In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Bournemouth are in exceptional form, having dismantled Nottingham Forest last weekend and thrashed Newcastle 4-1 at St. James' Park the week before. Over the last four matches, they rank fourth for xPTS and maintain that position across the season. They also sit fifth in non-penalty xG ratio, averaging 1.69 npxG per game.
Offensively, only Manchester City and Liverpool have registered more shots on target than Bournemouth this season. At home, the Cherries rank third for shots on target and second for xG, generating a massive 1.93 xG per game at the Vitality Stadium.
However, they now face a Liverpool side in excellent form, though the Reds have been slightly vulnerable defensively on the road. They have conceded two or more goals in four of their 11 away games this season, keeping just five clean sheets. Tottenham and Newcastle both scored three against them, while even Southampton managed to put two past them.
There has also been a noticeable increase in shots on target conceded—from 3.2 per game in their first five away matches to 4.17 over the last six. That includes West Ham failing to register a shot on target in a heavy loss to Liverpool, which distorts the numbers slightly.
Justin Kluivert (Bournemouth) has been in top form. He has had 40 shots in 22 games, registering 18 shots on target in 18 starts. When starting, he has recorded at least one shot on target in 14 of 18 games. At 1.83 to have a shot on target, this looks a strong bet.
Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool) is likely to push forward and support the front three. Over his last four starts, he has attempted 20 shots and registered five on target. Bournemouth, despite their attacking strength, have been defensively open, keeping just four home clean sheets. Only six teams have conceded more shots on target than the Cherries.
- Best Bet: Justin Kluivert over 0.5 shots on target at 1.83 with Betfair
- Best Bet: Dominik Szobosziai over 0.5 shots on target at 2.0 with SpreadEx
Ipswich Town vs Southampton
It's a clash between the Premier League’s bottom two as Southampton travel to Ipswich. With relegation all but confirmed for the Saints, they may view this as one of the few remaining away games they can win. Meanwhile, Ipswich will feel that if they can’t secure three points against a side with just six all season, their fate is effectively sealed.
This could be a tense, scrappy affair, with both sides desperate for a win. A draw does little to help either team, though it would be slightly more beneficial for Ipswich depending on other results.
Southampton have been defensively fragile from set pieces, conceding 12 goals from dead-ball situations this season—the second-highest in the Premier League. No team has conceded more shots from set pieces than Southampton (113 in 23 games), and they also have the highest xGA from set plays, with 22.6% of their total goals conceded coming from dead-ball situations.
Ipswich, who scored from a set piece at Anfield last weekend, will look to exploit this weakness. With strong deliveries expected from their recent signing Julio Enciso, Ipswich’s centre-backs could be valuable options for shots on target.
Dara O’Shea has already registered 13 shots this season and looks a strong candidate to land a shot on target. Priced at 5.0, he offers good value. Jacob Greaves has managed seven shots in 13 games and is priced at 5.5 for a shot on target.
With Ipswich's dead-ball specialists delivering quality into the box, expect them to target Southampton’s biggest defensive weakness, making their centre-backs a solid value play in this crucial relegation battle.
- Best Bet: Dara O’Shea over 0.5 shots on target at 5.0 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Jacob Greave over 0.5 shots on target at 5.5 with Bet365
Everton vs Leicester
Everton head into this match struggling with injuries, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Armando Broja, and Dwight McNeil all sidelined. This leaves them short of attacking firepower, making it likely they will struggle to create many clear-cut chances. Everton have managed just 12 home goals this season, but that number is somewhat inflated. Three came in their 3-2 win over Tottenham, and another four in a 4-0 victory over Wolves. Excluding those two matches, they have scored just five goals in nine home games and have failed to score in six of their 11 matches at Goodison Park.
With Everton lacking creativity in open play, set pieces will likely become their best route to goal. Leicester have been particularly vulnerable from dead-ball situations, conceding 111 shots from set plays—the second-highest in the Premier League. They have conceded seven goals from an xG of 11.01, meaning they have underperformed defensively from set pieces and could be due to concede more. Nearly 30% of all shots Leicester have allowed this season have come from set pieces, highlighting a clear weakness.
This plays directly into James Tarkowski’s strengths. The Everton captain is dominant in aerial duels and a major threat from set plays. This season, he has registered 10 shots, all of which have come from headers. Given Leicester’s struggles in defending set pieces, Tarkowski is likely to be a big threat from corners and free kicks.
With Everton’s injury issues limiting their attacking options, expect them to target Leicester’s biggest weakness—set pieces—making Tarkowski a prime candidate to test the Foxes' backline.
- Best Bet: James Tarkowski 1+ shots on target at 4.1 with Unibet
Combining Dara O’Shea and James Tarkowski to have a header on target will give you odds of 29.25 with Skybet.
