Serie A outright winner odds and prediction: Goal-shy Napoli still offer value to punters

Things have become tight in the Serie A title race with a handful of teams enjoying some excellent winning runs.

It looks like being a wide-open battle for the Scudetto this season, with reigning champions Inter Milan at the head of the market going into 2025. However, with an unlikely team currently out in front, it would appear that it is all to play for in the Italian top flight.

Best Serie A outright winner odds

Selections to watch

Inter Milan

The Nerazzurri have had a perfect end to 2024, as they kept themselves just a point behind leaders Atalanta with a game in hand by blowing away Cagliari 3-0. It was Inter’s fifth successive league win, and took the champions’ tally to 14 unanswered goals across their previous three Serie A away games.

However, Inter Milan also lacked a fixture this week due to their Supercoppa final match against bitter rivals AC, and thus have two games in hand on leaders Napoli. 

However, it was a torrid night for Simone Inzaghi’s men, who were defeated 3-2 after initially taking a 2-0 lead through goals from Lautaro Martinez and Mehdi Taremi.

Inzaghi will be hoping to avenge the final defeat by continuing Inter’s fantastic league form and grabbing six points from their games in hand.

Atalanta

No fixture for Atalanta this week meant that they sadly lost ground in the title race, as Napoli convincingly defeated Fiorentina 3-0 away from home to go top of the Serie A table.

It has been a challenging few weeks for La Dea. After just barely managing to salvage a 1-1 draw with Lazio, thanks to a last-gasp goal from substitute Marco Brescianini, they were then defeated 2-0 by Inter Milan in the Italian Cup.

The game was widely criticised for being played in Saudi Arabia, which caused a poor atmosphere and a lack of fans. 

However, with a game to play on Napoli and a superior goal difference, Atalanta will certainly have the chance to regain top spot in the near future. 

Although there is much scepticism over their ability to generate the staying power necessary to stay at the top, Atalanta’s flexibility in attacking options can only sustain their momentum into the new year. Of course, 12-goal top scorer award contender Mateo Retegui is the main focal point, but with Ademola Lookman trailing his teammate by just three, there’s ample backup in the final third.

Napoli

Napoli duly capitalised on their rivals’ lack of fixtures this week by securing a stylish 3-0 win over Fiorentina. 

David Neres, Romelu Lukaku and Scott McTominay were all on target to hand the Italian giants a crucial victory and see them surge to top of the table.

Despite their rivals still needing to play, it is comforting for manager Antonio Conte to see his team making the most of every opportunity to pick up points.

Punters should also consider their low scoring when making a final call. Clearly missing the services of Victor Osimhen, Napoli have scored 15 fewer goals than Inter, and 13 less than Atalanta. Their struggle to find the net could ultimately cost them if it goes unaddressed.

Who will win Serie A? Here’s our prediction

After five straight top-three finishes, Inter are still positioned as favourites for a title defence, which no team has managed since Juventus in 2020. They are still our pick, but for a decent w/o Inter option, we’re backing Napoli.

🔗 Share on Social Media