In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Everton vs Tottenham
Tottenham have struggled defensively from set pieces this season, with the fourth-highest xGA from set pieces in the Premier League at 7.37 across their 20 games. They have conceded six goals and allowed 73 shots from these situations—the ninth-highest total in the league.
Adding to their defensive woes, Spurs are dealing with significant injury issues, with key players like Cristian Romero, Mickey van de Ven, Ben Davies, and Rodrigo Bentancur all unavailable.
Spurs’ recent form has been poor, with just two wins in their last 11 Premier League matches. On the road, they have managed only three clean sheets while conceding an average of 1.1 goals per game. Their defensive frailties, particularly from set pieces, could be exploited by Everton.
Although Sean Dyche has departed, some of his set-piece strategies remain part of Everton’s approach. With David Moyes now at the helm—a manager who employs a similar style—Everton could lean on dead-ball situations to break down Spurs.
Everton’s struggles in front of goal are well-documented, with just nine goals scored all season and only five in their last seven games at Goodison Park. Set pieces may provide the most realistic opportunity for them to find the net.
Centre-back James Tarkowski will likely be a focal point in these situations. While he has only registered nine shots this season, all from headers, and just two on target, Spurs’ defensive injury crisis presents a golden opportunity for him. Tarkowski is a strong candidate to register a header on target in this matchup, especially given Spurs’ struggles in defending set plays.
- Best Bet: James Tarkowski to have a header on target at 5.5 with Skybet
Nottingham Forest vs Southampton
Southampton are in deep trouble, effectively relegated, with their only remaining goal being to avoid setting the lowest points total in Premier League history. Their defensive frailties have been glaring, particularly from set pieces.
They have conceded the second-most goals from dead-ball situations, behind only Wolves, and no team has allowed more shots from set pieces. Southampton also have the highest xGA from these situations in the division, highlighting their inability to defend effectively.
They now travel to Nottingham Forest, a team that thrives on set pieces. Forest have scored the third-most goals from set plays, registered the third-highest number of shots, and boast the third-highest xG from these situations. This makes the matchup particularly challenging for Southampton, whose defensive struggles could be further exposed.
Two key players stand out for Forest as potential threats. Centre-back Murillo has been a consistent menace in set-piece situations, registering 17 shots in 20 games this season. He has managed at least one shot in 12 of his last 14 matches and is not only effective in the air but also willing to take long-range free kicks.
His centre-back partner, Nikola Milenkovic, is another major asset. Milenkovic is strong and aggressive in attacking set pieces, with 19 efforts on goal this season, four of which have been on target, resulting in two goals. He has registered at least one shot in 11 of his last 13 matches.
Given Southampton’s poor record in defending set pieces, Milenkovic looks like an excellent candidate to register a shot on goal. He’s available at 5.0 to land a header on target, but for slightly shorter odds at 4.4, backing him for any shot on target may be the better option. With Forest’s set-piece dominance and Southampton’s defensive issues, this match presents a prime opportunity for both Emilio and Milenkovic to cause havoc in the box.
- Best Bet: Murillo 1+ shot on target from outside the box at 6.5 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Nikola Milenkovic anytime scorer at 9.0 with Paddy
- Best Bet: Nikola Milenkovic 1+ shot on target at 4.40 with Unibet
Brentford vs Liverpool
Brentford host Liverpool in what promises to be an entertaining encounter, with the Bees well-positioned to trouble the visitors. Brentford’s games this season have averaged an incredible 4.55 goals, and at home, they have been prolific, scoring an average of 2.64 goals per match. They Bees have found the net in 10 of their 11 home games and scored two or more goals in eight of those fixtures. Against top sides like Manchester City and Arsenal, Brentford have successfully employed their counter-attacking strategy, scoring in both matches.
Striker Yoane Wissa is a standout candidate to register at least one shot on target. This season, Wissa has taken 42 shots, with 20 of those on target. At home, he has been particularly active, recording 27 attempts, hitting two or more shots in eight of his nine games at the Gtech Community Stadium. He has also managed a shot on target in seven of those nine games, including notable performances with five shots against Manchester City and two against Arsenal.
For this matchup, backing Wissa to have at least one shot on target at odds of 1.81 with Unibet looks like a solid choice. For those seeking a bigger payout, betting on him to register two shots on target is available at 4.6 and offers excellent value given his current form and Brentford’s attacking style. With Liverpool’s defensive vulnerabilities on the road, Wissa is well-positioned to test the goalkeeper and contribute to Brentford’s attacking threat.
- Best Bet: Yoane Wissa over 0.5 shots on target at 1.83 with Unibet
- Best Bet: Yoane Wissa over 1.5 shots on target at 4.6 with Unibet
Combining Nikola Milenkovic and James Tarkowski to have a header on target will give you odds of 27.50 with Skybet.
