In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Another successful week for our shots column, with both Harry Maguire and Larsen registering headers on target in the Wolves' victory over Manchester United for winners at 6.0 and 4.0. Ismaila Sarr also contributed with a shot on target adding 1.83 winner. This week, we are aiming for more of the same by focusing on teams that struggle defensively against set pieces.
Man Utd vs Newcastle
Newcastle travel to Manchester United, and once again, there is strong value in backing United to struggle against set pieces. United currently have the third-highest xGA from dead-ball situations in the Premier League, having conceded nine goals in this manner. Remarkably, 41% of the goals United have allowed this season have come from set pieces — the highest proportion in the league.
Additionally, they have conceded 62 shots from set pieces, ranking among the top eight in this category, with only Wolves conceding more goals from defending dead-ball situations.
While Newcastle are not typically prolific from set pieces, they have managed to score five goals in this manner, registering 65 shots, which is nearly 30% of their total attempts this season. With United lacking confidence and struggling to adapt to their manager’s style of play, the squad’s imbalances are being exposed, particularly in defending set-piece scenarios.
Two Newcastle players stand out as potential threats. Joelinton leads the team with 13 headed attempts on goal from his 17 appearances, while Dan Burn has registered seven headers from his 10 shots this season. Both players are well-equipped to exploit United’s weaknesses from free kicks and corners, and they could cause significant problems in this fixture. Backing either to make an impact from set pieces looks like a smart play.
- Best Bet: Dan Burn 1+ header on target at 6.5 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Joelinton 1+ header on target at 6.5 with Skybet
Crystal Palace vs Southampton
Crystal Palace have been one of the Premier League's most effective teams from set pieces this season, taking the third-highest number of shots from dead-ball situations with 73. They have scored six goals from these opportunities, the third-most in the league, and have generated 6.12 xG. Impressively, 33% of their goals have come from set pieces, a proportion only bettered by Everton.
Palace face a Southampton side that struggles defensively both from open play and set pieces. Only Leicester have conceded more xGA and shots from set pieces than Southampton this season. The Saints have allowed eight goals from set pieces, the third highest in the division, and despite a managerial change, their defensive frailties in dead-ball situations remain an issue.
Palace, without the suspended Marc Guehi, will look to Maxence Lacroix as a key aerial threat from set pieces. Lacroix is averaging 0.7 headed attempts per Premier League game this season, with 10 headers in 15 appearances from central defence. Without Guehi, he is likely to be the primary target on set pieces, making him a strong candidate to register a header on target against Southampton’s poor set-piece defence.
In addition, Ismaila Sarr is another potential threat, though his odds for a shot on target are too low to back. A more appealing option is Daniel Munoz, who has taken 18 shots in 17 games, including at least one in each of his last nine appearances. Munoz has also registered a shot on target in his last three matches, with six in his last seven games. Against a Southampton side conceding an average of 5.22 shots on target per away game, he looks well-placed to continue his streak and register another shot on target.
- Best Bet: Maxence Lacroix 1+ header on target at 5.0 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Maxence Lacroix over 0.5 shots at 1.80 with Bet365
- Best Bet: Daniel Munoz to have 1+ shot on target at 2.88 with Paddy
Tottenham vs Wolves
For the game against Wolves, Spurs will continue to be without their first-choice centre-back pairing, meaning Archie Gray and Radu Dragusin are expected to feature again, supported by Porro and Udogie as the full-backs. This defensive setup presents vulnerabilities, particularly from set pieces, which Wolves will be eager to exploit. Spurs have conceded the fourth-highest xGA from dead-ball situations this season (6.7), allowing 61 shots and five goals, with only four Premier League sides performing worse in this area.
Wolves head into this match in excellent form, having secured an impressive 2-0 home victory against Manchester United. Confidence will be high as they face a Tottenham side struggling for results and belief, with Spurs managing just one win in their last six games — a 5-0 triumph over bottom-placed Southampton.
Wolves, on the other hand, have won their last two matches without conceding, scoring five goals in the process. Matheus Cunha, if cleared to play, will be crucial for Wolves with his delivery from set pieces likely to cause trouble for Spurs' shaky backline. Another key player for Wolves is Jorgen Strand Larsen, who registered a header on target in the win against Manchester United. Given Spurs' defensive vulnerabilities, Larsen should find plenty of opportunities to test the hosts again.
This game looks set to favour Wolves, who have the form and the tools to exploit Spurs' defensive struggles, particularly from set pieces.
- Best Bet: Johan Strand Larsen 1+ headed shot on target at 3.50 with Skybet
Combining Maxence Lacroix and Johan Strand Larsen to have a header on target will give you odds of 17.50 with Skybet.
