In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Our “Shots” column delivered outstanding results throughout December. We placed 31 bets and achieved a profit of 13.56 units, translating to a 43% ROI. It could have been even better if Joelinton had headed the ball over the line at Old Trafford instead of using his shoulder or if Dan Burn had directed his header on target rather than narrowly across the box when he was well-placed to score.
However, let us not dwell too much on these missed opportunities and instead celebrate what was an excellent performance for the column throughout the month.
Tottenham vs Newcastle
Tottenham remain severely weakened in defence, with key players Micky van de Ven, Cristian Romero, and Ben Davies all ruled out due to injury, alongside goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario. Rodrigo Bentancur is suspended, and Destiny Udogie limped off in their last match. This leaves Spurs likely fielding a makeshift backline of Pedro Porro, Djed Spence, Radu Dragusin, and Archie Gray.
Newcastle should have enough quality, particularly from set pieces to trouble Spurs. Fabian Schar is suspended for the visitors, but Joelinton and Dan Burn could step up as significant threats in these scenarios. Only three Premier League teams have conceded a higher xGA from set pieces than Spurs this season, and just four teams have allowed more goals from dead-ball situations.
Tottenham have struggled at home recently, while Newcastle come into this game in excellent form, having secured commanding wins over Ipswich and Leicester (both 4-0), as well as victories over Aston Villa and Spurs themselves without conceding. Anthony Gordon and Lewis Hall will pose threats down the left-hand side, and if they deliver quality crosses, Joelinton will be well-placed to capitalise. Dan Burn is another key aerial weapon in set-piece situations.
Joelinton ranks among the top five players in the league for headed attempts, while Dan Burn has recorded 10 shots this season, seven of them with his head. With Spurs’ defensive struggles, Newcastle should have many opportunities to exploit these weaknesses and create dangerous chances.
- Best Bet: Dan Burn 1+ header on target at 5.5 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Joelinton 1+ header on target at 5.5 with Skybet
Fulham vs Ipswich Town
Ipswich will be buoyed by their impressive win over Chelsea in their last match. While Fulham have been excellent this season, they have shown vulnerabilities from set pieces, conceding the fourth-highest number of shots from such situations in the Premier League. Their xGA from dead-ball situations is the fifth highest, with 35% of their conceded shots coming from set pieces.
Ipswich are likely to adopt a similar approach to their games against Chelsea and Arsenal, defending deep and looking to capitalize on counterattacks and set pieces. Ipswich’s set-piece play has been effective, registering 68 shots and scoring four times this season, with 37% of their total efforts on goal coming from dead-ball situations.
In recent weeks, Ipswich have shifted to a back three, with Dara O’Shea moving to right-back when they have possession, while transitioning into a three-man central defence when defending. Luke Woolfenden has returned to the side alongside Jacob Greaves to form the back three. O’Shea has been pivotal in set pieces, recording 12 shots at goal across his 16 appearances this season. Woolfenden, despite playing only six matches this season, started against both Chelsea and Arsenal and previously registered an effort on target against Fulham.
Given Ipswich’s likely setup and their reliance on set pieces for attacking opportunities, it is surprising that O’Shea is available at 9.5 for a header on target and Woolfenden at 17. Both players, along with Jacob Greaves, will be key aerial threats and are expected to be in the box for every corner and set piece Ipswich take on Sunday.
- Best Bet: Dara O’Shea 1+ header on target at 9.5 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Luke Woolfenden 1+ header on target at 17.0 with Skybet
Liverpool vs Manchester Utd
Manchester United’s defensive struggles have been well-documented. Only Leicester and Southampton have a higher xGA from dead-ball situations, and only Southampton and Wolves have conceded more goals from set pieces. Newcastle did not create much from set pieces in their recent match against United, but both their goals came from crosses into the box, which United’s defence struggled to handle.
Liverpool are likely to dominate this game, generating plenty of corners and set-piece opportunities. This makes Virgil van Dijk an ideal candidate to register a header on target. Van Dijk has recorded 12 attempts at goal this season, with four on target and one goal. Against a United side that often looks disorganized and unsure of their defensive responsibilities, Van Dijk should have opportunities to capitalize.
Backing Van Dijk at 4.5 to have a header on target or 13 to score a header seems very appealing, given United’s recent vulnerabilities and Liverpool’s expected dominance in this matchup.
- Best Bet: Virgil van Dijk 1+ headed shot on target at 4.50 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Virgil van Dijk to score a header at 13.0 with Skybet
Wolves vs Nottingham Forest
No team has conceded more goals from set pieces than Wolves, with 15 allowed in their 19 matches. Only Leicester and Southampton have faced more shots from these situations. While Wolves have been unlucky, with an xGA of 6.27, their defensive frailties in dead-ball scenarios remain evident.
Since the managerial change, Wolves have improved, but it is worth noting that their recent results came against struggling opponents: a poor Leicester side, a disorganized Manchester United team, and a Spurs squad dealing with significant defensive injuries and struggling at home.
In contrast to Wolves’ issues, Nottingham Forest have been highly effective from set pieces. Only Crystal Palace and Arsenal have scored more goals from such situations, with Forest netting seven from 19 matches. Forest also have the third-highest xG from set pieces this season, and nearly 31% of their total shots come from dead-ball scenarios. In fact, no Premier League side has a higher percentage of xG from set pieces than Nottingham Forest.
Forest’s centre-back, Nikola Milenkovic, has been particularly threatening in the air, registering 13 headed attempts on goal in 18 appearances. Only five players across the league have managed more shots, and all of those are more attack-minded players. Since his arrival from Fiorentina, Milenkovic has been excellent. Prior to the Everton match (a 1-0 loss), he had recorded at least one shot in his last 10 games and managed a shot on target in three of his previous four.
Given Wolves’ poor defensive record from set pieces, Forest’s strong delivery, and Milenkovic’s aerial threat, we should expect at least one headed attempt on target from him in this match.
Best Bet: Nikola Milenkovic 1+ header on target at 6.50 with Skybet
Combining Nikola Milenkovic and Virgil van Dijk to have a header on target will give you odds of 29.25 with Skybet.
