piece output, and Brentford’s defensive vulnerability, backing him for at least one shot at goal looks a value angle this weekend.
- Best Bet: Trevoh Chalobah over 0.5 shots at 1/1 with Bet365
Newcastle Utd vs Wolves
Bruno Guimaraes looks a strong option in the player props market this weekend, with value in backing him to register at least one shot on target when Newcastle host Wolves at St James’ Park.
The Brazilian has been increasingly consistent in testing goalkeepers at home. He has now taken a shot on target in each of his last three league games at St James’ Park, underlining his willingness to shoot from range or arrive late in the box. Across his last 20 Premier League home appearances, Guimaraes has attempted a shot in 13 matches, building up a total of around 4.1 xG. That output is high for a central midfielder and shows he is more than capable of chipping in when Newcastle are on the front foot.
The matchup against Wolves adds further weight. Vitor Pereira’s side are bottom of the xPTS table and rank among the league’s worst for defensive metrics. They have the third-highest non-penalty xGA, concede an average of 4.33 shots on target per game, and allow 7.0 shots inside the box. They have also given up four big chances already, highlighting how frequently they allow opponents into dangerous positions.
With Newcastle strong favourites at home and Wolves struggling to contain even mid-level attacks, Guimaraes should see space to step forward and get an effort away. His recent record, combined with Wolves’ defensive frailty, makes 1+ shot on target an appealing bet this weekend.
- Best Bet: Bruno Guimaraes over 0.5 shots on target at 2/1 with Bet365
Combining Bruno Guimaraes to have a shot on target and then Trevoh Chalobah and Riccardo Calafiori to both have a single shot each will give you odds of 9/1 with Bet365
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