In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
It was not the best column last week with two picks not starting their games and the other only lasting 17 minutes before being replaced due to injury.
Our shots on target betting picks
Real Madrid vs Pachuca
Real Madrid take on Pachuca looking to bounce back after a frustrating 1-1 draw with Al Hilal. Despite the result, Madrid dominated the game, registering nineteen shots and generating 2.46 expected goals. They missed a penalty, hit the woodwork, and generally lacked the finishing edge to take all three points. However, they also conceded 1.81 xG and allowed thirteen shots, which highlighted the defensive adjustment still needed under new manager Xabi Alonso.
Pachuca were unlucky in their opener, losing 2-1 to Salzburg despite conceding just ten shots and an xG against of 0.91. They stayed compact, played with structure, and should provide another disciplined test for Madrid. But the quality gap remains significant, and with Madrid needing a result, a strong response is expected.
One player to focus on from a betting angle is Gonzalo Garcia. With Kylian Mbappe still sidelined after a recent illness, Garcia is expected to start up front again. He was a standout in the draw with Al Hilal, scoring once and registering six shots, four of which were on target. That kind of output in a high-pressure debut suggests he will be heavily involved again. Given Real Madrid’s attacking intent, their expected dominance of possession, and Garcia’s positioning as the central striker, he should have no shortage of chances. Backing him to record at least two shots on target looks a strong bet, especially considering how often Madrid looked to play through him in the final third. With Alonso keen to get his ideas across and Pachuca likely to absorb pressure, Garcia should be central to Madrid’s efforts in front of goal.
- Best Bet: Gonzalo Garcia over 1.5 shots on target at 2.2 with Betway
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund head into their second match of the Club World Cup needing a response. A frustrating 0-0 draw against Fluminense in their opener has left them with little margin for error, and anything less than a win against Mamelodi Sundowns would put their hopes of progressing in real doubt. The pressure is on, and that should lead to a more aggressive, front-foot performance.
One player who could play a key role in that is Marcel Sabitzer. He has started 18 times for Dortmund this season, with 26 appearances in total, and has consistently looked to get involved in attacks from midfield. Over those 18 starts, he has taken 21 shots and hit the target eight times—solid output for a central midfielder. Even in the opening game where Dortmund created very little, Sabitzer still managed their only shot on target, a low-xG effort but a reminder of how often he looks to test the keeper from range.
Sundowns edged past Ulsan 1-0 in their opener but gave up nine shots and an xG of 1.02, which shows they are far from impenetrable. If Dortmund apply the kind of attacking pressure expected of them in a must-win scenario, Sabitzer should find opportunities to shoot, especially given his role on set pieces and possible involvement from the penalty spot. Backing him to register at least one shot on target looks like a well-priced bet.
- Best Bet: Marcel Sabitzer over 0.5 shots on target at 2.1 with Bet365
Salzburg vs Al Hilal
Al Hilal head into their second group game after an encouraging 1-1 draw with Real Madrid, a result that not only gives them belief but showed they can create real chances against elite opposition. They registered 13 shots with an xG of 1.88, a strong attacking return even if only two hit the target. Salzburg, in contrast, were fortunate to come away with a 2-1 win in their opener, conceding 17 shots and looking fragile throughout, especially in transition and between the lines.
That vulnerability should suit a player like Ruben Neves. He was central to everything Al Hilal did against Madrid, scoring their goal and taking two shots. Despite operating as one of the two deeper midfielders in front of the back four, his average position was far more advanced. He played like a deep-lying playmaker with license to push up, constantly involved in moving the ball into attacking areas.
Crucially, Neves is also on penalties and free kicks, giving him extra routes to goal. He does not rely on open-play touches in the box, he had just one against Madrid, but still found a way to score and consistently looked to strike from range. With Salzburg conceding so many shots last time out, Neves should again have the space and opportunity to test the keeper. Backing him to have at least two shots looks a well-supported play.
- Best Bet: Ruben Neves over 1.5 shots at 2.55 with Unibet
Backing Ruben Neves to have two or more shots, Marcel Sabitzer to have at least one shot on target and Gonzalo Garcia to register at least two efforts on target can be backed at 11.13 with Unibet.
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